French Parliament Risks Gridlock After a Surprising Left-Wing Victory

Welcome back to World Brief, where we’re looking at the results of French parliamentary elections, what to expect at the 2024 NATO summit, and Russia-India relations.

A Left-Wing Comeback

A surprise left-wing surge in France’s second and final round of parliamentary elections on Sunday left the European Union’s No. 2 economy headed toward governing gridlock. Early projections last week showed the far-right National Rally party on track to possibly win an absolute majority in parliament, yet significant turnout—the highest since 1981—skyrocketed the leftist New Popular Front (NFP) alliance to success and pushed the National Rally into third place.

No party or bloc achieved an absolute majority, though, which means the country now has a hung parliament, with none of the three main blocs having a clear path to form a government—an unprecedented situation in modern France. The NFP took first place with around 178 seats, at least 47 more seats than it secured in the 2022 legislative elections. Some experts are calling this the French left’s most surprising victory since François Mitterrand won the presidency as a Socialist Party candidate in 1981. NFP leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s radical France Unbowed party secured the most seats in the bloc.

French President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist Ensemble coalition came in second, winning around 150 seats—around 95 less seats than it did in 2022. Macron’s own approval rating plummeted to 26 percent after he called for the snap elections on June 9, according to an Ifop poll published last month. He will remain president until 2027.

The far-right National Rally came in third place with around 142 seats, at least 53 more seats than it won in 2022 and by far the most seats secured in the party’s history. This is in line with other far-right gains across Europe. “The tide is rising,” prominent National Rally figure Marine Le Pen said on Sunday. “It didn’t rise high enough this time, but it’s still rising. And as a result, our victory, in reality, is only delayed.”

Some experts believe that the National Rally would have taken first place had France’s left-wing and centrist parties not worked together to remove more than 200 candidates from tight three-way races in a bid to undermine the far right’s popularity.

Now comes the even harder part: In order to secure the majority needed to pass laws, the centrist and leftist blocs will likely have to work together to avoid parliamentary gridlock. But France doesn’t have a robust tradition of rival political camps coming together to form coalition governments, and some of Macron’s allies have ruled out working with some of the parties in the leftist coalition.

Mélenchon is widely disliked by many members of Macron’s Ensemble coalition—and even by some within his own NFP bloc—for his far-left politics. Mélenchon seeks to reverse many of Macron’s reforms, implement a public spending program partly financed by tax hikes, and take a tougher stance on Israel for its war in Gaza.

Mélenchon urged Macron on Sunday to name a new prime minister, arguing that the president has a “duty” to choose a leader from the NFP coalition. However, because the NFP did not win an absolute majority, it cannot realistically force his hand, so Macron is delaying that decision for now. He refused Prime Minister Gabriel Attal’s offer of resignation on Monday to “ensure the stability of the country.”

“We need someone who offers consensus,” Socialist Party leader Olivier Faure said. But whether such a consensus figure will emerge from the intense political negotiations expected to take place in the coming days remains to be seen.

Today’s Most Read

• Europe Alone by FP Contributors
• What If Russia Wins by Carl Bildt
• America Is in Denial About NATO’s Future by Daniel Treisman

The World This Week

Tuesday, July 9: Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi concludes his two-day meetings with Russian President Vladimir Putin before heading to Austria.

Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva travels to Bolivia.

Thursday, July 11: The 2024 NATO summit, held in Washington, D.C., concludes.

South Korea’s central bank determines its interest rate.

Friday, July 12: German Chancellor Olaf Scholz hosts Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida.

Monday, July 15: Syria holds legislative elections.

Rwanda holds general elections.

What We’re Following

All eyes on Washington. Dozens of heads of state and government traveled to Washington on Monday for the 2024 NATO summit. The conference marks 75 years since the alliance’s creation. Yet the bloc’s security remains worrisome as Russia continues its two-year war against Ukraine, far-right parties gain prominence across Europe, and the United States prepares for a contentious presidential election.

The Russia-Ukraine war is expected to dominate much of the multiday affair, though Kyiv’s NATO membership bid will remain off the table. Instead, NATO will announce a new Ukraine command center in Germany as well as a “bridge” for other nations’ future accession.

Growing concern that U.S. President Joe Biden will not win reelection in November has also spurred efforts to “Trump-proof” the alliance. Former U.S. President Donald Trump is a longtime NATO critic and has promised to cut Ukraine funding and allow Russia to attack NATO countries that do not meet the alliance’s minimum defense spending commitment.

For more NATO coverage, subscribe to FP’s Situation Report, which will publish a daily special edition during the summit this week.

Russian politics. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi flew to Moscow on Monday to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin. The two met on the sidelines of a Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit last September as well as during Putin’s state visit to India in 2021 and Modi’s state visit to Russia in 2019. Modi aims to reaffirm his nation’s “strategic partnership” with the Kremlin despite India’s growing ties with the United States; Moscow is a top trading and defense partner of New Delhi’s, and India has so far avoided condemning Russia’s war against Ukraine.

Meanwhile, Russian forces launched a widespread missile campaign across Ukraine on Monday, with one missile partially destroying a children’s hospital in Kyiv. At least 36 people were killed and 137 others injured in the attacks. The rare daylight bombardment occurred during the morning rush hour.

Moscow has repeatedly been accused of targeting civilians as well as civilian infrastructure. “Russia cannot be unaware of where its missiles are landing and must be held fully accountable for all its crimes: against individuals, against children and against humanity as a whole,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky posted on Telegram on Monday.

New leadership. Moderate candidate Masoud Pezeshkian won Iran’s presidential runoff on Saturday against conservative hard-liner Saeed Jalili. Unlike his late predecessor, Ebrahim Raisi, Pezeshkian seeks detente with the West, advocates for political pluralism, and favors some reforms, such as easing enforcement of Iran’s mandatory hijab law. This is a “new chapter” for Tehran, Pezeshkian said. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, however, remains the top decision-maker in the country.

Also on Saturday, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer convened his cabinet for the first time since being elected last Thursday. He announced plans to reverse the Conservatives’ asylum deportation plan to Rwanda, calling it “dead and buried before it started.” He promised to continue negotiations with the National Health Service to add 40,000 new appointment, scan, and operation slots a week to shorten waitlist times. And he set off on a tour of each of the United Kingdom’s four nations—England, Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland—to “reset” tense relations.

Odds and Ends

Taylor Swift has won 14 Grammys, starred in several documentaries, and impacted nations’ GDPs to such a degree that economists have coined a term, Swiftonomics, for the pop star’s influence. Now, she can add inspiring a town name to her resume. The western German city of Gelsenkirchen has officially renamed itself “Swiftkirchen” (or “Swift’s Church”) ahead of the singer’s scheduled stop there later this month as part of her Eras Tour. Tens of thousands of people are expected to attend the three concert days, scheduled for July 17-19.