Iranians Go to the Polls to Elect a New President

Welcome back to World Brief, where we’re looking at Iran’s presidential election, foreign-policy talking points during the first U.S. presidential debate, and a controversial reform bill in Argentina.

Who Will Succeed Raisi?

Iran held an early presidential election on Friday to elect a successor to the late President Ebrahim Raisi, who died in a helicopter crash last month. Tehran extended polling station hours on Friday, and results are expected on Saturday. If no candidate receives a simple majority, then a runoff will be held on July 5.

Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, holds ultimate authority over all major domestic and foreign-policy decisions, but the president oversees day-to-day operations and helps set the country’s tone abroad. The Khamenei-appointed Guardian Council, consisting of six clerics and six jurists, must vet all candidates. Of an initial pool of 80 people, only six were approved to run. Two hard-line candidates dropped out this week to call for unity against the only moderate candidate in the race: former Health Minister Masoud Pezeshkian.

According to the latest preelection polls published by the government-run Imam Sadiq University, Pezeshkian is leading with 24.4 percent of the vote. A single father and ethnic Azeri, Pezeshkian calls for detente with the West, political pluralism, economic reform, and some social change. “We will respect the hijab law, but there should never be any intrusive or inhumane behavior toward women,” Pezeshkian said after casting his vote on Friday, referring to the killing of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini by Iran’s morality police for allegedly not wearing a hijab properly.

Experts believe that the Guardian Council approved Pezeshkian’s campaign to increase voter turnout among Iranians who boycotted March’s parliamentary elections, which had a record-low turnout of 41 percent. “The durability, strength, dignity, and reputation of the Islamic Republic depend on people’s presence,” Khamenei said on Friday. Turnout is expected to remain low, though, in part due to public discontent over Tehran violently cracking down on anti-government protests in 2022.

Pezeshkian’s main rival is hard-liner candidate and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, polling at 23.4 percent. Ghalibaf served as the air force commander of Iran’s powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps from 1997 to 2000 and has repeatedly run (unsuccessfully) for president. He champions deepening ties with Russia and China, bolstering Iran’s support for Hamas and Hezbollah, and advancing Tehran’s nuclear program to continue to defy the West. However, Ghalibaf faces allegations of financial corruption while he was mayor of Tehran as well as ethical concerns regarding his family’s extensive spending abroad—both of which he has denied.

Former nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili is the most hard-line conservative candidate. He served for four years in Khamenei’s office and opposes any relations with the United States. Jalili is polling at 21.5 percent. Behind him is Mostafa Pourmohammadi, a cleric and former counterintelligence director who served as a member of the committee that oversaw thousands of political prisoner executions at Tehran’s infamous Evin Prison in 1988, though he has downplayed his role in the affair. Pourmohammadi has been critical of Iran’s support for Russia, arguing that Tehran is not receiving enough reciprocity.

All four candidates have proposed different ways to counter Western sanctions on Iran, which have isolated the country’s economy from the rest of the world; advance nuclear technology following the Trump administration withdrawing from the nuclear deal in 2018; and support Islamist groups in the Middle East.

Today’s Most Read

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• Biden and Trump’s Debate Could Make Foreign-Policy History by Jeremi Suri

What We’re Following

Trump-Biden showdown. U.S. President Joe Biden and former U.S. President Donald Trump appeared together on live television late Thursday for their first presidential debate ahead of the November election. Both candidates received heavy criticism—Biden for his lackluster, fumbling performance and Trump for his numerous false assertions.

On foreign policy, immigration at the U.S. southern border took center stage. Trump repeatedly attacked Biden for allowing an influx of migrants to enter the country, falsely accusing them of driving a surge in crime rates. Studies show that immigrants are less likely to commit crimes than U.S.-born citizens. Biden retaliated by spotlighting Trump’s widely condemned family separation policy.

The two also clashed over the United States’ role in NATO, with Biden advocating for continued support of Ukraine and Trump accusing the alliance’s other members of not contributing enough to defense spending. Both candidates expressed support for Israel in its war against Hamas, but Biden appealed for an end to the fighting, whereas Trump said, “We should let [Israel] go and let them finish the job.”

Even more voting. Mongolia held parliamentary elections on Friday, with initial results showing that the ruling Mongolian People’s Party won a slim majority—taking around 70 seats in the 126-seat assembly. This majority is much tighter than Mongolia’s last election. The Asian nation is sandwiched between two major autocratic countries—Russia and China—and corruption scandals have rocked its parties. Voters’ primary concerns included unemployment, high inflation, climate change, and lack of water access.

Looking ahead, Mauritania will hold a presidential election on Saturday in a test of its fragile democracy. The country has experienced a peaceful transfer of power only once, in 2019, when then-President Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz chose not to seek a third term. Mauritania has been a military dictatorship for nearly all of its 64 years as an independent nation and is surrounded by coup-led countries. Seven candidates are in the running, yet incumbent President Mohamed Ould Ghazouani is expected to win.

To round out the weekend, France will hold snap parliamentary elections on Sunday. The far-right National Rally and its allies are expected to secure 36 percent of the vote versus the 20 percent that President Emmanuel Macron’s Renaissance party is expected to win. This is in line with a larger far-right surge across Europe, with many people holding harsher anti-immigration stances.

Reform legislation. Argentina’s lower house approved President Javier Milei’s controversial reform bills on Friday—cementing his first major legislative win. The legislation privatizes state entities and boosts private investment in a bid to buoy Argentina’s struggling economy. However, months of massive public discontent have forced Milei’s party to water down the policies, scrapping some 362 of the originally proposed 600 articles.

“More Argentines are resorting to desperate measures such as bartering to put food on their tables as the country weathers an economic crisis,” Argentine journalist Lautaro Grinspan wrote in Foreign Policy. Labor unions, teachers, transportation workers, health care providers, and government employees have all organized strikes since Milei came into office last December.

Major cybercrime raid. Indonesian authorities announced on Friday that they had detained 103 foreign nationals during a raid in Bali this week for allegedly misusing their residence permits and running a cybercrime operation. At least 14 of them are suspected of being from Taiwan, the Taiwanese mission in Indonesia said. The 91 men and 12 women arrested will be deported in the coming days.

“During the inspection, we know that they are targeting people in Malaysia. They did their activities in Indonesia, but the victims are in other countries, so it is very difficult to fulfill the criminal elements,” said Safar Muhammad Godam, Indonesia’s director of immigration supervision and enforcement. The Directorate General of Immigration announced that it will conduct another operation soon to monitor foreign citizens in Bali.

What in the World?

Why did Kenyans protest at the country’s Parliament on Tuesday?

A. To oppose the Kenyan-led police mission in Haiti
B. To oppose a new finance bill that would raise taxes
C. To oppose financial aid to Israel
D. To oppose a new security pact with Russia

Odds and Ends

Denmark has had enough with cow farts. Copenhagen announced on Tuesday that it will begin taxing methane emissions from cows, sheep, and pigs beginning in 2030. It will be the first country to do so in a bid to lower greenhouse gas emissions by 70 percent from 1990 levels by the end of the decade. A typical Danish cow produces 6 metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent per year. Maybe they should lay off the beans?

And the Answer Is��

B. To oppose a new finance bill that would raise taxes

The protests may come as a shock to observers in the United States, where Kenyan President William Ruto has been feted—all while his popularity at home sank further and further, FP’s Robbie Gramer writes.

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