Biden Scrounges Up More U.S. Weapons for Ukraine

Welcome back to Foreign Policy’s SitRep! Jack here, getting a kick out of this mural of legendary NBA coach Phil Jackson’s career in the North Dakota governor’s office that Twitter (…err, X) is joking resembles something from Baathist Iraq.

Alright, here’s what’s on tap for the day: Ukraine is (finally) getting another injection of U.S. military aid, some House Republicans are fans of Biden’s China executive order, and four wrongfully detained Americans in Iran could be freed very soon.

Ukraine Is Reloading

Ukraine is set to get a much-needed shot in the arm in the form of more U.S. military aid. The Biden administration has unveiled its $13 billion proposal to restock weapons for Kyiv. Lawmakers got a briefing on Thursday afternoon about the plans, a congressional aide and another person familiar with the plan told SitRep.

The money could prevent the U.S. administration from pillaging the couch cushions of the Pentagon’s accounts to send more weapons to Ukraine. In June, the U.S. Department of Defense acknowledged that it had overvalued the weapons it had already sent to Ukraine by $6.2 billion, giving the agency another lifeline to send more assistance as the money from Biden’s previous aid package had waned.

Not in time? But it may not be enough, and some Republicans are frustrated that the administration’s proposal is too little, too late. Ukraine is burning through up to 7,000 artillery shells per day—a number that has likely shot up amid the military counteroffensive that formally kicked off in June—and the United States and Europe haven’t caught up to the demand.

And Ukraine, as is its wont, wants more. Though Great Britain and France have provided long-range missiles to aid Ukraine’s advance into Russian lines, the United States and Germany are more reluctant to do so. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, visiting troops in Bavaria last week, said that Ukraine had “no urgent need” for Berlin’s long-range Taurus missiles.

Biden has hinted that the United States is considering sending its variant, the U.S. Army Tactical Missile System, better known as ATACMS, that can hit targets up to 200 miles away. But it’s not on the way yet. Other reports indicate the Taurus and ATACMS could be announced at the same time.

Softening support? No, $13 billion isn’t pocket change, but it’s one-third of the $37 billion that Biden requested for Ukraine aid last November, on top of $40 billion approved in late spring. And with wildfires blazing in Hawaii and on the west coast of the United States, the Ukraine aid is being pushed aside for other priorities.

Let’s Get Personnel

Another vacancy at the top of the U.S. military looms due to Republican Sen. Tommy Tuberville’s hold on the Pentagon’s nominations of top military officers due to a U.S. Department of Defense policy that funds service members’ travel to obtain abortions. Adm. Mike Gilday is set to relinquish his job as chief of naval operations on Monday. Adm. Lisa Franchetti, the current vice chief of naval operations who has been nominated by Biden to take over the service, will assume the job in an acting role. That will mean three of the six U.S. military service branches will be led by acting officials: the Army, the Navy, and the Marines. For those scoring at home, the Air Force, Space Force, and Coast Guard are still represented.

On the Button

What should be high on your radar, if it isn’t already.

Outbound. The Biden administration’s executive action to curb the flow of U.S. investment into Chinese firms linked to Beijing’s technology and military sectors is earning plaudits from an unlikely bunch: House Republicans. Reps. Patrick McHenry and Blaine Luetkemeyer issued a statement calling the order “more thoughtful and targeted” than anticipated. Biden’s new rules, which won’t take effect until next year, will give Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen the ability to regulate U.S. investment toward China’s quantum computing, advanced semiconductor, and military-linked artificial intelligence industries, but stops short of regulating electric vehicles and biotechnology, which had long been on the table.

Not everyone is happy, though. House China Select Committee Chairman Mike Gallagher said that loopholes in the rules are “wide enough to sail the PLA [People’s Liberation Army] Navy fleet through” and don’t address U.S. money flowing into companies linked to the Chinese Communist Party.

Hotline bling. And meanwhile, China is not picking up the phone to address regional military crises, either. The Philippines could not reach China through an established military hotline when a Chinese vessel shot a water cannon and obstructed Philippine vessels in the West Philippine Sea—also known as the South China Sea—last week, the nation’s Department of Foreign Affairs said on Monday. That hotline was established as recently as January, when Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. traveled to Beijing to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping. The incident has experts again questioning the wisdom of trying to reason with China on military matters.

“No country should assume that Beijing is willing to use hotlines in a crisis,” tweeted Bonnie Glaser, the managing director of the Indo-Pacific Program at the German Marshall Fund think tank. “The U.S. should stop pressing the PLA to establish more hotlines. We need to think creatively about other ways to ensure effective crisis management with China.”

Busting out. Four American citizens wrongfully detained in Iran have been released from prison and transferred to house arrest, a lawyer for one of the prisoners confirmed to CNN, a sign that the long-jailed detainees could be stateside again soon (a fifth person was already under house arrest). Americans Siamak Namazi, Emad Shargi, Morad Tahbaz, and a fourth person whose name has not been released were transferred from Evin Prison and are set to be held in a hotel under Iranian guard until further notice.

“While this is a positive change, we will not rest until Siamak and others are back home; we continue to count the days until this can happen,” Babak Namazi, a brother of one of the hostages, said in a statement.

Snapshot

Firefighters battle a wildfire in Carrascal, Proença-a-Nova, Portugal, on Aug. 6, 2023. PATRICIA DE MELO MOREIRA/AFP via Getty Images

Put On Your Radar

Today: U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken is set to host Mexican Secretary of Foreign Affairs Alicia Bárcena Ibarra in Foggy Bottom.

The Economic Community of West African States hosts a second emergency summit over the coup in Niger after the putsch leaders ignored a Sunday deadline to restore constitutional order or risk regional military intervention.

Friday, Aug. 11: The quarterfinals of the FIFA Women’s World Cup are set to kick off with Spain facing the Netherlands and Japan going up against Sweden (who vanquished the U.S. women’s side earlier this week) in New Zealand (you can technically watch Spain-Netherlands tonight in the United States).

Saturday, Aug. 12: Taiwan’s vice president, William Lai, is set to land in New York as part of a multiday trip to North and Central America that will also see the front-runner in the island’s 2024 presidential race stop in Paraguay, one of Taipei’s oldest diplomatic allies.

Tuesday, Aug. 15: Speaking of Paraguay, the country’s new president, Santiago Peña Palacios, is set to be inaugurated early next week. Lai, the Taiwanese veep, will be in attendance.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is set to give a speech marking India’s 76th anniversary of independence from the United Kingdom.

Tuesday also marks the two-year anniversary of former Afghan President Ashraf Ghani fleeing the country as the Taliban marched into Kabul.

Quote of the Week

“I miss the sun. In my cell, the sunlight shines through the window, but I can stand in it for only 10 hours a year.”

—Australian journalist Cheng Lei, who has been imprisoned in China for three years, issued her first public statement this week through diplomats who are allowed to speak with her.

Whiskey Tango Foxtrot

Too chummy? One of Niger’s coup plotters, Brig. Gen. Moussa Salaou Barmou, is a close friend of the United States. How close? Here is Barmou, a graduate of the National Defense University, hugging it out with Lt. Gen. Jonathan Braga, head of the U.S. Army Special Operations Command, less than two months ago.