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Best NBA First Basket Scorer Picks for Thursday, May 30 (Target Luka Doncic, Mike Conley)

Here's who you should bet to score the first basket in the Western Conference Finals on Thursday, May 30.

By Peter Dewey

Dallas Mavericks guard Luka Doncic (77) shoots against Minnesota Timberwolves guard Mike Conley.
Dallas Mavericks guard Luka Doncic (77) shoots against Minnesota Timberwolves guard Mike Conley. / Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
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The Western Conference Finals are still rolling (thankfully for us basketball fans), which means we have another shot to bet on a first basket scorer in the Dallas Mavericks-Minnesota Timberwolves matchup.

Through four games in this series, we’ve gone 50 percent on first basket scorers – a great start – with Luka Doncic cashing in Game 1 and Mike Conley doing so in Game 3. 

Here’s a quick recap of who scored first in every game so far this series: 

  • Game 1: Luka Doncic
  • Game 2: Daniel Gafford
  • Game 3: Mike Conley
  • Game 4: Kyrie Irving

Each game, I’ve been giving out two players that I think will score first, and while Game 4’s picks (Doncic and Karl-Anthony Towns) didn’t come through, Doncic did attempt the first shot of the game – he just missed it. 

Let’s use this information to make a pair of picks in Game 5 with the season on the line once again for the Wolves.

NBA First Basket Scorer Picks and Predictions

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

  • Luka Doncic First Basket Scorer (+600)
  • Mike Conley First Basket Scorer (+950)

Luka Doncic First Basket Scorer (+600)

Is this an ode to the two picks I made in Game 3?

It just might be. 

Doncic has been the pick throughout this series, as he’s attempted the first shot of the game on the Dallas side more often than not, moving his first shot percentage on the season to 15.1 percent. 

Not only has Luka made more first baskets (14) than anyone else in this series, but he has the highest usage rate of any player as well. 

That bodes well for his chances of starting the game with the ball, and it’s worth noting that Dallas has the edge in jump ball win percentage now on the season after these teams came into the series both around 44 percent. 

Luka has already come through with one first basket, yet his odds have dropped from the +500 they were at earlier in the series to +600. That alone makes him worth a bet in this matchup. 

Mike Conley First Basket Scorer (+950)

Yes, I’m hopping back on the Mike Conley bandwagon after he cashed at +1000 in Game 3.

Conley is wildly undervalued in this market at +950 odds considering that he is tied for first on the Wolves in first baskets made this season (11) and has the highest first shot percentage on the team (12.2 percent). 

Anthony Edwards is +600 in this market, yet he attempts the first shot just 6.4 percent of the time and has only five first baskets on the season. 

Conley has played well offensively in the last three games, scoring 14 or more points in each of them, and I wouldn’t be shocked if the Wolves look to their veteran point guard to set the tone early for a critical Game 5 on Thursday night.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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