The Moonshot: MLB Trade deadline buyers and sellers, Orioles–Phillies and more

Well, we believe in exit velocity, bat flips, launch angles, stealing home, the hanging curveball, Big League Chew, sausage races, and that unwritten rules of any kind are self-indulgent, overrated crap. We believe Greg Maddux was an actual wizard. We believe there ought to be a constitutional amendment protecting minor league baseball and that pitch framing is both an art and a science. We believe in the sweet spot, making WARP not war, letting your closer chase a two-inning save, and we believe love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good, too.

Welcome to The Moonshot.

1. How are we feeling about the idea of this weekend’s Phillies–Orioles series as a potential World Series preview?

Terrence Jordan: Honestly, pretty good! The Phillies have shaken off concerns about an easy early schedule by continuing to beat up on all comers, including a sweep of the NL Central-leading Brewers last week. Philly has had the best starting pitching in baseball, and even more importantly, their starters are going deep into games. This means a fresh bullpen when the postseason rolls around. The Orioles lead the majors in runs per game, and with how young they are, they’re only going to keep getting better. Gunnar Henderson is on an MVP pace and Corbin Burnes has been as good as advertised. After last year’s postseason taste, Baltimore will be much better equipped this time around to make a run.

Zachary Rotman: A Phillies-Orioles World Series matchup feels like one of if not the most likely outcome so far. The Phillies have looked like the best team in the National League all season long, and have the postseason results to suggest that they have a deep run in them. Baltimore fell short in this core’s first taste of postseason action, but they’re much better this season than they were a year ago. Not only do they have Corbin Burnes, but their young players, mainly Gunnar Henderson, have improved dramatically. They could use some more pitching help, but this Orioles team has the ingredients to make a deep run.

Robert Murray: It looks like the most likely outcome and that means it probably isn’t going to happen, right? Baseball never seems to end up how we all think it will. Injuries happen. Random hot streaks happen. Anything can happen over the course of a 162-game season and especially the postseason. But there is no doubting the firepower from both teams is perhaps the best in both leagues. The Phillies look like a juggernaut. The Orioles, meanwhile, have the best young nucleus of talent in recent baseball history. Both teams look prolific, and a matchup between the two for the World Series appears the way this season is headed.

2. The Yankees lost three of four to the Orioles at the beginning of last month. What do they need to prove in their second series of the year?

Terrence Jordan: The Yankees scored only six runs in four games the last time these teams met, but I have faith that their bats won’t get held down again. To prove that they have what it takes to actually win the AL East, it’s the pitching that needs to take center stage. Luis Gil has been phenomenal, and he shut the O’s down when they met in early May for the Yanks’ lone win in the series. Carlos Rodon and Nestor Cortes were hit hard, though. Along with Marcus Stroman, they need to keep the majors’ home run leaders in the yard.

Zachary Rotman: The Yankees did lose three of four against the Orioles earlier in the year, but that was before Aaron Judge turned into this superhuman version of himself. Judge is playing better than anyone I’ve seen in recent memory, and there’s no reason to believe that’ll stop against an Orioles team he has historically owned. The Yankees were able to contain Baltimore’s dynamic offense for the most part, but New York managed only six runs in four games. If Judge continues to hit home runs seemingly every time he steps up to the plate, their offense should have more luck. They need to prove they can score against this Orioles pitching staff. Having Judge be Judge would go a long way.

Robert Murray: I think the Yankees need to prove they are more than just Aaron Judge, Juan Soto and Giancarlo Stanton on offense. I think their bullpen needs to be better. Both issues can be fixed at the trade deadline, and I expect general manager Brian Cashman to be active in addressing each area at the trade deadline. If they don’t, it could be a similar outcome the rest of the season as it was in the first series of the year between these two squads.

3. The Astros, Blue Jays, Cardinals and Mets are all on the outside looking in. Who should be buying to stay in the Wild Card race and who should be selling and planning for next year?

Terrence Jordan: The Astros and Mets are the two teams that I could most see climbing back into the race, but that doesn’t mean they should be looking to trade future assets for short-term gains. The Blue Jays already made the first move towards selling by sending Cavan Biggio to the Dodgers, and I expect more moves to follow. The Cardinals should do the same if another team is willing to give them prospects for their pricey veterans, but it feels like they’ll hold pat as long as they hover close to .500.

Zachary Rotman: As of right now, the Mets and Blue Jays look like teams that should be selling, mainly because of the bevy of expiring deals both teams have. Pete Alonso, Luis Severino, Yusei Kikuchi, and Yimi Garcia are only four of so many players these teams have on short-term deals that can bring back strong returns. The Astros don’t have much to sell outside of Alex Bregman (unless Kyle Tucker becomes available), so they shouldn’t consider that unless they’re certainly out of it. The Cardinals are tougher because they haven’t proven they can win at a sustainable level at all, but they’re only 0.5 games out of a Wild Card spot as of this writing, so if they can get a bat and a rotation arm, perhaps they can squeak in. As of now, I’d say they should be buyers because of that skinny deficit, but another frustrating loss can easily change my mind.

Robert Murray: I believe the Astros will buy. That is what they have signaled, both privately and publicly, and I expect them to follow through on that. I also believe that the Blue Jays, Cardinals and Mets should all sell at the deadline – to an extent. Almost all players on expiring contracts should be fair game, but I don’t expect the Blue Jays to trade Vladimir Guerrero Jr. or Bo Bichette. I think the Mets have to be open to listening to offers for Pete Alonso, but the idea of trading him and then signing him in the offseason is tricky. If I was the Mets (spoiler: I’m not), it would take a too-good-to-be-true offer to move Alonso — and I’m not sure that offer will be presented.