Senegal’s Existential Election

Welcome to Foreign Policy’s Africa Brief.

The highlights this week, Niger ends U.S. military ties, Binance executives are detained in Nigeria, and Burundi withdraws from the NBA’s Africa League.

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A month after Senegalese President Macky Sall plunged the country into political crisis by suspending presidential elections, a ballot has been slated for March 24.

Firebrand opposition leader Ousmane Sonko and his chosen presidential candidate, Bassirou Diomaye Faye, were released from prison on March 14 and have been drawing crowds on the campaign trail.

Sonko is the mayor of Ziguinchor, located in Casamance—a southern region that has experienced four decades of fighting between the government and separatist rebels and is partly cut off from the rest of Senegal by Gambia. Both men studied law and are former tax inspectors who have been outspoken about tax dodging by foreign companies and alleged bribes taken by Senegalese politicians. The pair promised to tackle corruption—a popular demand among young urbanites frustrated with a lack of jobs and rising living costs.

Sonko remains ineligible to run because of a defamation conviction after he accused Tourism Minister Mame Mbaye Niang of stealing 29 billion CFA francs (about $47 million) from a government agency.

In June 2023, Sonko was sentenced to two years for “corrupting youth”—a crime that involves using one’s position of power to have sex with or encourage the debauchery of an individual under the age of 21—a lesser offense than his initial rape charge.

Meanwhile, Faye had been incarcerated on several charges, including insurrection. They are the main beneficiaries of an amnesty law announced on Feb. 26 by Sall to defuse the political tensions that he had created. The amnesty pardons all those arrested on charges related to political protests since 2021.

Karim Wade, the son of ex-President Abdoulaye Wade, who was disqualified from the ballot for holding a dual nationality, tried once again to delay the elections, but the Supreme Court ruled against the appeal filed by his party, the Senegalese Democratic Party.

Now facing the possibility of holding office, Sonko and Faye have rolled back some of their populist pledges, such as abolishing the EU-pegged CFA franc and instead creating a new national currency.

Under the new proposal, Senegal would seek a monetary reform at a regional level first, and “[i]f that fails, we will make a decision as a nation,” Sonko said on Friday.

The pair have also promised to renegotiate mining and energy contracts at a time when Senegal is poised to begin offshore oil and gas production mainly for European export. An offshore natural gas project between Senegal and Mauritania for export to Germany is set to begin later this year. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts that natural gas projects will boost Senegal’s GDP growth to double digits by 2025.

For the first time in Senegal’s history, an incumbent will not be on the ballot. Of those who voted for Sall in the last election, only 60 percent are believed to be planning to vote for his handpicked successor, Prime Minister Amadou Ba, according to internal government polling. Yet, large crowds of supporters in the capital, Dakar, do not guarantee Faye a clear path to victory.

The dominance of Sall’s ruling coalition, Benno Bokk Yakaar (or BBY, which translates from Wolof to English as “United in Hope”), in rural areas “tends to be overlooked in the rest of the country” said Mucahid Durmaz, a senior Africa analyst at risk intelligence firm Verisk Maplecroft.

Ba, like the opposition leaders, is also a former tax inspector. “As a technocrat, compared to Sall, he is seen less divisive and more unifying figure from the ruling coalition by his supporters … Ba will likely utilize the party machinery and the ruling coalition’s influence over the state institutions,” Durmaz added.

Other candidates have slim chances of winning. These include Khalifa Sall (no relation to the president), Dakar’s two-time mayor, and Idrissa Seck, who came in second in 2019. For many Senegalese, this election feels existential, and it has to run smoothly. Excessive use of force by police, if protests were to happen before or after the vote, could leave a permanent stain.

“If Faye’s bid is damaged by electoral malpractice and irregularities, a risk of sustained unrest will likely shake the country,” Durmaz said. The electoral commission now has a very short window to organize elections, with analysts predicting that the vote is likely to head to a runoff—which will occur if no candidate wins an absolute majority.

Wednesday, March 20: Report due on the U.N. stabilization mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (MONUSCO).

Wednesday, March 20, to Friday, March 22: Lee Satterfield, the U.S. assistant secretary of state for educational and cultural affairs, visits Nigeria to bolster ties in education and the creative sector in a trip that began Monday.

Wednesday, March 20, to Tuesday, March 26: Anne Witkowsky, the U.S. assistant secretary of states for conflict and stabilization operations, visits Mozambique, Ethiopia, and Kenya in a trip that began Monday.

Sunday, March 24: Senegal holds a presidential election.

Wednesday, March 27: The U.N. Security Council discusses MONUSCO.

Niger ends U.S. ties. Niger, a crucial U.S. ally, has severed military ties with Washington, Niger’s junta announced Saturday on state television. The move suggests failed diplomatic talks with U.S. officials, as it came two days after a state visit by Molly Phee, the U.S. assistant secretary of state for African affairs, and Gen. Michael E. Langley, who heads the U.S. military’s Africa Command (Africom). In a statement read on television, Amadou Abdramane, the junta’s spokesperson, said the Nigerien government “denounces with force the condescending attitude combined with the threat of reprisals” by the head of the U.S. delegation.

Niger signed a defense pact with Russia in December. Abdramane suggested this week that Washington had tried to lecture Niamey about ties with Moscow and alleged that the U.S. delegation had accused it of making a secret deal to supply uranium to Iran. Sabrina Singh, the Pentagon’s deputy press secretary, said Monday that U.S. officials had “expressed concern over Niger’s potential relationships with Russia and Iran.”

Nigerien coup leader Gen. Abdourahmane Tchiani was trained by the U.S. military, and the rejection of U.S. troops is a major blow for Washington. Since the coup that brought it to power last July, Niger’s junta had been hostile toward Western nations—except, until now, the United States. Niamey has already ejected diplomats and troops from former colonial power France and revoked an anti-migration deal with the European Union.

More than 1,000 U.S. soldiers are stationed at a U.S. military base in Agadez, in Niger’s north, where the United States operates drones monitoring jihadi activities. Washington delayed officially labeling the takeover as a coup until October, when it restricted support at the base to surveillance for the safety of U.S. forces. Only last month, Africom emphasized Niger’s importance to U.S. security against groups linked to al Qaeda and the Islamic State. “If we lose our footprint in the Sahel, that will degrade our ability to do active watching and warning, including for homeland defense,” Langley said.

Execs detained in Nigeria. Relatives of two foreign executives detained indefinitely in Nigeria have lambasted their governments for not doing enough to secure their release. The Nigerian government banned cryptocurrency firm Binance last month, accusing it of currency speculation on its platform amid the record devaluation of Nigeria’s currency, the naira. Since Feb. 26, Nigeria has detained two Binance executives without charge—Nadeem Anjarwalla, a dual British-Kenyan citizen and lawyer now based in Kenya, and Tigran Gambaryan, a U.S. citizen and former crypto-focused U.S. federal agent. Gambaryan was visited by a U.S. official while under watch by Nigerian guards. The case against the two men is scheduled to be heard today in Abuja.

Nigeria ransom demand. Kidnappers have demanded 1 billion naira (about $640,000) for the release of more than 280 students and staff abducted on March 7 by criminal gangs from a school in Kaduna. Nigerian President Bola Ahmed Tinubu vowed that the government is “not paying anybody any dime.” Nigeria outlawed ransom payments in 2022 in a bid to stop a thriving business. Dozens more women and children were kidnapped from Kaduna Sunday night.

Historic state neglect and heightened poverty from Tinubu’s economic reforms have worsened the security situation across the country. Members of the Nigerian Army are alleged to have razed a community in Delta State in retaliation after young men killed 16 Nigerian troops last Thursday. Delta State, one of Nigeria’s leading oil-producing regions, experiences frequent clashes over land and oil pollution.

Egypt’s financial boost. The European Union signed a 7.4 billion euro (about $8.1 billion) aid package with Egypt in exchange for blocking migrant flows to Europe. The funding involves concessional loans and 1.8 billion euros ($2 billion) of investment in renewable energy, trade, and security over the next three years to support Egypt’s beleaguered economy. Last month, Cairo secured $35 billion in Emirati investments and an $8 billion IMF bailout despite criticism about government abuse and mismanagement.

Namibia land restitution. In response to last week’s Africa Brief, the German foreign ministry has said in a statement to Foreign Policy that it was aware that some Herero and Nama groups that did not support Namibia and Germany’s joint declaration on the Namibian genocide had “decided not to participate.”

“It is foreseen that a separate and unique programme will be set up and that the use of the funds will be decided on together with representatives of the Herero and Nama,” a spokesperson wrote regarding the issue of Namibian leaders from the Herero and Nama communities calling for fresh talks. Germany’s government said its funds are not reparations and did not address calls for direct compensation.

Burundi has bowed out of the NBA’s Basketball Africa League over having to wear a logo promoting Rwanda. The Burundian club Dynamo withdrew from games held in Pretoria, South Africa, after refusing to wear a jersey with a “Visit Rwanda” logo on it. The team’s withdrawal reportedly came due to a Burundian government directive.

Burundian President Evariste Ndayishimiye has accused Rwandan President Paul Kagame’s government of backing the Burundian armed rebel group RED-Tabara, which killed 20 people in an attack in December. In January, Burundi shut its border with Rwanda and accused Kigali of being a “bad neighbor.” The Democratic Republic of the Congo also accuses Rwanda of funding rebels, which Kigali denies.

Since taking office in 2012, Senegalese President Macky Sall steadily increased the country’s foreign direct investment with gas and technology deals but destroyed his own legacy by attempting to delay elections in what critics have called an attempt to cling to power. Whoever takes office will need to persuade investors that Senegal is still a bastion of democracy in West Africa compared to its coup-plagued neighbors.

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Guinea’s democratic transition. In World Politics Review, Lassane Ouedraogo writes that Guineans are losing patience with junta leader Mamady Doumbouya due to increased restrictions on civic freedom since the ouster of former President Alpha Condé in September 2021.

“Doumbouya has failed to truly win over his fellow citizens who, after initially welcoming his coup d’etat as a relief from the poverty, corruption and repression they knew under Conde, have become increasingly disillusioned,” Ouedraogo writes. Doumbouya has made several cabinet reshuffles following reports of attempted coups against him.

U.S.-Africa fintech investments. In Rest of World, Damilare Dosunmu reports on attempts by U.S. payment firms Visa and Mastercard to secure a more prominent stake in Africa’s growing mobile transactions market, which is a popular method of payment across Africa.