Why Ramadan Matters in the Israel-Hamas War

Cease-fire talks in Cairo aimed at brokering a pause in fighting between Israel and Hamas in Gaza and securing the release of Israeli hostages in exchange for Palestinian prisoners have stalled, less than a week before the start of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan.

Officials in Washington and the region have come to regard the holiday, which is set to begin on Sunday, as an unofficial deadline to reach a deal amid concerns that clashes during Ramadan could further inflame the region.

Negotiators from Qatar, Egypt, and the United States have scrambled to piece together a deal that would see up to 40 Israeli hostages released in exchange for a six-week cease-fire, an increase in aid deliveries to the besieged Gaza Strip, and the release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners from Israel’s jails.

Three days of talks in Cairo this week failed to reach a breakthrough, with both Israel and Hamas trading accusations of hindering an agreement. Hamas has failed to respond to Israel’s requests for a list of living hostages who could be released as part of a deal, while senior Hamas official Osama Hamdan said on Tuesday that the militant group is seeking a permanent cease-fire and the full withdrawal of Israeli forces, which represents a significant expansion of the parameters of the proposed deal.

“We are afraid of getting to the point of no return, where the level of escalation would reach an all-out war in the region,” said Majed al-Ansari, a foreign-policy advisor to the Qatari prime minister, speaking about the need for a cease-fire by Ramadan. His urgency was echoed by U.S. President Joe Biden, who warned of a “very, very dangerous” situation if an agreement wasn’t struck by Ramadan.

The onset of the holy month brings with it a number of specific events and circumstances that could very easily lead to a dramatic escalation not just in the Israel-Hamas war but also in the simmering tensions across the Middle East.

Benny Gantz, a member of Israel’s war cabinet, said in a speech last month that Israel would begin offensive operations in Rafah, in southern Gaza, if remaining hostages were not released by the start of Ramadan. Some 1.5 million Palestinians have sought refuge in the city, and aid groups have warned of a “bloodbath” if Israeli troops launch an assault on the city.

More than 30,000 Palestinians have been killed in Gaza, which has come under punishing bombardment by Israeli forces seeking to root out Hamas militants in the wake of the brutal Oct. 7, 2023, attack, which left some 1,200 Israelis dead and 253 taken as hostages into Gaza.

With aid supplies severely restricted, humanitarian groups have issued increasingly dire warnings about the potential for famine in northern Gaza. World Health Organization chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus warned on Monday that children have begun to die from starvation.

“There’s a lot of clocks running here,” said Zaha Hassan, a fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “And that’s all coming to a head this week.”

Without a cease-fire, scenes of ongoing death and destruction in Gaza are likely to weigh heavily on the minds of Muslims across the region going into Ramadan, the most sacred period in the Islamic calendar, which is marked by prayer, reflection, and charity. “It adds a layer of distastefulness and outrage to an already pretty horrendous situation,” said Khaled Elgindy, the director of the Middle East Institute’s program on Palestine. “It adds more pressure on Arab governments to at least look like they’re doing something.”

The Al-Aqsa Mosque complex in Jerusalem, known to Jews as the Temple Mount, is sacred to both Jews and Muslims and has long been a flash point for tensions in the ancient city, particularly during Ramadan, as tens of thousands of Muslims seek to visit the mosque during Ramadan and for Friday prayers. “There’s nothing like threats to Al-Aqsa that ignites the streets,” said Joel Braunold, the managing director of the Abraham Center for Middle East Peace.

Clashes between Palestinians and Israeli police at the mosque in 2021 prompted Hamas to launch a barrage of rockets into Israel, which responded with hundreds of airstrikes that killed more than 200 Palestinians in Gaza.

Hamas views itself as the guardian of Al-Aqsa and Jerusalem, Hassan said. Hamas, which is listed as a terrorist organization by the United States and the European Union, code-named its Oct. 7 assault on southern Israel “Operation Al-Aqsa Flood.”

Officials in Israel are concerned that Hamas may be deliberately delaying cease-fire negotiations to use Ramadan to inflame tensions in the region, said an Israeli official who requested anonymity to speak candidly about the talks.  Last week, Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh called on Palestinians to march on Al-Aqsa at the start of Ramadan, while a spokesperson for Palestinian Islamic Jihad, another Gaza-based militant group, called for a “month of terror” in a recent speech.

On Wednesday, Israel’s National Security Council issued a warning to the public that terrorist groups are likely to use the ongoing war and tensions around Al-Aqsa to incite their supporters to carry out attacks on Israelis as well as Western targets.

Israel’s far-right national security minister, Itamar Ben-Gvir, whose portfolio includes the holy site, had called for severe restrictions to be imposed on Muslim worshippers accessing the site—including Arab citizens of Israel. But in an apparent effort to reduce the potential for unrest, the Israeli government announced on Tuesday that the number of worshippers allowed access to the site would be similar to previous years.

“Ramadan is holy for Muslims, and the sanctity of the holiday will be preserved this year, as it is every year,” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office said in a statement but added that it would reassess the situation weekly based on the security situation.

While officials in the region are looking to reach a deal by the beginning of Ramadan in a bid to keep a lid on tensions, the start of the holiday does not necessarily spell the end of diplomatic efforts to secure a cease-fire deal. If there is sufficient momentum, a deal could still be struck during Ramadan, Braunold said.