Ukraine Braces for EU Membership, Funding Fight

Welcome back to World Brief, where we’re looking at the future of support for Ukraine, Israeli targeting of a Hamas leader, and a controversial French immigration bill.

Shaky Allies

Ukraine’s future hangs in the balance as Western leaders meet this week to discuss Kyiv’s European Union membership bid and further aid for Ukraine’s war effort.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban is warning that Budapest will veto a decision to start accession talks for Ukraine to join the 27-nation bloc, accusing Ukraine of being “one of the most corrupt countries in the world.” A failure to begin these negotiations, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said, would have “devastating consequences” for Ukraine, which has sought to join the group since February 2022—just a few days into its war against Russia.

Orban, who has long touted his close relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin, has also threatened to block additional EU economic assistance to Ukraine. On Monday, Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto reiterated Orban’s stance by saying Budapest would not give into pressure, even as the EU prepares to release about $10.7 billion in funds to Hungary after it successfully argued that Budapest had made substantial democratic reforms to its judicial system. All 27 EU leaders are set to meet on Thursday and Friday in Brussels.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is set to visit Washington on Tuesday to meet with U.S. President Joe Biden and members of Congress. Talks will center on securing greater aid for Ukraine after Republicans blocked an emergency spending package last week that would have given Kyiv $61.4 billion in assistance, with high-ranking conservatives arguing that Biden must first address growing domestic border troubles before more Ukraine funding is approved.

As of mid-November, the Pentagon had spent 97 percent of previously approved aid for Ukraine, FP’s Robbie Gramer, Amy Mackinnon, and Jack Detsch reported. “Military experts paint a bleak picture of what could happen next if the spigot of U.S. military aid is cut off.”

Zelensky likely hopes that a closed-door session with senators on Tuesday will help break the logjam, but last week’s shouting match between Republican and Democratic lawmakers at a confidential briefing on the Russia-Ukraine war, which saw Zelensky cancel his virtual appearance at the last minute, casts doubt on the likelihood of success. All of this infighting over continued aid has left “a palpable sense of dread” among Ukraine’s biggest Western supporters, Gramer, Mackinnon, and Detsch wrote.

Zelensky met with International Monetary Fund (IMF) chief Kristalina Georgieva on Monday to sign off on a $900 million loan to Ukraine. The IMF also discussed Kyiv’s four-year, $15.6 billion Extended Fund Facility program, which was approved in March. Ukraine was required to raise tax revenue and boost anti-corruption efforts to qualify, and it now must ensure macroeconomic stability and continue postwar reconstruction to remain eligible.

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The World This Week

Tuesday, Dec. 12: The U.N. climate change conference (known as COP28) concludes in Dubai.

Tuesday, Dec. 12, to Wednesday, Dec. 13: NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg visits Saudi Arabia.

Chinese President Xi Jinping visits Vietnam.

South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol visits the Netherlands.

Wednesday, Dec. 13: U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken meets with Ecuadorian Foreign Minister Gabriela Sommerfeld.

Brussels hosts the EU-Western Balkans summit.

Thursday, Dec. 14: The European Central Bank determines its interest rate.

Thursday, Dec. 14, to Friday, Dec. 15: The World Trade Organization’s General Council meets.

Friday, Dec. 15: Russia’s central bank determines its interest rate.

Sunday, Dec. 17: Serbia holds snap parliamentary elections.

Chile holds a referendum vote on a new constitution.

Monday, Dec. 18: Iraq holds provincial elections.

Egypt announces its presidential election results.

What We’re Following

Targeting Hamas’s chief. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) took control of the area around Hamas’s former headquarters in Gaza City on Sunday, IDF spokesperson Daniel Hagari said. Known as Palestine Square, the area was home to the offices of Hamas leader Yehia Sinwar. Sinwar’s location remains unknown, though Hagari suggested that he is hiding in southern Gaza. His capture or death remains a top goal for the Israeli military.

In recent days, Israeli troops have focused their fighting on three alleged Hamas “strongholds”: Jabaliya and Shajaiye in northern Gaza and Khan Younis in southern Gaza. Extended strikes on Khan Younis are worrying international relief agencies that fighting could fuel a mass exodus of Palestinian refugees toward Egypt. The area’s humanitarian situation is deteriorating, United Nations officials warned, with locals reporting widespread food and water shortages. Egypt continues to oppose the relocation of Palestinians into its territory. More than 18,200 Palestinians have been killed since the war began, the Hamas-run Gaza Health Ministry estimates.

Surprise rejection. French parliamentarians rejected a tougher immigration bill on Monday that would have expelled more undocumented migrants and improved integration efforts. Both far-right and far-left lawmakers had opposed the legislation, with far-right politician Marine Le Pen leading the charge against the proposal. The surprise rejection was a blow to President Emmanuel Macron’s image, who had hoped the bill would improve his law-and-order reputation.

Many French experts were surprised by the quick turnaround, with some predicting that Macron might invoke Article 49.3 of the French Constitution, allowing parliament to pass a bill without a vote. No party holds the majority in France’s lower house. The last time Macron issued Article 49.3 was to pass his unpopular pension reform bill, triggering widespread public protests and demands for his removal.

But with conservatives joining forces to veto the immigration bill, Macron now must decide whether to send the legislation back to France’s upper house, try to find compromise among French lawmakers, or scrap it entirely.

Canberra curbs immigration. Australia announced on Monday that it would tighten visa rules for foreign students and low-skilled workers in a bid to decrease migrant intake numbers over the next two years. “The system is broken,” Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said last Friday regarding the country’s immigration laws as homelessness rises. Albanese hopes to bring migrant numbers down to 250,000 people, in line with pre-pandemic levels, by June 2025.

Under the new rules, students must earn higher scores on their English tests to be eligible for a visa, and greater scrutiny will be issued to applications seeking an extended stay. Meanwhile, the government will establish a new specialist visa for high-skilled workers that will boost recruitment efforts to better compete with global markets.

Odds and Ends

Loyal fans of K-pop boy band BTS offered a tearful goodbye to its members on Monday as the group went on hiatus so its members could complete South Korea’s mandatory 18-month military service. All seven singers will now serve in Seoul’s armed forces. Whether their conscription is dynamite or blood, sweat, and tears, though, is still to be seen. But hey, life goes on.