ICJ Orders Israel to Stop Its Rafah Offensive

Welcome back to World Brief. We will be off on Monday, May 27, for Memorial Day, but will return on Tuesday. For today, we’re looking at the future of Israel’s military offensive in Rafah, ongoing cease-fire efforts for Russia and Ukraine, and a deadly landslide in Papua New Guinea.

World Court Rules on Israel

The International Court of Justice (ICJ) ordered Israel on Friday to stop its assault on Rafah in southern Gaza, where Israel’s military offensive has forced some 800,000 Palestinians to flee from in the past two weeks. The 15-judge panel voted 13-2 in favor of the emergency measures, which are part of South Africa’s ongoing case accusing Israel of committing genocide in Gaza in violation of the 1948 Genocide Convention.

“This order is groundbreaking as it is the first time that explicit mention is made for Israel to halt its military action in any area of Gaza,” South African official Zane Dangor said.

Under Friday’s ruling, Israel must stop actions that “may inflict on the Palestinian group in Gaza conditions of life that could bring about its physical destruction in whole or in part,” ICJ President Nawaf Salam said. However, the judges themselves remain split on how this should be interpreted. Four of the 15 judges argued that the ruling does not require Israel to halt all Rafah operations, just any that could violate the Genocide Convention. Only the judges from Uganda and Israel voted against the measure.

The ICJ also ordered Israel to provide investigators access to the enclave and for Israel to report back on its progress to adhere to these demands within one month. And it said Israel must “maintain open the Rafah border crossing” between Egypt and Gaza, which Israeli forces took control of earlier this month, to allow the flow of humanitarian aid.

Egypt has blocked aid from entering Gaza through the Rafah crossing since then, insisting Israel must place the corridor back in Palestinian control before it will allow the resumption of deliveries. However, Egypt agreed on Friday to allow aid through the Kerem Shalom crossing, also in southern Gaza, until an arrangement acceptable to both Egypt and Israel regarding control of the Rafah crossing is in place. The Biden administration is sending a team of senior officials to Cairo next week to try to negotiate such an arrangement.

All ICJ rulings are final and binding, but the court has no enforcement mechanisms. If Israel disobeys an order by the World Court, then it could face international sanctions. ICJ member states could also appeal to the United Nations Security Council to call for an immediate cease-fire. In such a case, Israel will expect the United States to veto, as it has done in the past. Still, foreign leaders hope Friday’s ruling will urge the Security Council to try once again to pass such a resolution.

Friday’s ruling is part of emergency measures requested last week, after South Africa argued that Israel’s Rafah offensive is “the last step in the destruction of Gaza and its people.” Israel dismissed the court’s accusations, claiming that its operations are in self-defense in response to Hamas’s Oct. 7, 2023, attack and are “limited and localized” in scope. “No power on Earth will stop Israel from protecting its citizens and going after Hamas in Gaza,” Israeli spokesperson Avi Hyman said on Thursday. Far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir added on Friday that Israel will continue its “conquest of Rafah” until it achieves “total victory” over Hamas.

Hamas official Basem Naim said the group welcomed the ICJ ruling but that it “is not enough since the occupation aggression across the Gaza Strip and especially in northern Gaza is just as brutal and dangerous.” Already, more than 35,000 Palestinians have been killed since the war began, according to the Gaza Health Ministry. Naim made no mention of another part of the Friday ICJ order, in which the court reiterated its call for the “immediate and unconditional release” of the hostages still being held by Hamas and other armed groups in Gaza.

Today’s Most Read

• What Produced the China Miracle? by Howard W. French
• Consulting Firms Have Stumbled Into a Geopolitical Minefield by Henry Farrell and Abraham Newman
• Democracy Needs an Economic NATO by Dmitri Alperovitch

What We’re Following

Truce proposals. Russian President Vladimir Putin appears willing to stop Moscow’s war on Ukraine if a cease-fire recognizes the current battlefield lines, Reuters reported on Friday. “Putin can fight for as long as it takes, but Putin is also ready for a cease-fire—to freeze the war,” said a Russian source with knowledge of top-level Kremlin conversations. Russia currently possesses substantial chunks of four Ukrainian regions and is continuing to advance through eastern Ukraine.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba wrote on X on Friday that Putin is spreading rumors to try to destabilize planned peace talks in Switzerland next month. “His entourage sends these phony signals of alleged readiness for a cease-fire despite the fact that Russian troops continue to brutally attack Ukraine,” he wrote. Putin was not invited to the summit, at Kyiv’s urging. Russia has repeatedly accused the West of undermining negotiation efforts. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has previously stated that peace on Putin’s terms is unacceptable to Kyiv and has pledged to retake lost territory, including Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014.

Meanwhile, Russian security forces detained Lt. Gen. Vadim Shamarin on Thursday. Shamarin served as deputy chief of the military’s general staff and stands accused of accepting bribes. Hours later, authorities arrested Vladimir Verteletsky, another senior defense official, for abuse of authority—bringing the total number of top Russian military figures detained in less than a month to five. And that’s not including Putin swapping Sergei Shoigu with Andrei Belousov for defense minister.

Mass casualties. A major landslide in the Kaokalam village of Papua New Guinea leveled more than 50 homes early Friday. Local authorities said more than 300 people could be dead, many of whom were asleep when the landslide hit. Prime Minister James Marape has deployed teams to the area. It is unclear whether the landslide impacted operations at the local Porgera gold mine.

Some locals have expressed concern over the town’s fuel and food supplies. Kaokalam is roughly 370 miles from the capital, Port Moresby, and is located within the mountainous Highlands region. The landslide blocked a major road into the village, so for now only helicopters can access the area.

Money talks. G-7 finance ministers gathered in Italy on Friday to discuss the United States’ looming trade war with China. European officials called on the bloc to remain united against “unfair” Chinese industrial policies. Washington has accused Beijing of endangering U.S. jobs with cheap Chinese exports and has announced tariff hikes on key imports, including electric vehicles and semiconductors.

On Saturday, the G-7 finance ministers are also expected to debate whether to use future profits from frozen Russian assets to provide Ukraine with a loan. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the loan could amount to roughly $50 billion. World Bank President Ajay Banga told Reuters that he is “absolutely” open to such a loan for nonmilitary purposes.

What in the World?

Which African leader arrived at the White House to meet with U.S. President Joe Biden on Thursday?

A. Kenyan President William Ruto
B. Nigerian President Bola Tinubu
C. Tanzanian President Samia Suluhu
D. Botswanan President Mokgweetsi Masisi

Odds and Ends

Argentine President Javier Milei should maybe reconsider his true calling. The far-right leader staged a rock concert on Wednesday to promote his new book, during which he declared, “I’m the king, and I will destroy you!” The stadium gig, performed to a crowd of roughly 8,000 people in Buenos Aires, was largely attended by Milei’s supporters. Prior to politics, Milei was the frontman in a Rolling Stones cover band called Everest.

And the Answer Is…

A. Kenyan President William Ruto

Ruto is the first African head of state honored with an official state visit in 15 years, Caroline Gray writes.

To take the rest of FP’s weekly international news quiz, click here, or sign up to be alerted when a new one is published.