Market consensus is for Trump to win White House: JPMorgan

Madison Mills
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According to a note from JPMorgan Chase (JPM), market consensus points to Donald Trump winning the White House. Yahoo Finance Senior Columnist Rick Newman joins Catalysts to discuss why he thinks this position is "premature" and what the upcoming debate between the two presidential candidates might look like.

For more expert insight and the latest market action, click here to watch this full episode of Catalysts.

This post was written by Nicholas Jacobino

Video Transcript

And ahead to the 2024 election.

We've got a new note out of JP Morgan saying market consensus is for Trump to win the White House.

But overall investors are not that concerned about the election, at least right now, only 12% of J PM survey respondents see the upcoming election as the biggest threat to the market rally.

Let's bring in Rick Newman for more.

Rick.

I immediately sat up when I saw this news because we've all been talking about what the market is pricing in ahead of this election.

How big of a deal does this seem to you?

I think this uh market consensus is premature.

Uh This race is basically a toss up and it's very possible that what whatever is going to turn the outcome, either to Trump or Biden, assume both of them make it to the finish line.

It's possible that that thing hasn't even happened yet.

Uh I mean, I think we've got uh more uh black swan risk than you normally would have an election given number one the age of these two candidates.

Uh and everything that's going on with Donald Trump.

Uh We're gonna have two debates.

Uh The debates can be decisive, things can happen during those debates.

Uh And let's just, let's not forget Trump is now a convicted felon and there's gonna be a sentencing in uh in July when he, he may actually get sentenced to jail time.

Um So I, I think it, it would be a big mistake to assume that Trump has this in the bag.

We still have almost five months to go until election day and there's just a ton that can happen between now and then, Rick, you mentioned that first debate coming up at the end of this month.

What do you think is going to drive the conversation points in that debate?

Is it the economy, is it geopolitical risks or is it something else?

Well, I have to, I have to believe the moderators are going to raise the issue of, uh, Donald Trump's conviction in the New York court a couple of weeks ago on 34 felony counts.

Um, I don't, I don't know that Biden himself has to say too much about that.

But I think, uh, I, I mean, I'd, I'd be astonished if that is not, you know, a huge focus of ads and billboards and swing state commercials, uh, you know, during the last two or three months of the election.

Um, I, I guess the, um, the moderators will ask about issues.

I mean, there are a lot of issues at stake here, especially for investors.

I mean, the big one is uh is these tax cuts, the 2017 tax cuts that expire at the end of 2025.

So the next president is going to have a major role in that.

There's talk of either raising the corporate tax rate if you're Joe Biden, if President Biden gets a second term or lowering the corporate tax rate.

If Donald Trump wins a second term, there are the tariffs on China that Trump wants to impose and a lot of other factors for investors.

Uh, I, I mean, it's, I think it's just still too early for investors to be, uh, basically betting on the outcome of the election.

But I think that's going to change in, uh, in September and October.

I think we're gonna get a lot more intense focus on the polls in the six or seven swing states.

You might start to see the market go up or down based on what some polls show is because there are a lot of, uh, issues that the next president is going to have to determine that will affect markets.

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