How Georgia Sided With Its Enemy

The legislation that was retracted following widespread protests a year ago, requires civil society organizations and media outlets that receive more than 20 percent of their funding from abroad, mainly from the United States and EU, to register as agents of foreign influence. Tens of thousands have flooded the streets, demanding the withdrawal of the legislation seen as aligning Georgia more closely with Russia, which has used a similar law to crush dissent.

In the past, the Georgian Dream party kept hold on power through a combination of fearmongering, vilifying the divided opposition, and engaging in diplomatic bartering with Western allies. However, these once-successful strategies appear to have waned. As the party navigates its third term in office, it finds itself confronted with genuine protests both domestically and internationally that may cost it the elections in October.

The full-scale invasion of Ukraine shook the carefully crafted balance the Georgian government sought between Russia and the West.

Over the past two years, hundreds of thousands of Georgians have taken to the streets in solidarity in demonstrations aimed as much at their own government as at Moscow. At every turn in Tbilisi, “Fuck Putin,” “Russia is an occupier,” and “Georgia stands with Ukraine” are painted on the walls. Almost every establishment, from banks to bars, displays Ukrainian flags.

But the war in Ukraine has also allowed Georgian Dream to exploit the public’s fear for domestic political gain in a country scarred by the memory of its wars with Russia and where Russian forces occupy 20 percent of its territory.

Protesters hold “Save Misha” placards and a sign critical of former Georgian Prime Minister Bidzina Ivanishvili and Russian President Vladimir Putin during a demonstration in support of former Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili in Parliament Square in London on Feb. 20, 2023. Vuk Valcic/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images

The war in Ukraine offered a new opportunity. Since February 2022, Georgian Dream has dubbed the opposition the “war party,” blamed the U.S. ambassador for pressuring Tbilisi to get involved in the conflict, accused the West of wanting to open a second front with Russia in Georgia, and accused the Ukrainian government of trying to drag Georgia into the war.

The relationship between Tbilisi and Kyiv was already strained over the arrest of former Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili, who returned to his native Georgia after serving as a member of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s administration. Today, it’s near rock bottom. The two sides have exchanged strong words. Ukraine withdrew its ambassador from Georgia and sanctioned some members of Ivanishvili’s inner circle.

“High-ranking officials of the Ukrainian government cannot hide that their declared desire is to open a second front in Georgia and to involve Georgia in the military conflict,” stated then-Georgian Dream Chairman Irakli Kobakhidze, currently the prime minister, in a discussion with journalists in September 2022. It’s a message that is repeated over and over. Other officials have called members of Ukraine’s government “scoundrels” and “shameful creatures,” while consistently emphasizing the Ukrainian and Western desire to “turn the country into a battlefield.”

The message resonates. “This [fearmongering] strategy propelled the Georgian Dream party to power initially. Their argument was that if Mikheil Saakashvili, the former president, had won, it would escalate tensions with Russia. In contrast, they pledged to address issues with Moscow if elected. They have consistently adhered to this messaging,” noted Ghia Nodia, a professor at Ilia State University.

In theory, the public disagrees with the government. Eighty-seven percent of Georgians see the war in Ukraine as a shared cause. The images of Russian atrocities in Bucha and Irpin bring back memories of war crimes committed by Russians in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. The wars killed at least 5,000 Georgians and displaced more than 200,000; many of the victims are still alive. But when asked if Georgian Dream is doing enough to support Ukraine, 53 percent think it is.

“The Georgian government is not saying a word about what Russia did in Georgia, how many people died. They need to say that Russia is an aggressor, full stop, the aggressor in Georgia and in Ukraine,” he said.

“Isn’t Georgia already at war?” Mykhailo Podolyak, an advisor to Zelensky, noted when I brought up Georgia’s accusations that Kyiv was trying to drag it into the conflict. We were sitting in his room at the Presidential Administration of Ukraine, in an office where sandbags cover the windows. “Aren’t Abkhazia and South Ossetia occupied? You are either on the side of freedom or autocracy. The reality is black and white; there are no gray tones,” he said.

When Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine, Russian exiles flooded neighboring Georgia, a country where Russian tanks stand 40 kilometers away from the capital. More came later when the Kremlin announced partial mobilization. Reports indicate that between 62,000 and 112,000 Russian citizens have sought refuge in the country with a population of 3.7 million��and tens of thousands of them plan to stay, with around 26,000 businesses registered by Russian citizens.

Many Georgians have become increasingly unsettled by the influx of newcomers, whom they perceive as fleeing for personal comfort rather than as principled opponents of the war. The worries about the Russians are about more than just resentment; they’re rooted in fear. In 2008, when Moscow invaded Georgia, the Kremlin used its “responsibility to protect” the Russian-speaking population as an excuse. Recent polls show 69 percent of the population supports introducing a visa regime for Russia and 78 percent say Russians shouldn’t be allowed to open businesses or purchase property.

Fear is a powerful force, especially when the wounds of war are so fresh. Back in 2008, many Georgians felt that the West had abandoned them in the face of Russian aggression. Due to German and French opposition, NATO had refused to grant membership to Tbilisi and Kyiv at the Bucharest summit. A few months later, Russian tanks rolled into Georgia. After the war, then-U.S. President Barack Obama’s administration attempted to reset the relationship with Moscow.

Opposition supporters celebrate an apparent victory by the Georgian Dream bloc in Tbilisi on Oct. 1, 2012.Amdry Smirnov/AFP/GettyImages

This involved fostering skepticism about Western commitments, engagement, and cultural values, while also nurturing concerns about the erosion of identity, religion, and physical security. The government aligns with Georgia’s popular Orthodox Church to vilify pro-democracy activists and in a bid to appeal to socially conservative voters. Ivanishvili forged alliances of convenience with a diverse and ever-changing assortment of openly pro-Russian, ultraconservative, and radical groups such as “Voice of the People” and “The Alliance of Patriots.” By employing far-right proxy groups, Georgian Dream projected a more moderate image to Western partners.

But since February 2022, the relationship between the Georgian government and the West has soured considerably, largely due to the government’s increasing authoritarian tendencies and perceived pro-Russian tilt.

The United States has slapped sanctions on Otar Partskhaladze, a close ally of Ivanishvili’s and the former prosecutor-general of Georgia, over alleged involvement in aiding Russian influence in the country, and warned Georgia against assisting Russia in circumventing sanctions.

In retaliation, Tbilisi accused the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) of training protesters to orchestrate a revolution in Georgia—a claim that the U.S. Embassy has dismissed as an attempt to “fundamentally mischaracterize” USAID’s mission. The Georgian government and elites have also dubbed critical voices in Washington and Brussels as part of a “global war party.” Furthermore, Georgia has found an ally in Hungary’s prime minister, Viktor Orban, and has inked a strategic partnership agreement with China, further straining its ties with the West.

Many members of the ruling party have resorted to ugly rhetoric against high-ranking American and European lawmakers and officials.

“Demonizing the West is a cornerstone of Georgian Dream’s strategy. Without it, public criticism from the West and the sluggish progress of Western integration would pose a political risk,” Giga Bokeria, the head of the opposition European Georgia party said.

Demonstrators face off against police officers outside the Georgian Parliament during a rally in Tbilisi against the “foreign agent” bill, on May 1. Vano Shlamov/AFP via Getty Images

The failure of opposition parties to garner support is partly due to growing illiberalism, with Ivanishvili controlling courts, finances, and media, stifling dissent. Human rights groups describe the past decade as one of state capture by the billionaire. Personal loyalty to Ivanishvili is an important prerequisite for holding office. (He has appointed his dentist, his security detail, and his other business associates to prominent positions.)

The local watchdogs note Ivanishvili’s collaboration with criminals for electoral wins and use of security services for control, while the opposition parties lack resources to pay staff, rent offices, or even hang banners. Opposition media is also under pressure, with legal battles and arrests.

But the blame cannot solely be placed on the government.

Over the years, the opposition has made grand promises of revolution, revenge, and revival to the Georgian population yet has repeatedly fallen short, leaving both itself and the populace disillusioned.

“The [opposition] kept telling the population that time was running out and that we must push Georgian Dream out right that moment, yet they constantly failed to deliver. This only adds to the frustration and resignation,” Nodia explained.

Much of the political class on the side of the opposition is in disarray, with infighting and discord prevalent. Many members have switched sides multiple times, lacking firm political convictions, financial stability, and resources. They have sought refuge under the umbrella of Saakashvili, who has languished in jail for over two and a half years, with his allies expressing concerns over his deteriorating health. His once-charismatic appeal has waned and his turn to populism failed to resonate with voters despairing of political opportunism.

“The opposition can’t match the ruling party’s populism and ethno-nationalism,” cautioned Bokeria, whose party seeks to leverage public disillusionment with the elite. “Many believe this is a winning strategy, following Ivanishvili’s successful playbook. However, not only is this flawed in principle and detrimental to the country’s future, but it’s also impractical. You can’t prevail on Ivanishvili’s field,” he emphasized.

With growing political, social, and economic pressures and failing institutions, the public is more and more pessimistic. One in six Georgians thinks of leaving the country.

“A third of our workforce has left,” noted Ruska Tskhadaia, a manager in one of Georgia’s most successful hotel companies. “I don’t see a future here, either, but if everyone leaves, who will remain?”

Research for this article was made possible with the support of the Heinrich Böll Foundation in Washington, D.C.