Blinken’s Whirlwind Shuttle Diplomacy Weekend

Welcome back to World Brief, where we’re looking at U.S. diplomatic efforts in the Middle East, deadly earthquakes in Nepal, and improved relations between China and Australia.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with his Turkish counterpart, Hakan Fidan, in Ankara on Monday to discuss expanding humanitarian aid into Gaza and preventing the war there from spreading beyond Israeli-Palestinian borders.

His visit followed talks in Jordan on Saturday with regional diplomats from Egypt, Jordan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates as well as with Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati before conducting surprise trips to the West Bank and Iraq on Sunday, where he met with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, respectively.

Since the Israel-Hamas conflict began, many of Israel’s neighbors have played proxy roles that the Biden administration hopes to capitalize on. Egypt, which borders the Gaza Strip, continues to deliver humanitarian aid into Gaza as it transports foreign nationals out of the war-torn area. Qatar has emphasized its ties with Hamas to cement its role as a lead mediator in the ongoing effort to secure the release of the more than 200 hostages that Hamas is still holding captive. And Lebanon remains the home base for Hezbollah, a Hamas-allied militant group that regularly engages in clashes with Israeli troops along their shared border.

Blinken centered this weekend’s negotiations on protecting Palestinian civilians, boosting aid flows, and increasing the number of foreign citizens allowed to leave Gaza. He also advocated for localized humanitarian pauses in fighting but stopped short of calling for a cease-fire. “It is our view now that a cease-fire would simply leave Hamas in place, able to regroup and repeat what it did,” Blinken said.

But Middle East leaders continued to advocate for an immediate cease-fire, with Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry arguing that Israel’s “right to self-defense” does not condone the “collective punishment” of all Palestinians.

Relations among Israel, the United States, and other Middle East nations are growing more strained as the Israel Defense Forces continue their land, sea, and air offensive in Gaza. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan did not meet with Blinken on Monday—signaling Ankara’s continued criticism of the United States’ “unlimited support for Israel.” Sunday’s talks between Abbas and Blinken lasted less than an hour due to a failure to find common ground on cease-fire calls. Jordan recalled its ambassador to Israel last week and told Israel’s envoy not to return until the war is over. On Saturday, Turkey announced that it had also recalled its ambassador to Israel.

Monday concluded Blinken’s second trip to the Middle East since Hamas’s Oct. 7 missile attack. On Tuesday, Blinken heads to Tokyo for a two-day meeting of G-7 foreign ministers before starting on an Indo-Pacific pivot that will include visits to South Korea and India. But the Israel-Hamas war is expected to remain at the forefront of his diplomatic agenda.

• The Inevitable Fall of Putin’s New Russian Empire by Alexander J. Motyl
• What Happens to Gaza After the War? by Amy Mackinnon
• Why the Global South Is Accusing America of Hypocrisy by Oliver Stuenkel

Tuesday, Nov. 7: Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba visits Brussels.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen meets with Jordanian King Abdullah II.

U.S. climate envoy John Kerry concludes a four-day visit to China.

Tuesday, Nov. 7, to Wednesday, Nov. 8: G-7 foreign ministers meet in Tokyo.

Wednesday, Nov. 8, to Friday, Nov. 10: Uzbekistan hosts the Economic Cooperation Organization.

Thursday, Nov. 9: French President Emmanuel Macron hosts a forum on the humanitarian situation in Gaza.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg meet in Berlin.

Thursday, Nov. 9, to Friday, Nov. 10: U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen meets with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng in San Francisco.

Friday, Nov. 10: India hosts a 2+2 ministerial dialogues with the United States.

The Cook Islands concludes the weeklong Pacific Islands Forum.

Friday, Nov. 10, to Saturday, Nov. 11: France hosts the Paris Peace Forum.

Sunday, Nov. 12: Argentina holds a presidential runoff debate.

Deadly tremors. After a devastating 5.7-magnitude earthquake struck Nepal late Friday, another series of smaller quakes rocked the country on Monday. At least 157 people have been killed and hundreds more injured thus far, making it the deadliest earthquake to hit Nepal since 2015, when around 9,000 people were killed in back-to-back quakes.

Nepalese authorities warned of worsening humanitarian conditions for survivors on Monday as landslides block major roadways and local hospitals are inundated with wounded civilians. The nation’s cabinet announced the immediate transportation of emergency aid on Sunday, with Communications Minister Rekha Sharma saying that the construction of temporary shelters is the administration’s primary concern after search and rescue operations concluded on Monday.

Panda-Tasmanian devil diplomacy. Chinese President Xi Jinping signaled growing cooperation with Australia on Monday during his meeting with Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese in Beijing. It marks the first visit by an Australian leader to China in seven years, following a period of heightened tensions between the two countries. Amid jokes about which country has the cutest native critters, Xi and Albanese emphasized the importance of boosting trade ties between the two Indo-Pacific powers. Albanese’s trip will conclude on Tuesday.

The Australian prime minister has prioritized improving ties with Beijing since taking office in May 2022. His efforts pushed China to lift some trade restrictions on Australian products during the G-20 summit in Bali, Indonesia, last November and helped release detained Australian journalist Cheng Lei last month. But as Canberra continues to solidify ties with the United States and United Kingdom, growing anti-Western sentiment in China remains a key obstacle for closer China-Australia relations.

Hunger strike. Iranian Nobel laureate Narges Mohammadi began a hunger strike on Monday to protest prisoners’ lack of medical attention. Mohammadi, who is currently serving a yearslong sentence in Iran’s Evin prison for her women’s rights advocacy work, has been denied critical hospital care twice because she refuses to wear a headscarf. Mohammadi won the 2023 Nobel Peace Prize for her fight against women’s oppression by Iran’s so-called morality police.

Mohammadi’s latest move against gender discrimination comes as Iran’s morality police force cracks down on its mandatory hijab law. In September, Iran’s parliament passed a new bill that imposes bigger fines and prison sentences on people who violate the headscarf law. But growing public dissent is revealing Tehran’s “struggle to balance its ideological principles with its pragmatic interests,” namely to identify as an Islamic state while also adapting to a modernizing society, Sina Toossi argued in Foreign Policy.

The United Kingdom’s loneliest sheep is finally among friends after local farmers rescued the stranded animal from steep cliffs in the Scottish Highlands this weekend. Fiona had spent the past two years stuck at the foot of Scotland’s Cromarty Firth before a local kayak paddler noticed that the sheep had not moved from the isolated spot. Clad in thick fleece and surrounded by rescuers, Fiona will now spend her days at a local farm park.