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zedsdead

macrumors 68040
Jun 20, 2007
3,411
1,164
Latest rumors from Gurman are suggesting Spring 2024 at the earliest, possibly WWDC 2025.
 

mcnallym

macrumors 65816
Oct 28, 2008
1,189
918
don’t expect them till about 6 months after the m4 mbp 14/16” machines launch.

apple consistently launches the MBP with the Max before the Studio, once the initial sales of the MBP done then the Studio with the Max and Ultra SoC will launch, possibly with a new Mac Pro now.

with M4 in the new iPad then an M3 Ultra very unlikely now and will skip the M3 gen on Studio.
 

Schnitzel1979

macrumors member
Oct 4, 2013
67
36
I really would like to get a Studio M4 Ultra, but will get if available a Mac Mini M4 Pro or a Macbook Pro M4 Max at the end of the year; if they are not being released I can wait for Studio
 

HobeSoundDarryl

macrumors G5
Contrary to some pattern of releases we THINK we see in just a few generations of releases (and only 2 of chips for this particular Mac), I buy the speculation that Apple will FLIP the order of releases to get the the MAX & ULTRA releases for these Macs out FIRST... and then work down to the base model. Why?
  • Apparently, Macs with MAX & ULTRA are the most profitable Macs sold on a per-unit-sale basis. Need I write more? Modern Apple loves their 💰💰💰 Shareholders rejoice!
  • As is, rolling out ULTRA last when we all know the next gen MAX is then only a few months away and it seems to have a pattern of overtaking ULTRA specs makes the window to be "king of the hill" limited to only those few months. Thus, we are well trained to covet "our most powerful Mac" but wait a few months to get "out most powerful Mac" that comes with next-gen MAX chip and save a substantial amount of money.
If I'm Apple, I want my most profitable (unit sale) Macs to be king of the power hill for the entire generation... thus I'm motivated to flip the release schedule from Mx, then Mx PRO & MAX, then Mx ULTRA to the reverse of that, starting with the Mx ULTRA. Nothing else needs to change, nor does this have to adversely affect higher volume laptop sales. However, those who burn for "most powerful" will then face needing to pay the premium for "most powerful" instead of finding a little patience to get the "most powerful" by waiting on Mnext MAX just a few months later.

I own an ULTRA and regret it. It's not 2X faster than MAX even though it is 2 MAX chips linked together. And it cost a LOT more (relatively) vs. waiting for the next-gen MAX chip that arrived only a few months later. I won't make that mi$take again... unless Apple does flip the schedule.

If you buy this speculation, perhaps the wait is NOT until 2025. Per this, I expected new ULTRAs at WWDC and now I expect them to show in a historically oddball event BEFORE the usual Fall schedule. But if not, I think they arrive in the same fall schedule (PRO & MAX & ULTRA) on route to then entirely flipping to be ULTRA, then PRO & MAX and then base in the M5 generation.

To be determined, but we're all best guessing and this is as good a guess as any other. Best supporting point is "most profitable" since we know that Apple Inc chases every extra nickel.

If I'm a Mac buyer now, I wait out the Fall releases... unless this surprise event proves out a portion of this wild speculation first.
 
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loby

macrumors 68000
Jul 1, 2010
1,852
1,467
Sounds like we just have to wait until Apple releases the new M4. It is getting a little harder lately to predict when the "latest-and-greatest" will come out. Feels like we are playing the stock market and just running on rumors that are a "just if" situation.
 
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theluggage

macrumors 604
Jul 29, 2011
7,667
7,826
One question is whether there is going to even be a M4 Ultra as we know it, or a M4 Max/Ultra Studio.

The Ultrafusion interface seems to have disappeared from the M3 Max - whether that is because M3 was a stopgap, or because they've dropped the idea (or shelved it until this 3D chiplet thing is real) we don't know. They've also moved back on the whole 'Jade Chop', 'one die design for the entire Pro range' idea and made the M3 Pro a distinct die rather than a Max with one end 'sliced off'.

There's also talk of whether they might produce a new server-grade chip, which could go in a Mac Pro or could just be used by Apple for their own services - but would likely have a definite AI focus rather than the media creation focus of the Studio and 2023 Pro.

If the M4 Max will run in a MacBook Pro it will probably run in a Mini enclosure - in fact, that's probably been true with M1-3 with the Studio really existing because they needed the enclosure & huge heatsink for the Ultra version.

So perhaps we'll just see a M4 Max Mini and a new Mac Pro with the rumoured "server" chip (which might turn out more like the Mac Studio than the 2023 Pro but surely won't start at $2000!)

Apparently, Macs with MAX & ULTRA are the most profitable Macs sold on a per-unit-sale basis.
[my emphasis]
Sure, but they sell in smaller numbers to a less price-sensitive market. In the case of the Ultra, which is only used in the high-end Studio and the Mac Pro, that's a lot of R&D to earn back from what are probably their lowest-selling units. Expecting to charge 2x the price for the Ultra when it doesn't give 2x the value might have been Apple's mistake.

I own an ULTRA and regret it. It's not 2X faster than MAX even though it is 2 MAX chips linked together.
Doubling the number of GPU and CPU cores was never going to double the real-world performance other than in a few particular cases (half of which are synthetic benchmarks - Geekbench is 1.9x faster!) Efficient multi-threading is hard, and some applications simply won't use all of the cores. That much is no different from Intel.

Twice the Media Engines & Neural Engines won't help unless your software uses them. For some users, twice the RAM (& RAM bandwidth) or extra TB ports will make the difference - and the Mac Pro relies on the extra PCIe lanes from the otherwise redundant SSD controller, but doubling everything - including the "economy" CPU cores - is pretty inefficient. Still, if your workflow can light up all the CPU and GPU cores or make use use of all the Media Engines then the M2 Ultra will still beat the M3 Max.

Even the M3 Max won't help you much if you're not lighting up all of the cores on a M3 Pro. It's better bangs-per-buck than the Ultra partly because of the new core designs and partly because all the extra cores (over the Pro) are performance cores.
 
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ChrisA

macrumors G5
Jan 5, 2006
12,702
1,857
Redondo Beach, California
If I'm Apple, I want my most profitable (unit sale) Macs to be king of the power hill for the entire generation......

I own an ULTRA and regret it. It's not 2X faster
Yes, it really is (almost) twice as fast. The problem is you do not have a workload that fully utilizes the "Ultra."

It is like claiming your Fararri is not twice as frast as my Toyota Prius because we both drive the save 60 MPH on the freeway. Very few people really need the faster "Ultra" and they buy therm for ther same reason people buy the Fararri, not to reduce the time of their moring commute to work.

Nest, I have to ask ""Which is the most profitable model?" I think you calculate profit by multiplying Apple's markup on each computer times the number sold in the reporting period. So quanity really does matter. The bottom line is just that, "How much money in total did you make" so the low-end computrs might be more profitable, if they are sole n much higher numbers.

The best advice about buying is always to buy a computer ONLY if the current computer is not doing what you need and then do not wait, just buy what you need whaen you need it. If you have ther option to wait, then you really do not need a computer, You are just a Fararri collector.
 
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