Ukraine Brings the Pain

Welcome back to Foreign Policy’s SitRep! Jack and Robbie here. No, stop asking. We have not seen Barbenheimer yet. Why don’t you go ask our FP colleague Jenn Williams about it? 

Alright, here’s what’s on tap for the day: Ukraine begins the “spring” counteroffensive in earnest, Biden makes it personal with Senate Republicans, and the State Department doesn’t have enough butter to counter China in the Indo-Pacific.

Here Comes the Boom

OK, maybe this is not the main thrust. U.S. officials, at least, insist they’re not sure. 

But that vaunted Ukrainian military counteroffensive that has been rumored, then promised, then delivered, then under-delivered, could finally be hitting its stride. 

The Ukrainian military began sending major Western-trained units such as the 47th Artillery Brigade and the 47th Mechanized Brigade into Russian lines as early as June. 

But with those troops encountering gnarly minefields, dragon’s teeth, and artillery kill zones, Kyiv had held back on sending other large Western-trained units such as the 10th Operational Corps. Ukrainian officials, all the way up to President Volodymyr Zelensky, also remain concerned about dwindling Western supplies of ammunition, with air defenses a main focal point of a meeting between the Ukrainian leader and some of his military commanders in Dnipro today. 

Phase two. On Thursday, the Ukrainian military confirmed that its units had started to move south into the jaws of those Russian defenses, a sign that it had started to commit larger portions of reserves. The main route of attack appears to be a deeper push into occupied areas of Zaporizhzhia oblast, which borders the Sea of Azov, first toward the cities of Orikhiv and Robotyne, with another salvo coming toward Russian-occupied Melitopol and Berdyansk. 

Again, it’s early. Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar termed this as Ukrainian forces “gradually advancing” toward the Sea of Azov, which Russia further fenced off during the full-scale invasion with the seizure—and outright catastrophic destruction—of the port city of Mariupol. 

The Institute for the Study of War think tank assessed that the Ukrainians had success in at least one initial salvo: breaking through parts of Russian prepared defenses south of the city of Orikhiv. Russian war bloggers also said that Ukraine had taken the town of Staromaiorske, perhaps in a thrust to split occupied areas in Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia.

Learning to fight. These aren’t the days of 40-mile-long Russian convoys anymore. Ukraine has also been fending off Russian troops that appear at least somewhat tactically and technologically resilient, even as the ranks of flag officers and the Russian defense industry have taken a pounding. Ukraine’s Air Force commander, Mykola Oleshchuk, said on Wednesday that Russia had fired Kinzhal hypersonic missiles to try to hit an airfield storing some of Ukraine’s supplies of long-range British Storm Shadow missiles.  

The Ukrainian push also prompted a rare response from Vladimir Putin. The Russian president said that his troops were repelling Ukrainian attacks in Zaporizhzhia and had inflicted heavy losses—citing no direct evidence.

Let’s Get Personnel

Strap in. U.S. President Joe Biden has a bevy of new nominations this week. 

Overruling U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, Biden has tapped Adm. Lisa Franchetti—the Navy’s current no. 2 military official—to be the next chief of naval operations (Adm. Mike Gilday’s four-year term is up next month). Franchetti would be the first woman to serve on the Joint Chiefs of Staff. 

Biden has picked Gen. David Allvin, currently the Air Force’s no. 2 officer, to be the chief of staff of the service, replacing his old boss, Gen. Charles Q. Brown, who is awaiting Senate confirmation to become chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. 

If Biden gets his way—more on that later—Franchetti’s deputy in that job would be Vice Adm. James Kilby, who currently serves as deputy commander of U.S. Fleet Forces Command.

The runner-up to serve as the Navy’s top sailor (and Austin’s choice for chief of naval operations), Adm. Samuel Paparo, is being tapped to head up U.S. Indo-Pacific Command in Hawaii. Vice Adm. Stephen Koehler would take over Paparo’s old job as commander of U.S. Pacific Fleet (Fun fact: That is also the job held by fictional Adm. Tom “Iceman” Kazansky in Top Gun: Maverick.).

But these nominees might not be going anywhere soon. Alabama Sen. Tommy Tuberville is still holding up 270 military appointments over the Pentagon’s decision to allow service members to travel to get abortions. Tuberville’s hold has even left the U.S. Marine Corps without an acting commandant.

There is hope that the former Auburn University football coach might step aside as the Pentagon’s annual authorizing bill moves forward in Congress this week—and the pressure is mounting: Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman Jack Reed began to read out the names of the nominees in a challenge to Tuberville on the Senate floor this week. 

On the civilian side of the Pentagon bureaucracy, Biden has tapped State Department counselor Derek Chollet to be the Pentagon’s top policy official. Chollet was once the executive vice president at the German Marshall Fund think tank and the Pentagon’s assistant secretary for international security affairs during the Obama administration. 

In the cyber world, Biden has tapped Harry Coker Jr., a former NSA and CIA official, to be the national cyber director, after Chris Inglis stepped down from the role earlier this year.

Over at the State Department, Biden wants Stephan Lang to be the U.S. coordinator for international communications and information policy. And career diplomat and Africa hand Joann Lockard is Biden’s pick to be the next U.S. ambassador to Burkina Faso (a country that U.S. intelligence officials have long feared could be the next target for the Russian mercenary Wagner Group). 

Biden also wants to fill some of the longest-vacant jobs in government. He tapped Cardell Richardson to be the State Department’s inspector general and Paul Martin to do the same job at the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID). The State Department has been without a Senate-confirmed watchdog for three years, since former President Donald Trump controversially removed Steve Linick as he was probing the administration’s bypassing of Congress to sell U.S. weapons to Saudi Arabia. USAID hasn’t had a confirmed appointee in the job for about the same amount of time.  

Whew, got all that? 

One last thing: Jones Group International has brought on retired four-star Gen. Tod Wolters as a senior advisor. Wolters was the dual-hatted NATO supreme allied commander Europe and U.S. European Command chief until last summer.

On the Button

What should be high on your radar, if it isn’t already.

China, China, China. A State Department analysis shared with Congress and obtained by Robbie and Jack indicates that the agency has a $41.3 billion gap in funding to challenge China’s diplomatic muscle in the Indo-Pacific over the next five years. The agency’s wish list includes sending $10 billion in U.S. military aid to Taiwan, expanding assistance to the Pacific Islands, and beginning to set up or build upon American diplomatic embassies and consulates in those countries, which include the Maldives, Solomon Islands, Tonga, Fiji, Vanuatu, and Kiribati.

“The diplomatic footprint hasn’t been what it’s needed to be. The foreign assistance spending hasn’t been what it has needed to be,” said David Feith, a former deputy assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific Affairs during the Trump administration. “They also haven’t spent in all of the right ways.”

Terrorize this. More battles in Foggy Bottom for you. FP’s Amy Mackinnon reports that the State Department is pushing back on a congressional effort to label Russia’s Wagner Group as a terrorist organization over fears that the tag could jeopardize the ability of diplomats to bring nations like Mali and the Central African Republic back into the American fold that have fallen under Russian influence. Blacklisting the group could make African nations on the fence about bringing in Wagnerites think twice, but the U.S. administration has been wary of repeating the Cold War battle for influence on the continent.

Snapshot

A protester carries a flare during a demonstration against the Israeli government’s judicial reform plan in Tel Aviv on July 27. Photo by JACK GUEZ/AFP via Getty Images

Put on Your Radar

Today: U.S. President Joe Biden hosts talks with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken visits New Zealand. Meanwhile, at the Kremlin, Russian President Vladimir Putin is hosting the Russia-Africa summit. 

Just 17 heads of state have shown up, as opposed to 43 in 2019, due to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine (Kenyan President William Ruto is especially upset about the Kremlin’s withdrawal from the Black Sea grain deal.). Also apparently leaving Putin hanging: Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, who left the Russian leader awkwardly pacing around a Kremlin meeting room for several minutes. 

Friday, July 28: French President Emmanuel Macron is set to visit Papua New Guinea (The French leader already upstaged U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin’s visit to the island earlier this week.). 

Saturday, July 29: Blinken and Austin are set to meet with Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong and Defense Minister Richard Marles in the second “2+2” meeting between the United States and Canberra in the last six months (the U.S. meets in a similar format with regional allies such as Japan and South Korea).

Tuesday, August 1: The United States assumes the rotating monthlong presidency of the United Nations Security Council from the United Kingdom. 

Quote of the Week

“Chronic problems of Czechia: we don’t kidnap children, bomb hospitals, and occupy neighbours. Get out of Ukraine.”

—The Czech Ministry of Foreign Affairs dunks on a Russian government tweet criticizing “chronic problems” in the Czech Republic, those problems mostly being Moscow’s perception that Prague is on “a Russophobic course.”

This Week’s Most Read

• Spartans Were Losers by Bret Devereaux
• Putin’s Fear of Strong Generals Is as Old as Russia Itself by Simon Sebag Montefiore
• The Long Shadow of Oppenheimer’s Trinity Test by Jack Detsch and Anusha Rathi

Whiskey Tango Foxtrot

Pride goeth before a fall. Outgoing 90-year-old Sen. Dianne Feinstein is having a bit more trouble these days and is under significant pressure to resign. When called upon during a routine roll-call vote on a defense appropriations bill in the Senate today, Feinstein instead launched into a speech. In an off-mic moment caught by reporters, someone whispered a hint to the California nonagenarian: “Just say aye.”

It’s not the only senior moment in the Senate this week. Eighty-one-year-old Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell froze up during a press conference for a full 20 seconds. That awkward pause prompted reporters to dig around and discover that McConnell had fallen multiple times this year: during a delegation trip to Finland in February and in a faceplant at Reagan National Airport earlier this month. 

And they’re not the only ones getting older: The Senate’s median age has ticked up above 65, according to Pew.