Blinken Prioritizes De-Escalation in Latest Middle East Trip

Welcome back to World Brief, where we’re looking at U.S. diplomatic efforts in the Middle East, a landslide yet controversial reelection in El Salvador, and Senegal postponing a presidential vote.

Washington’s Middle East Priorities

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken traveled to Saudi Arabia on Monday to kick off his fifth trip to the Middle East since Hamas’s Oct. 7, 2023, attack on Israel. He met with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman for roughly two hours, during which the two men were expected to discuss ongoing efforts to secure a cease-fire agreement between Israel and Hamas; plans for Gaza after the war ends; and potential Saudi normalization with Israel, among other issues. Blinken also plans to meet with leaders in Egypt, Qatar, Israel, and the West Bank to push for the release of all remaining Israeli hostages and a humanitarian pause in Gaza. Negotiators are still waiting for Hamas to respond to a proposal for a six-week cease-fire that would include Israeli captives exchanged for Palestinian prisoners.

Among Blinken’s goals this week, he plans to reiterate that the White House does not seek to intensify a broader regional conflict, a senior State Department official said. However, these messages of de-escalation come after U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan promised on Sunday that Washington will continue to strike Iran-backed militias in retaliation for the deaths of three U.S. soldiers in a drone strike on a U.S. base in Jordan late last month. Last Friday, the United States bombed more than 85 Iran-linked targets in Iraq and Syria; on Saturday, the United States and United Kingdom followed that with strikes on 36 targets in Yemen connected to the Iran-backed Houthis.

No U.S. casualties have been reported in the Middle East since the Jan. 28 strike. However, at least six allied Kurdish fighters were killed in a drone attack in eastern Syria on Sunday at a base housing U.S. soldiers, the U.S.-backed and Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces said on Monday. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed responsibility for Sunday’s attack. The United States also intercepted four anti-ship Houthi missiles from Yemen on Sunday that “presented an imminent threat to U.S. Navy ships and merchant vessels in the region,” U.S. Central Command said Monday.

Also over the weekend, U.S. Senate lawmakers on Sunday announced a bipartisan $118.3 billion deal that includes $14.1 billion for Israel and $2.44 billion for Red Sea security, as well as $60 billion for Ukraine and $20 billion for new restrictions at the southern border. The Senate is scheduled to hold its first procedural vote by Wednesday, but some conservatives have threatened to reject the proposal. Senior Republicans, including House Speaker Mike Johnson, said that even if the bill passes the Senate, it will be “DEAD on arrival” in the House of Representatives. The House unveiled a separate $17.6 billion military assistance package for Israel on Saturday that is not attached to Ukraine aid.

Today’s Most Read

• How Primed for War Is China? by Michael Beckley and Hal Brands
• What South Africa Really Won at the ICJ by Sasha Polakow-Suransky
• Why Middle Powers Can’t Pursue Grand Strategy by Jo Inge Bekkevold

The World This Week

Tuesday, Feb. 6: French Foreign Minister Stéphane Séjourné visits Lebanon.

Norwegian Foreign Minister Espen Barth Eide concludes a two-day visit to China.

Wednesday, Feb. 7: Azerbaijan holds snap presidential elections.

Thursday, Feb. 8: Pakistan holds parliamentary elections.

Blinken concludes a U.S. diplomatic mission in the Middle East.

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa delivers a state of the nation address.

Papua New Guinean Prime Minister James Marape addresses the Australian Parliament.

Friday, Feb. 9: Biden hosts German Chancellor Olaf Scholz at the White House.

Sunday, Feb. 11: Finland holds a presidential election runoff.

The United Kingdom and NATO begin joint exercise Agile Defender.

What We’re Following

“World’s coolest dictator.” Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele celebrated a landslide reelection win on Sunday, claiming to have won more than 85 percent of the vote before official results were announced. His New Ideas party is also expected to win almost all of the Legislative Assembly’s 60 seats, consolidating Bukele’s control and making him El Salvador’s most powerful leader in modern history.

“This will be the first time where one party rules a country in a completely democratic system,” Bukele told a crowd of supporters on Sunday. “The entire opposition has been pulverized.”

El Salvador was once one of the world’s most dangerous countries, having the highest murder rate globally. Now, it boasts the highest incarceration rate. Bukele, the self-described “world’s coolest dictator,” earned his popularity by cracking down on the nation’s homicide and gang crises. In just under two years, his administration arrested more than 75,000 people, or around 1 percent of the total population. However, human rights groups have raised concerns that the government’s actions may be violating detainees’ right to a fair trial and, as of July 2023, had documented more than 3,000 cases of arbitrary and indefinite detention.

Bukele’s reelection and his party’s success in the legislative election has some experts worried that he will use his power to further encroach on the nation’s civil liberties and erode democratic norms.

Election crisis. Senegal’s parliament convened on Monday to debate outgoing President Macky Sall’s call on Saturday to postpone presidential elections. If approved by three-fifths of lawmakers, a vote previously scheduled for Feb. 25 could be pushed back by up to six months. Sall is not set to run for reelection.

The Senegalese president said he seeks a delayed vote to discuss the disputed candidate list, which bars two politicians from running, as well as alleged corruption within the Constitutional Court. However, some Senegalese accused Sall of trying to extend his term indefinitely. Riot police disbanded violent protesters gathered outside the nation’s parliament building on Monday, and mobile internet access was restricted to quell so-called threats to public order.

Moment of silence. Chile began two days of mourning on Monday after wildfires decimated entire neighborhoods in the central city of Viña del Mar, killing at least 112 people and damaging around 14,000 homes. Around 165 blazes remain active, Deputy Interior Minister Manuel Monsalve said on Sunday. This is Chile’s deadliest wildfire in recent history.

Chilean President Gabriel Boric deployed the military to help firefighters battle the flames, and the government imposed a curfew on some of the nation’s hardest-hit areas. “We are facing a tragedy of very great magnitude,” he said, adding that the death toll is expected to rise. Hundreds of people remain missing in and around the city.

Royal diagnosis. King Charles III, 75, has been diagnosed with cancer, Buckingham Palace announced on Monday. The disease was discovered during a corrective procedure last week for a benign enlarged prostate. The Crown did not reveal what type of cancer Charles has or what stage it is at. The king will temporarily suspend his public duties as he seeks treatment. Charles ascended to the throne in May 2023.

Chart of the Week

The risk indicators for China invading Taiwan at some point in the future “are blinking red,” Michael Beckley and Hal Brands argue in Foreign Policy. One such indicator is China’s increased military spending. Beijing spent $298 billion in 2022 on warships, missiles, and other military investments—$274.3 billion more than it spent just 32 years ago, adjusted for inflation. By 2030, the authors write, China’s nuclear arsenal could rival that of the United States. As Beijing’s missile capabilities grow, “it is no longer clear that the Pentagon could immediately respond to, let alone defeat, a Chinese assault on Taiwan.”

Odds and Ends

Given the close U.S.-Japan relationship, the Japanese Embassy in the United States has many important diplomatic matters to attend to—including, apparently, whether Taylor Swift will be able to make it back to the United States from her tour in Japan in time to see her boyfriend, Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce, play in the Super Bowl. Fear not: According to an official statement that the embassy put out last Friday, if the pop star leaves her Eras Tour show in Tokyo by the evening of Feb. 10, she should land in Las Vegas before Super Bowl LVIII kicks off that same night. No word from the embassy, though, on another burning question many gamblers are wagering on: whether Kelce will propose during the big game.