U.S. Congressional Fight Threatens to Derail Ukraine Aid

Welcome back to World Brief, where we’re looking at dwindling U.S. aid for Ukraine, a second Israeli ground offensive into southern Gaza, and Britain’s new Rwanda deportation treaty.

Shrinking Aid

A classified U.S. Senate briefing on military and humanitarian aid for Ukraine descended into disarray on Tuesday as lawmakers sparred over Republican demands that substantial new U.S. border security measures be included in any aid package.

The meeting came just one day before the U.S. Senate is set to vote on a nearly $106 billion funding bill, first proposed in October, that includes $61.4 billion that would go toward military and humanitarian aid for Ukraine as well as replenishing stockpiles of weapons that the Pentagon has already contributed to the war.

The Biden administration warned on Monday that Washington will run out of aid for Ukraine by the end of the year if Congress does not approve a new package in time. “Cutting off the flow of U.S. weapons and equipment will kneecap Ukraine on the battlefield, not only putting at risk the gains Ukraine has made, but increasing the likelihood of Russian military victories,” Shalanda Young, the director of the White House Office of Management and Budget, wrote in a letter to Congress.

However, Republican pushback on U.S. security policies has brought the vote to a standstill. Numerous conservative lawmakers have refused to approve the bill unless U.S. President Joe Biden tightens security measures at the U.S.-Mexico border and cracks down on illegal immigration into the United States, such as by providing funding to expand the construction of a border wall. “House Republicans have resolved that any national security supplemental package must begin with our own border,” U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson wrote on X in response to Young’s letter.

The spending bill already includes $13.6 billion for U.S. border management, including funding detention centers, asylum offices, and local governments. Other funding will aid Israel in its war against Hamas and assist Indo-Pacific nations in countering China.

During the classified briefing on Tuesday, which Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was scheduled to attend via video conference, Senate Republican leaders reportedly insisted on discussing border security with the Biden administration officials who were there to brief on Ukraine. This led to heated words and several Republican senators walking out of the briefing in anger, followed by Democratic Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer announcing that Zelensky would no longer be calling into the briefing.

In the meantime, Ukraine continues to struggle to make military headway against Russian troops. Kyiv’s latest counteroffensive has mostly stalled, with Ukrainian forces worried about losing ground amid the onslaught of another harsh winter and ensuing energy crisis.

Since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, Washington has supplied Kyiv with $111 billion in military and humanitarian assistance. But political squabbling has hindered greater Western aid. “Whereas we cannot know whether greater and faster delivery of weapons would have led to a Ukrainian military breakthrough, we do know that, without it, the result of Ukraine’s counteroffensive in the land war has been marginal at best,” Nona Mikhelidze and Nathalie Tocci argued in Foreign Policy.

Today’s Most Read

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• Rashid Khalidi: Biden Deserves an ‘F’ on the Middle East by Ravi Agrawal

What We’re Following

Attack on Khan Younis. Israeli forces advanced on the southern Gaza city of Khan Younis on Tuesday in their largest ground offensive since the end of a weeklong cease-fire last Friday. Locals report seeing Israeli tanks and warplanes target the city, with casualty numbers rising as Khan Younis’s main hospital struggles with overwhelmed capacity. Israeli troops also engaged in fighting in Jabalia, a Palestinian refugee camp allegedly used by Hamas in northern Gaza, as well as the Shuja’iyya neighborhood of Gaza City.

Monday not only saw the start of Israel’s second ground offensive into Gaza but also the resumption of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s corruption trial. The court had suspended proceedings following Hamas’s Oct. 7 attack. Netanyahu has been accused of bribery, fraud, and breach of trust, among other crimes—allegations that he argues are politically motivated. Israeli public opinion of the prime minister has deteriorated over his handling of the Israel-Hamas war, with many blaming Netanyahu for Oct. 7 security failures.

Rwanda treaty. British Home Secretary James Cleverly signed a treaty with Rwanda on Tuesday that overrules last month’s U.K. Supreme Court decision blocking asylum deportations to the African nation. The new agreement says Rwanda will accept asylum-seekers who enter Britain but will not send them to countries where their lives may be threatened, countering a key court concern. The treaty also establishes a monitoring committee for confidential complaints and an international appeals body.

By addressing the court’s worries, Downing Street hopes the new policy will now go into effect immediately. However, Labour Party leaders expect deportation flights will not begin until after next year’s election and have pledged to scrap the treaty if they secure a win. Current polling has Labour lawmakers leading Conservative politicians by double digits.

Clashes in Manipur. Ethnic violence struck northeastern India on Monday as conflict between the region’s majority Meitei Hindu residents and minority Kuki-Zo Christian community continued. Manipur police are investigating the deaths of at least 13 people killed in a gunfight, marking the deadliest clash in the area since violence began in May.

The region has long been a hotbed of ethnic tensions, with around 180 people killed in the last seven months and tens of thousands more displaced. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, whose Bharatiya Janata Party runs Manipur state, has been criticized for failing to curb escalating hostility, especially after he was slow to publicly condemn a violent mob that assaulted and paraded two naked women through the streets of Manipur in July.

Chart of the Week

The state of U.S.-China relations over the decades can be gauged in a number of ways, but one particularly revealing measure is how soon into their terms U.S. secretaries of state turned their attention to the country. In a new Foreign Policy analysis, we examine the data going back 50 years and what it can tell us about the history and current shape of Washington’s engagement with Beijing.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken was 873 days into his tenure before he traveled to Beijing, more than 17 times the amount of time it took his predecessor, Mike Pompeo, to make the trip. That is the longest period since William Rogers steered the State Department in the early 1970s under then-President Richard Nixon.

For a deeper look into historic strained tensions between the two global superpowers, dive into Foreign Policy’s analysis of U.S.-China GDP competition.

Odds and Ends

One of Italy’s famous leaning towers will hopefully soon no longer be at risk of collapse—no, not Pisa, a different one. Bologna officials on Friday announced a $4.7 million effort to bolster the city’s Garisenda tower and ensure the 12th-century leaning structure will live to see another day. The shorter of the so-called Two Towers in central Bologna, Garisenda has tipped since it was constructed but sustained additional damage over the years due to new structures built inside it. With Friday’s announcement, the city hopes the tower will soon no longer pose a hazard to those eager to see its tilted stone walls.