India’s Small Opposition Victory

India’s election calculus is tricky. When Narendra Modi led the Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to power in 2014, he increased his party’s parliamentary seat tally to 282 from 116, essentially by gaining 12 percentage points of the popular vote. It was the first time since 1984 that a single Indian party won enough seats to form a government on its own.

The Indian National Congress party led the ruling coalition that Modi and the BJP defeated in 2014; the party’s vote share fell by 9 percentage points, but its seats dropped from 206 to a mere 44. Five years later, the BJP’s vote share rose again, to 37 percent, giving Modi’s party 303 seats. Congress increased its number of seats to 52, but as in 2014, that wasn’t even enough to merit a formal leader of the opposition in parliament.

In the six-week national election that concluded this month, the BJP’s vote share dropped only marginally, to around 36 percent, but its number of seats fell dramatically, to 240—causing the party to lose its majority. Although Congress’s vote share rose modestly to around 21 percent, its seats increased to 99. As a result, India will have an official leader of the opposition for the first time in a decade. Rahul Gandhi, the Congress party leader and heir to India’s most illustrious political dynasty, may well play that role.

That may seem like a small achievement for India’s beleaguered opposition—and the election result was still the third-worst performance for Congress since India’s first vote in 1952—but it represents a change surprising and seismic enough for some analysts to conclude that Modi’s latest victory was “Pyrrhic,” and that the opposition now has a foundation to win in 2029. As the former British Prime Minister Harold Wilson quipped, “A week is a long time in politics”—and five years an eternity.

In 2029, Modi will be 78 years old, but this year, he still ran a campaign based on his own record and personality. The BJP’s manifesto included more than 50 photographs of Modi. Much commentary about the results has focused on Modi’s declining popularity. Given his political dominance, it is natural for his critics to enjoy a moment of schadenfreude. On the campaign trail, Modi’s rhetoric sounded more shrill, critical of minorities, and insulting toward his opponents; during the election, he even implied that he was divinely ordained to lead India.

This year’s election has also undermined the argument that Modi’s main rival, Rahul Gandhi, is a political lightweight overwhelmed by India’s complexities. Gandhi is descended from three former prime ministers, including India’s first, Jawaharlal Nehru. (His mother, Sonia, serves in the upper house of parliament.) Now 54, Gandhi has been a member of parliament since 2004, winning six of the seven elections that he has contested. Yet the BJP has carried out a relentless and remarkably effective propaganda campaign against him. Modi has described him as a shehzada, or crown prince, while BJP ministers have dismissed him as Pappu, a pejorative term for a young boy of limited intelligence.

Unlike Modi, Gandhi does not assert that he has all the answers; he listens, an approach that may have helped him during the election. He likes to engage the public, and since September 2022 he has led two long marches across the country—the Bharat Jodo Yatra (Unite India March) and the Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra (Unite India for Justice March)—that electrified the masses and transformed his image. According to some estimates, Gandhi wrested 41 parliamentary seats from areas where he marched. He talked to constituents, listened to voters, and spoke about social justice, women’s emancipation, empowering the weak and the dispossessed, and bringing people together.

Those topics may seem mawkish, but India’s last decade has been a period of considerable strife. Discrimination against Muslims has grown, with mosques targeted or claimed by Hindus, homes bulldozed, and interfaith marriages discouraged. The triumphal inauguration of a Hindu temple—sanctioned by the Indian Supreme Court—on the site of a mosque razed in 1992 only further alienated Muslims. The BJP’s policy of imposing the Hindi language in states where it is not spoken widely has fueled animosity. Youth unemployment has risen in many parts of the country, along with inequality.

As in the past, Modi’s campaign focused on divisive issues—but more voters than in the last two elections seemed to listen to Gandhi this time around. These voters likely don’t care about more Indians being listed in global rankings of billionaires; they are uninterested in gleaming high-rises and malls, speedier trains, superior airports, or toll roads connecting long distances. Their concerns are for more access to water, food, electricity, jobs, and justice. Gandhi seemed to fashion the Congress manifesto to respond to those concerns.

This is not to suggest that, if elected to power, the Congress party would meet these perennial needs. Having ruled India for 54 of its 76 years since independence, Congress must bear the blame for India’s lack of development. The party deserves credit for introducing economic liberalization in 1991, but its support for free-market reforms has often been cautious rather than enthusiastic. Furthermore, although Gandhi speaks of harmony, there have been several disturbances under Congress party rule in India—the most notorious being the massacre of Sikhs in 1984 in retaliatory violence after the assassination of Prime Minister Indira Gandhi, Rahul’s grandmother.

Nonetheless, Gandhi’s spirited campaign, decency, and collegiality stood in marked contrast to Modi’s personalized and abrasive style. Gandhi seemed to avoid a personality cult by building a consensus-driven campaign and not projecting himself as the face of the opposition alliance. In the leadup to the election, he continued to be ridiculed as an entitled politician, but he focused on his message. And wherever he marched, he chipped votes away from the BJP. One analysis showed that between 600,000 and 700,000 votes going the other way in 30 constituencies would have led to a different outcome.

The BJP has portrayed itself as pro-business, and analysts sympathetic to the BJP have described Congress as leftist, with BJP leaders reinforcing the link. Indeed, Congress introduced many welfare schemes for the poor—but the BJP has not canceled any of them during its time in power and has increased support for some programs. Historically, Congress was a centrist or center-left party reliant on the support of Indian businesses that pursued a prudent fiscal policy. The party was distrustful of private capital and free-market economics. But it was also Congress that took early steps in liberalization, invested in technology, and boosted India’s telecoms network.

For Congress, the road ahead remains long, but its rejuvenation raises interesting possibilities. Most Indian voters are too young to remember a Gandhi—or Nehru—as prime minister. Now, there could soon be three Gandhis in parliament: On Tuesday, Rahul Gandhi’s sister, Priyanka, announced that she would contest one of the two seats that her brother won during this election. Some observers see Priyanka as more charismatic and savvier than Rahul.

Furthermore, a sizable segment of India’s population is under the age of 30, and this generation has rising expectations and aspirations—including an impatience to get rich. Can Congress reinvent itself as India’s so-called banyan tree party that includes everyone under its shade? The BJP offers a muscular nationalism with angry overtones; Gandhi promises that he wants to revive an older idea of India, based on equality and tolerance. Do these younger voters want a calmer, gentler India?

Indian politics has entered a new phase, and the time to ignore Rahul Gandhi may be over. He may still never become India’s prime minister—after all, it seems unlikely that someone from the Gandhi family would want to lead a shaky coalition. But even if he simply persists in emphasizing equality, justice, and empathy, Gandhi will have played a transformative role in Indian politics.

The last decade has shown India’s angry and assertive side, but its founding fathers built the country’s reputation as a soft power that punched above its weight. Reclaiming such moral authority has its virtues. The rules are changing in India, and Gandhi may not only be the son who rises, but also the son who surprises.