Putin Proposes Cease-Fire in Ukraine With Extensive Territorial Conditions

Welcome back to World Brief, where we’re looking at Russia’s land aspirations in Ukraine, South Africa’s new national unity government, and G-7 talks on China.

A Fifth of Ukraine’s Land

Russian President Vladimir Putin promised on Friday to order an immediate cease-fire in Ukraine and begin peace negotiations if Kyiv and its Western allies agree to a series of conditions. These include Ukraine withdrawing all of its troops from the four Russian-occupied territories of Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk, and Zaporizhzhia; the West lifting all sanctions imposed on Moscow; and Kyiv dropping its NATO membership bid.

Moscow does not control all of the territory in these four regions, meaning that a Ukrainian surrender on these conditions would give Russia more land than it currently occupies. Combined with the Crimean Peninsula, which Russia illegally annexed in February 2014, this would be a loss of more than one-fifth of Ukraine’s sovereign territory.

“Our principled position is that Ukraine’s status must be a neutral, nonaligned, free of nuclear weapons,” Putin said. Friday’s proposal is the most concrete set of conditions to stop the conflict that Putin has offered since the war began in February 2022. He has previously suggested that negotiations take into account “the realities of today,” which some experts have interpreted as meaning current battle lines.

The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry immediately denounced Putin’s proposal, saying the Russian president’s goal is “to mislead the international community, undermine diplomatic efforts aimed at achieving a just peace, and split the unity of the world over the goals and principles of the United Nations Charter.” Kyiv reiterated its position that Russia must withdraw all of its forces from Ukraine’s internationally recognized borders.

The proposal came just one day before Switzerland is set to host a two-day peace conference on the Russia-Ukraine war. Representatives from at least 90 countries and organizations will attend, with key guests including Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky; U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris; the leaders of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, and the United Kingdom; Turkey’s and Hungary’s foreign ministers; and a delegation from India.

Notably absent will be a delegation from China, which declined the invitation, and Putin, who was not invited and said the event is “just another ploy to divert everyone’s attention, reverse the cause and effect of the Ukrainian crisis, [and] set the discussion on the wrong track.” The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry said the timing of Putin’s cease-fire proposal is a sign that the Kremlin is trying to undermine the conference’s efforts, accusing Putin of being “afraid of a real peace.”

In November 2022, Zelensky outlined a 10-point peace proposal, which included the restoration of Ukraine’s “territorial integrity” under the U.N. Charter as well as the return of Crimea. Last February, Beijing released a 12-point peace plan that, despite Putin’s backing, has achieved little momentum.

Meanwhile, Ukraine’s allies have doubled down on their commitment to Kyiv. On Friday, NATO defense ministers finalized an agreement that gives the alliance greater control over military assistance and training for Ukraine. NATO countries supply more than 99 percent of all of Kyiv’s military support, “so it makes sense that NATO takes on a greater role in these efforts,” alliance chief Jens Stoltenberg said. On Thursday, the G-7 agreed to issue $50 billion in loans to Kyiv using interest from frozen Russian assets.

Today’s Most Read

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What We’re Following

National unity government. South Africa’s African National Congress (ANC) party agreed on Friday to work with the opposition Democratic Alliance to create a national unity government. This is the first time that the ANC has been forced to create a coalition government during its three-decade hold on power—marking the most significant political shift in South African politics since the first post-apartheid elections were held in 1994. The ANC lost its parliamentary majority during general elections in May.

“Today marks the beginning of a new era where we put our differences aside and unite for the betterment of all South Africans,” Sihle Zikalala, a member of the ANC’s governing body, posted on X. Under the pact, President Cyril Ramaphosa, who leads the ANC, is expected to be elected to a second term. The socially conservative Inkatha Freedom Party and the right-wing Patriotic Alliance will also join the unity government.

Despite the ANC joining forces with its historic rival, South Africa’s policy of nonalignment will likely continue, Africa expert Nontobeko Hlela argued in Foreign Policy, “with the ANC rejecting both the liberal demands for an unambiguously pro-West policy and the authoritarian nationalists’ call for an unambiguously pro-Russia and pro-China policy.”

The G-7 talks Beijing. G-7 leaders placed China under the microscope on Friday amid intensifying scrutiny of Beijing’s wartime support for Moscow. “China is not supplying weapons, but the ability to produce those weapons and the technology available to do it. So it is, in fact, helping Russia,” U.S. President Joe Biden said on Thursday. The G-7—consisting of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States—convened in Italy this week for a three-day summit.

The bloc also lambasted China’s competitive market behavior. G-7 nations will “continue to take actions to protect our businesses from unfair practices, to level the playing field and remedy ongoing harm,” according to a draft summit statement released on Friday. Washington has repeatedly accused Beijing of dumping and has imposed sweeping tariffs on Chinese semiconductors, solar technology, electric vehicles, critical minerals, and medical supplies.

Calls for peace. The U.N. Security Council adopted a resolution on Thursday demanding that Sudan’s paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) stop its siege on North Darfur’s capital city. Fourteen Security Council members voted in favor of the resolution, and Russia abstained. More than a million people are reportedly trapped in the Sudanese city of El Fasher, which is the only capital in the region that the militant group has yet to take control of.

The U.K.-sponsored resolution also called for the “rapid, safe, unhindered and sustained passage of humanitarian relief for civilians in need.” Last April, civil war broke out between Sudan’s military and the RSF. Since then, more than 14,000 people have been killed and another 33,000 have been injured, according to the United Nations. Both sides have been accused of war crimes and other atrocities, and the United States has alleged that the RSF is committing ethnic cleansing.

“I think the worst-case scenario in Sudan is a 20-, 25-year version of Somalia on steroids,” Tom Perriello, the U.S. special envoy for Sudan, told FP’s Robbie Gramer, adding that the conflict could spiral into a full-blown regional war.

What in the World?

Why did French President Emmanuel Macron call for snap elections on Sunday?

A. Due to division within his Renaissance party
B. In response to far-right gains following European Parliament elections
C. Due to nationwide protests against his administration
D. As a direct challenge to National Rally leader Marine Le Pen

Odds and Ends

BTS member Jin embraced his first day of freedom after 18 months of mandatory South Korean military service on Thursday with 1,000 hugs and a concert. Jin was honorably discharged on Wednesday, making him the first member of the internationally beloved K-pop group to complete his military duties. Seoul passed a law in 2020 allowing major celebrities to defer their service until age 30. Although Jin’s return brings fans just one day closer to seeing BTS reunited, the other six singers’ discharges are yet to come.

And the Answer Is…

B. In response to far-right gains following European Parliament elections

Macron’s announcement caught both opponents and allies off guard and raised doubts about whether the gamble will pay off, Robert Zaretsky writes.

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