Dueling Hamas-Israel Cease-Fire Claims Cause Confusion as Rafah Evacuates

Welcome back to World Brief, where we’re looking at the prospects for a cease-fire in Gaza as Israel orders Rafah to evacuate, Chinese President Xi Jinping’s Europe tour, and elections in Chad and Panama.

Cease-Fire Confusion

Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh informed mediators on Monday that the militant group had accepted an Egyptian and Qatari proposal for a cease-fire in Gaza. This prompted celebration among some Palestinians in the southern Gaza city of Rafah, whose residents the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) had ordered to evacuate just hours earlier in advance of a looming ground offensive.

However, it soon emerged that Israel was evidently not involved in formulating the cease-fire proposal that Hamas had agreed to, which immediately raised the question of whether there was an actual agreement between the two warring parties to stop fighting.

After several hours of confusion and at times conflicting statements from officials over who had agreed to what, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office issued a statement saying the Hamas proposal is far from meeting Israel’s requirements but that Israel would send a delegation of mediators back to Cairo to continue negotiations. The statement also said Israel’s war cabinet had unanimously decided to continue the military operation in Rafah. Shortly after, the IDF said it was conducting targeted strikes against Hamas in the area.

Just hours earlier, Israel ordered mass evacuations in the city ahead of an expected ground offensive. The IDF said it “will act with extreme force against terrorist organizations” in Rafah, dropping leaflets on the city that said, “Anyone in the area puts themselves and their family members in danger. For your safety, evacuate immediately.”

Around 100,000 people in eastern Rafah fall under the evacuation order. The IDF urged all residents to go to an “expanded humanitarian area” near al-Mawasi and Khan Younis, areas north and northwest of the city. There, the IDF said it will provide tents, food, water, and medication. The Israeli army instructed Palestinians not to go toward the border fence with Israel or Egypt.

Foreign leaders and humanitarian groups have denounced the plan as unsafe. “The area is already overstretched and devoid of vital services,” said Jan Egeland, the head of the Norwegian Refugee Council, arguing that the designated humanitarian zone lacks the capacity to house the number of people seeking refuge in Rafah. He warned that Israel’s relocation directives amount to forcible transfer, which is a “serious violation of international law.”

Around 1.4 million Palestinians are currently sheltering in Rafah, many of whom fled there to escape fighting elsewhere in the Gaza Strip. It is unclear how long it will take for the designated area to evacuate; however, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said on Sunday that “strong military action in Rafah will begin in the very near future.” Israel claims that Rafah is Hamas’s last bastion in the Gaza Strip, housing around 5,000 to 8,000 fighters and senior leaders as well as many Israeli hostages.

U.S. President Joe Biden spoke with Netanyahu via phone on Monday to reiterate the White House’s stance against the Rafah offensive as it is currently planned. Biden also met with Jordan’s King Abdullah II on Monday at the White House. Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi said earlier that the Rafah assault is “another massacre of the Palestinians” in the making, and senior European officials urged Israel not to attack the city.

Today’s Most Read

• Can Xi Win Back Europe? by Christina Lu
• The Original Sin of Biden’s Foreign Policy by John Kampfner
• The Opioid High of Empire by Nikhil Kumar

The World This Week

Tuesday, May 7: German Chancellor Olaf Scholz concludes hosting Denis Becirovic, the chair of the presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Wednesday, May 8: North Macedonia holds the second round of its parliamentary elections.

Brazil’s central bank determines its interest rate.

Scholz hosts Finnish President Alexander Stubb.

Thursday, May 9: Preliminary hearings begin against former Peruvian President Pedro Castillo for attempting to dissolve parliament in 2022.

G-7 justice ministers begin a two-day summit in Italy.

Sunday, May 12: Catalonia holds early regional elections.

Lithuania holds a presidential election.

Monday, May 13: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan hosts Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis.

What We’re Following

Xi courts Europe. Chinese President Xi Jinping visited France on Monday to kick off his weeklong trip across Europe. While there, he met with French President Emmanuel Macron and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen to discuss ways to balance bilateral trade efforts, particularly of Chinese electric vehicles and French brandy. The leaders also addressed ongoing wars in Ukraine and the Middle East.

This was Xi’s first trip to Europe in five years. After France, he will head to Serbia and Hungary, which both have pro-Russian leaders. Xi’s mission this week is “damage control,” FP’s Christina Lu reported, as Brussels and many European leaders have adopted “a tougher posture toward Beijing” to combat cheap Chinese green technology exports.

Elections and more. Chad held a presidential election on Monday to determine who will replace transitional leader Gen. Mahamat Déby, who seized power three years ago after the sudden death of his father and Chad’s longest-serving president, Idriss Déby Itno. The younger Déby is expected to win office, though opposition candidate and current Prime Minister Succès Masra has drawn larger-than-expected support. Ten candidates are on the ballot; if none wins a simple majority, a runoff will be held on June 22.

This is the Sahel’s first presidential election since a wave of coups spread across the region, beginning in Mali in August 2020 (and again in May 2021) before occurring in Chad, Guinea, Burkina Faso, and Niger. Ruling juntas in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger have all expelled French forces and turned to Russia for support, making Chad one of the last stable Western allies in the Sahel.

In more election news, Panamanian authorities announced on Sunday that last-minute candidate José Raúl Mulino won the Central American nation’s presidential election. Mulino replaced former President Ricardo Martinelli on the ballot after Martinelli was barred from running over a money-laundering conviction. And in Scotland, former Deputy First Minister John Swinney was named the new head of the Scottish National Party on Monday, making him the country’s likely next leader after Humza Yousaf resigned last week after just over a year in office.

Tactical nuclear weapons. Russia announced plans on Monday to conduct military exercises near Ukraine “in the near future” to prepare for the potential use of tactical nuclear weapons. These types of arms are designed for the battlefield, meaning they have smaller warheads than ones built to target cities. This was the Kremlin’s most explicit warning yet that such weapons could be used in Moscow’s war on Ukraine.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said as recently as March that he had never considered using tactical nuclear weapons against Kyiv despite regularly touting Russia’s large nuclear arsenal. On Monday, though, Russian officials said warnings of potential direct Western involvement in the conflict—such as Macron reiterating last week that he would not rule out deploying French troops to Ukraine and British Foreign Secretary David Cameron saying Kyiv has the right to use British weapons against Russia—had created a “completely new round of escalation of tension.”

Odds and Ends

During local elections last Thursday, a polling station in South Oxfordshire turned away former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson for forgetting his photo ID card at home. Although this was the first time that many British voters had to present such documentation, you’d think at least Johnson would have remembered his driver’s license—since he was the one to introduce the controversial requirement back in 2022.