Timber Market Report Archives

2024

Timber Market Report 1st Quarter
January - March 2024

2023

Timber Market Report 4th Quarter
October - December 2023

Timber Market Report 3rd Quarter
July - September 2023

Timber Market Report 2nd Quarter
April - June 2023

Timber Market Report 1st Quarter
January - March 2023

Dr. Ray's Comments: The rebound in timber stumpage prices wasn't as strong as might have expected for first-quarter numbers. East side numbers rebounded, but to a level roughly 20% lower than first quarter of 2022. West side numbers continued a slow but steady decline for the fourth straight quarter, which roughly equals the length of the run-up in 2021 into 2022. So, the impact of the wild lumber price fluctuations of 2021 and 2022 seems to have played out, and "normal" moderate fluctuations in timber markets may prevail for the near future.

A week of visiting building component manufacturers last week (May 8 - 12) gave me the sense that we have returned to a period of normality. Most plants were saying they weren't busy, but they weren't slow either. Some seemed optimistic and were preparing for increasing levels of orders over the next few years by adding production capacity. Experts are saying they expect new-home demand to increase as younger buyers warm up to the higher mortgage interest rates that seem to be locked in by inflationary pressure. For hardwood stumpage, that probably means the market will at least hold at current levels for a while.

I wrote last quarter about pulpwood prices here, and the data this quarter confirms that prices remain very low (around $1 per ton) for hardwood pulpwood. Even worse, twelve reports of softwood pulpwood prices came in, all at $0 per ton. I guess the mulch producers are feeling pretty good right now.

2022

Timber Market Report 4th Quarter
October - December 2022

Dr. Ray's Comments: As I hinted in the last quarter's report, downward pressure on lumber futures did indeed continue to exert downward pressure on stumpage prices. As we see in the East side graphs, that pressure resulted in a steady downward trend in stumpage for the entire year. The West side data held up a little better; even though prices dropped after strong prices in the first quarter, West side prices leveled off and maintained relatively strong prices throughout the remainder of the year.

One product that seems to have lost most of its value is pulpwood. Highest pulpwood prices are In the SE, where most harvests have a high percentage of pulpwood-grade material. Naturally, then, bidders have to put a price on pulpwood in order to get a decent bid on a tract. But pulp in the other three regions seems to be a throw-in; bid prices are strictly a function of sawtimber, and pulpwood is not given a value even though harvested. For private landowners looking to sell timber, this is a key point...buyers are looking for quality sawtimber in quantity, and stands with high percentages of pulpwood are not as desirable. Even in the SE, where hardwood pulpwood is at least bringing between $3-$5 a ton, that doesn't add up to a lot of money for a lot of work and scenery change.

The public data from the Bureau of Forestry is a bit misleading on pulpwood prices. For instance, you see averages of $5-$7 a ton in the Western part of the state. But those prices are calculated as a function of a total bid on a public tract; that is, some portion of every bid is allocated to pulpwood, even though the buyer may not have put any value on the pulpwood when the bid was calculated and submitted. So, advice to the private landowner...ignore the pulpwood prices you see listed in the Bureau of Forestry pulpwood prices.

I'm seeing a little more energy on the faces of the foresters I've been dealing with in the last few weeks, so I'm expecting the first quarter data to have a bit of an upward bump like it did in 1Q2022. Foreign log buyers seem to be growing their businesses, so we'll watch next year's stumpage data with optimism. Flip side of the coin...our Pennsylvania sawmills will probably be seeing more competition at higher prices for their raw material, with national housing markets still pretty wobbly to weak.

However, hardwood flooring and furniture markets are forecast to continue strong, especially in foreign markets, through the next few years. So timber prices should at least stay near current levels and then head upward again. We'll see.

Timber Market Report 3rd Quarter
July - September 2022

Dr. Ray's Comments: Pennsylvania hardwood stumpage prices are hanging in there at pretty strong levels, despite a slight softening hinted at in the graphs and tables above. Why do I say that? Well, compare the price trendlines from March to September above with the price of softwood lumber futures.

While our stumpage values in that period have generally dropped about 25%, on average, softwood lumber futures have dropped over $1000 per mbf, from just over $1,400/mbf to just over $400/mbf. That's a drop of about 70% in the same time frame.

Hardwood prices are always a little less volatile that softwood prices, and especially on the speculation on commodity softwood. And stumpage prices are always less volatile than lumber prices, which are more closely related to short-term economic pressures. So it makes sense that our Pennsylvania stumpage remains relatively healthy, price-wise, while other wood products take a beating. Quality will always demand a premium, and Pennsylvania hardwoods are about the best woods available anywhere.

Still, the slow pace of the economy in general has provided a negative pull on our stumpage markets, even in the face of inflationary pressures on costs of harvesting and processing. And as we leave 2022 and head into 2023, we should see the softwood lumber futures rebound in the spring as they generally do, and our stumpage prices will probably firm up again as they normally do.

I'll do a multi-year trend analysis by the end of this year to illustrate why I think our stumpage markets are still relatively healthy. Until then, take care...

Timber Market Report 2nd Quarter
April - June 2022

Dr. Ray's Comments: The second quarter was pretty good in the Pennsylvania forest industry. Although our averages show a price decline of 10-20% in oak and cherry in all regions of the state, prices remain in historically strong territory.

Some of the softening in prices may be attributable to the fact that we had an encouragingly high level of data contributors, which brought in a number of smaller companies with relatively fewer sales at lower prices. In that sense, this quarter's report is actually a better indicator of the entire timber market in Pennsylvania than last quarter's, which had a smaller number of contributors and sales.

In addition, prices are just about in line with the softening of fuel prices over the summer, so the market downturn may be at least in part reflecting a slowing of inflation that seems to be taking place. Let's hope that holds into the fall.

What you can't see in the averages reflected in the graphs and tables above is what I observe while performing data entry on individual sales. I could summarize it this way...great stands are still fetching great prices, and more poor stands are being sold hoping to capitalize on current market conditions. When they all get averaged, much of that information goes out in the wash. We are working on a methodology and reporting tool that will help users like you better see and understand that differentiation the way I see it here in the raw data.

To our data contributors...thanks for helping make this one of the best hardwood timber reports in the nation, and keep those numbers coming in!

To our readers...stay tuned in, changes are coming to the report that will make it more functionally useful for most of you.

Timber Market Report 1st Quarter
January - March 2022

Dr. Ray's Comments:  I said last quarter...

"Next quarter's data should be a real indicator of what 2022 prices will do. If they maintain current price levels, then 2022 should be stronger yet than 2021. But if we see a significant to sharp drop in prices, then the market in general could be on its way to a setback."

I was wrong on the first sentence...we'll have to wait until next quarter to see what the markets are really doing.

Why?

Well, for one thing, the number of timber sales reported this quarter was only half the number of sales reported in the fourth quarter of 2021, and only 3/4 the number of sales in the first quarter of 2021. Secondly, only about half the number of private timberland contributors reported in this quarter. And finally, roughly half the sales reported seem to have been of low-grade stands. Normally only about 20% or less of the stands reported are low-grade. Taken all together, our price data and graphs this month may not be representative of the market in general.

Or it may.

That is, the low number of sales reported may actually be a true representation of a slowdown in the timber market. Several of the survey respondents reporter "no sales" or a single sale with small volume of timber. However, the PA Bureau of Forestry reported just about the same number of sales as the first quarter of 2021. So, it could be a slowdown on private lands and business as usual on public lands.

As for pricing, White Oak seems to be continuing to increase its strong upward movement across the state. Whereas, Black Cherry seems to be on a price pullback in the Northern regions where it is normally the strongest. All other species seem to be maintaining their strong prices.

So, our survey may be telling us that prices look to be holding for a strong market in 2022 because prices stayed strong in a slow quarter. Or, it may be hinting at a slowdown in demand that will result in a softening in prices over the coming months.

Stayed tuned.

2021

Timber Market Report 4th Quarter
October-December 2021

Dr. Ray's Comments: The story for the 4th quarter was primarily the rise in key species in the eastern half of the state. Black cherry prices in the Northeast gained over 20%; in the Southeast, white oak, northern red oak, and black cherry all made similar strong moves. Most other species in the rest of the state stayed relatively stable near the strong prices recorded earlier in 2021.

At least part of the continuing strength in the stumpage market can be attributed to inflation of raw materials, in general, in the country. If you compare the first point on each of the graphs with the last you'll see that with the exception of White Ash, which appears to be on its way out as a major commercial species in Pennsylvania, all species are at least 10% higher in the 4th quarter 2021 than they were in 4th quarter 2020. Assume that 10% to be the inflation factor...any price increase over 10% can be interpreted as a real increase in demand for that species.

Looking at the market that way, we see real demand increases for the top four species in the entire Northern region, while in the Southern region, only White Oak seems to be in truly higher demand.

However, fourth and first quarter prices are traditionally softer than second and third quarter prices, as we see once again demonstrated on the 2021 charts. Next quarter's data should be a real indicator of what 2022 prices will do. If they maintain current price levels, then 2022 should be stronger yet than 2021. But if we see a significant to sharp drop in prices, then the market in general could be on its way to a setback. Housing demand is still strong, with long order files for home builders and component manufacturers, so we shouldn't see that drop in stumpage anytime soon.

Timber Market Report 3rd Quarter
July - September 2021

Dr. Ray's Comments: Pennsylvania's timber stumpage market remains in a bullish trend in all regions, with prices continuing at the previous quarter's high levels. Cherry, red oak, and white oak remain strong in the northern tier; red and white oak are the strongest species in the southen tier. The only significant difference in this quarter's report from last quarter is a recovery in prices in the Northeast to the 1st quarter's high levels. Trendwise, the data is confirming a continued strong market. In fact, some small producers seem to be driven out of the market by the high price levels, as indicated by a number of "no production" and under-capacity production being reported across the state. This is resulting in some timber sellers finding little or no market for their logs in certain localities, especially in the southern tier. "Log availability" concerns allude to high cost and worker shortages in logging, but not to a shortage of available stumpage. Still plenty of wood out there.

Nothing in the bigger economic picture seems to hint at a significant change going forward. Housing starts remain moderate to strong, although weakening slightly; but wood consumption should remain bouyed by strong and increasing remodeling activity. Hardwood imports have cooled slightly from recent highs, with trans-oceanic transportation issues perhaps helping American and Canadian producers. Increasing diesel prices are driving up cost of production through the supply chain, and thereby increase consumer costs, which could and probably is contributing to a slight cooling in wood products markets. But order files remain full for the time, and worker shortages hint that it will take longer than usual to fill them, so prices will probably remain at inflated levels for the time being.

Summary: It's a sellers market for the time being. Barring a national economic crash or more climate change regulation or policy, it should stay that way for a while. High prices are the new normal until supply-chain technology improves to compensate for the shrinking U.S. workforce.

Timber Market Report 2nd Quarter
April - June 2021

Dr. Ray's Comments: The graphs and tables above reflect a cooling of the price of stumpage from the previous quarter in the eastern half of the state. The western half of the state, which had been a cooler market in the first quarter, picked up the slack and shadowed the eastern gains of the first quarter. Red and white oak in the Northeast, which had jumped to record levels, retreated roughly 10-20% but remains at strong price levels. Northeastern hard maple, traditionally the strongest maple market in the state, failed to hold the first-quarter gains and fell back some 50% to pre-spike levels. Oak prices in the western part of the state were mixed but generally strengthening; the real star this quarter was black cherry, with increases of 75% in the NW and 35% in the SW.

So where are we? Generally, looking at the long-term picture, timber prices are normalizing toward their relative historical values. Oaks are strong in the east, and cherry is coming back in the west. Log buyers seem to be getting a clearer handle on real market trends and are buying to meet those trends. And though the general price trends are strong, there are at least three red flags waving on the horizon.

The first red flag is housing trends and related construction lumber prices. Housing starts have slowed, and housing permits have dropped dramatically. In the Northeastern U.S., single-family permits are steady, but multi-family permits are at their lowest level since the first of the year (Source: US Census; 7/26/21). And the price of construction lumber, which was wildly spiking back in April and May, is now in full crash-mode retreat.

The second red flag is the rate of inflation in the country, which has hit levels not seen since 2013. Economists are warning of inflation to come for many years. What this means is that not all the gain in timber prices we're seeing is due to demand, but at least partially due to inflation...which is not a real price gain. Also, if anything should occur to deflate the current bubble of government-subsidized inflation, prices will drop rapidly due to the combination of market cooling and monetary deflation.

The third red flag is the unsettled state of the world and the downside potential that has on export markets. I'll look more closely into this factor next quarter as we see how some of the current unrest plays out.

As you can see, the market is a bit dicey right now. The good news is that Pennsylvania hardwood is relatively stable as a long-term investment and as a raw material to support your hardwood lumber business.

See you next quarter, and feel free to share this report with your friends.

Timber Market Report 1st Quarter
January - March 2021

Dr. Ray's Comments: The graphs and tables above reflect a significant increase in the price of stumpage from the previous quarter. The increase in red and white oak, and hard maple in the Northeast is especially eye-popping and puts those species in that region at record historical price levels.

The rest of the data is a lot more difficult to get a read on. Yes, prices are up, generally. But there is more to the story.

I went back and reviewed the Timber Market Report from 1Q 2005, the last time housing was at record price levels. A close comparison of the current price tables shows:

• Yes, oak and maple are through the roof and at historical highs in the eastern half of the state.
• But, those same species are quite a bit below 2005 levels in the western half of the state, and still about in the same price range they were all of 2020.
• And black cherry is a completely different story; it is half the level of 2005 prices in the northeast, and only one-third its 2005 level in the northwest.

Also obscured by the data is that the number of timber sales reported in Q1 was only about 2/3 the number of the sales in several previous quarters, which is somewhat normal for first quarter data, but still a hint that "special conditions" may be in play right now. Several mill managers have told me that they're holding off on buying timber/logs as long as they can with expectations/hopes that timber prices will come back to them before they run out of logs. And several contributors reported "No Sales" this quarter.

The hesitancy in the mills reflects uncertainty in the hardwood lumber market. In North America, lumber prices turned up strongly in March, and should they continue through the summer, stumpage prices may continue to climb. However, logs are becoming more readily available as more sellers seek buyers for their logs, and we could see the spikes in oak and maple stumpage return to more typical prices this summer.

The export market is somewhat cloudier. While exports are generally strong, the Hardwood Review presents an interesting analysis that suggests overseas customers, particularly the Chinese, are trending toward a lower grade mix to offset rising prices. That could help prices of higher quality lumber ease here in North America, a trend that would help maintain building and remodeling recovery here continue its momentum.

The housing market is highly volatile right now, dropping and then spiking upward every other month. Builder optimism is driving new starts, but it remains to be seen whether the economy will support a new wave of first-time homebuyers. The banks are the wild-card, and the bankers I know seem non-committal right now. Even though less than 20% of mortgage lenders polled last week indicated expectations that rates will go lower, the rates remain soft and continue to drift slowly downward, while lending criteria seem to be tightening.  All of which means that banks want to finance home purchases, but they are looking for "solid" borrowers, while keeping an eye on the Federal Reserve, and on inflation in the economy.

All in all, this summer looks like a nervous balancing act for our Pennsylvania timber industry as they try to meet current lumber demand at log costs that will be supported by the lumber market prices. But it's a great time to sell high quality oak and maple logs, if you have them, and if you can find someone willing to buy them.

2020

Timber Market Report 4th Quarter
October-December 2020

Dr. Ray's Comments: Based on the composite data submitted this quarter, the price trendlines overall remain relatively flat. Without diving deeper into the data, we would conclude that the markets remain soft at roughly the same prices as the third quarter.

However, one interesting fact I noticed while entering the data was that the small sawmills that participate in the survey had definitely increased the prices they were paying, presumably for gatewood, across all species.

Averages (Five independent reports, three different regions of the state).

Red Oak +30% White Oak +47% Mixed Oak +50% Black Cherry +10% White Ash +29% Hard Maple +33% Soft Maple +31%

Yellow Poplar + 17% Misc. Hardwood +10% White Pine +0% Hemlock +13%

These increases come after several quarters of relatively flat prices from these survey participants. While these numbers represent less than ten percent of the data points in the survey, the fact that they all show the same trends tell a story that the smaller mills are either seeing hotter markets for their lumber, especially oak and maple, or that they are having a harder time getting logs...or both.

These trends were confirmed by the larger analysis in the southeast region, as you can see on the Southeast graph where all species trended upwards. However, the larger analysis in the other regions shows no such consistent increases, and in fact the Northwest region larger data set reveals downward trends in all species except for ash, which remained flat.

Under normal economic conditions, we might conclude that the smaller mill price increases are signaling that a general warming of the economy is finally reaching the smaller producers. However, these are not normal economic times.

The flat and negative price trends from the entire data set for the Northeast, Northwest, and Southwest, which have far more lumber production than the Southeast, and 90% or so of the cumulative data, hint that the sawmill price increase is despite the fact that stumpage prices in the state, in general, remain soft.

I've spoken with dozens of private landowners in the last two quarters, all calling to ask the same basic question...why are the bids for their timber still relatively low when they are reading that timber prices in other parts of the country are booming?

I explain to them that the booming timber prices in other parts of the country are primarily for softwood timber, which is in high demand because the huge softwood sawmills are pumping out lumber as fast as possible to supply the hot housing markets in most of the country. In theory, and traditionally, hardwood markets lag behind softwood markets, so we would be expecting our stumpage markets to be turning upward in the near future.

However, the economy we're currently in has prompted many private landowners to consider tapping into their "timber bank" for various reasons, and that has apparently created a very large supply of timber available for bidding, thus keeping prices in most of the state soft.

As I mentioned to a caller just yesterday, who was asking about government impact on the market, the policies practiced from 2009-2016, which had such a negative impact on our hardwood industry are now apparently in the process of being put back into effect. If so, we can assume that any upward momentum in our timber markets created by the improving general economy may well be blunted going forward.

So, timber prices will probably remain soft in the near future, unless some fundamental change in the economy occurs. We'll watch for any signs of that in coming quarters.

Timber Market Report 3rd Quarter
July-September 2020

Dr. Ray's Comments: Prices started moving in a positive direction again in the third quarter in most of the state. Only the Southeast part of the state remained flat. The upward movement seems to be optimism based on the economy in general and softwood increases in particular. Furniture orders are being reported to be on the increase, but factories are responding slowly due to worker shortages. Wood content in furniture has also been trending down, so hardwood prices will move up more slowly than in the past. Sawmills that are reporting volumes are still only running at 60-80% of capacity. Many are complaining that lumber prices are not high enough to justify current increases in log prices. Consulting foresters complain that there still aren't enough bidders for each stand. And I am receiving two to three inquiries a day from landowners wanting information on prices. (Somebody change that Google algorithm, please.) Many questions on two to three year timber harvest contracts, another sign that industry pros are betting on market increases in the near future. Bottom line - supply plentiful, with prices being pushed by upward market anticipation. But economic picture cloudy, to say the least. Let's see what the fourth quarter data tell us.

Timber Market Report 2nd Quarter
April-June 2020

Dr. Ray's Comments: The Pennsylvania Timber Market remains soft and on a real basis, near historically low levels. For all you increasing numbers of folks who are calling in to ask about your timber value...this is not a great time to be selling timber. So hold if you can, things will get better.

(P.S. Really, please don't call or email me. The only way to accurately gauge the value of your timber is to have a professional forester who is familiar with your local, current timber prices cruise your timber and give you an estimate. This can be a timber company forester, a local logger, or a consulting forester. I always recommend you get at least three estimates of the value before making your final decision...and the bigger your tract of timber, the more estimates I would get. It can be costly and time-consuming, but you're talking potentially very large differences in the final value of your harvest. The most unbiased estimate should normally come from a professional consulting forester... find one near you.)

We've already seen a nice run-up in softwood lumber prices due to the surge in COVID-related home remodeling/repair activity. We should see at least a small carry-on run-up in hardwood lumber prices as these projects get to trim-out and finish phases. And of course, hardwood timber prices should follow those lumber prices up.

There may be a fundamental problem in certain key segments - namely, Black Cherry and Hard (Sugar) Maple. Both were significantly impacted by the tariff wars with China recently, as those buyers sought replacement species in other parts of the world. It may be that the cheaper substitutes found for our fine Black Cherry will find consumer acceptance at the mid-level price point, and if so, the zenith of our Black Cherry market may have passed for good. Sugar maple may be replaced not only by cheaper foreign species, but by the growing availability of fine Soft (Red) Maple. Again, if the consumer accepts it, it will stick.

The other species that has crashed is Hemlock, our state tree, This is a natural function of all the hemlock being harvested due to die-off from the hemlock wooly adelgid. Hemlock is a traditionally less-valuable softwood species that has become nearly worthless due to its over-availability of large logs. The long-term prognosis for the species as a commercially valuable timber tree is poor.

Any good news, you ask? I think it may be in the holding prices of our oaks. Not as easy to substitute for as cherry and maple, our oak prices are soft but holding. And consumers in other parts of the world, most significantly in Asia, still like the distinctive look of oak.

On the flip side, buyers of timber can get whatever they want at clearance prices. That may serve to help make our lumber producers more cost-competitive than in the past when they typically have had to deal with log costs that were near the highest in the world. The playing field is more level for them than it has been in a long time. They just have to find buyers for their lumber...and I suspect they will.

Timber Market Report 1st Quarter
January-March 2020

Dr. Ray's Comments: Prices remained soft in the first quarter of 2020. It seems to be a buyer's market, bouncing along the bottom at the minimum price that still allows a little wood to move.  About 25% of survey respondents report no sales/purchases for the quarter. Landowners are still contacting me about prices, so sellers seem to be out there looking for buyers.

Lots of wood, not much demand. Short term outlook remains weak.

2019

Timber Market Report 4th Quarter
October-December 2019

Dr. Ray's Comments: Prices remained soft in the 4th quarter, although prices in the SE region seemed to firm up. Comments from the surveys include:

• "Many payment contingencies to even get a sealed bid...sometimes no bids at all due to tariff caution! (NW)
• "I am afraid the ANF report is not all that optimistic either.  Many factors involved in decreased stumpage. (NW)
• "...the "comments" in the narrative are very negative but I am having little trouble selling timber every week, and at still good prices.  Allowing more contract time and spreading out payments allows buyers to plan ahead, and as a result, we hear little negative feedback. White oak prices are SOARING." (W)

The tariff situation seems to be moving in the favor of US producers, slowly but surely. Home mortgage rates remain low, and home building/remodeling remains strong. It looks like we can expect cautiously increasing prices throughout the remainder of the year.

Timber Market Report 3rd Quarter
July-September 2019

Dr. Ray's Comments: This was a rough quarter for Pennsylvania timber prices in the northern tier of the state. Prices for most species in the north dropped below previous disastrous first quarter prices, with only white ash and hard maple holding their price. The southern tier of the state, however, showed a somewhat surprising recovery from 2nd quarter prices, perhaps bolstered by an increase of reported activity in the south.

Oak and cherry prices were the hardest hit. Without a doubt, political policy in the form of the current tariff war with China has cut demand for these products by around 40-50% overall. This slack in demand was commented on by many of our participating Pennsylvania data suppliers.

Timber Market Report 2nd Quarter
April-June 2019

Dr. Ray's Comments: Nice uptick in activity, especially on Bureau and Game Commission Lands, helped boost prices in the northeastern part of the state back to prices we saw in the 2nd quarter of 2019. However, the rest of the state failed to regain that mojo, and reports from the field are less than inspiring. However, let's see what a few more quarters tells us. Is a rebound matching general economic activity in store, or is there a fundamental problem on the demand side of the equation?

Timber Market Report 1st Quarter
January - March 2019

Dr. Ray's Comments: Prices reflected in this report seem artificially depressed due to a smaller than usual reporting sample and a large percentage of low-quality stands represented. We need to see the remainder of this year's reports to better gauge actual market conditions.

2018

Timber Market Report 4th Quarter
October - December 2018

Dr. Ray's Comments: More moderate weather in the fourth quarter allowed the industry supply chain to regain some momentum. Even though starts dropped significantly in December, housing starts were up overall in 2018 by more than 3.6%.

Stumpage prices in Pennsylvania remained steady and/or rebounded in most areas of the state. Lower value species remained soft, but black cherry jumped strongly in the Northwest quadrant of the state, and oak and cherry rebounded strongly in the Southeast. All other species and areas remained firm, with the exception of the Southwest where the already weak market for all species got weaker.

Although signals are mixed, the economy in general remains solid. Weather has gradually become favorable for logging in most of the state. Housing prices continue to increase in the region, and natural gas and oil production are strong in the country, so log prices should continue to firm up through 2019. Export trends will be a key factor to watch. China's economy is in a cooling cycle and US hardwood exports to China dropped in 2018 from their record 2017 levels. A soon-to-be-announced trade agreement with China should help calm trading concerns and re-ignite quality hardwood lumber trade, driving Pennsylvania log prices upward.

Timber Market Report 2018 3rd Quarter
July - September 2018

Dr. Ray's Comments: Extremely wet weather was the unfortunate story of the third quarter 2018 in Pennsylvania. Timber prices slumped as harvest volumes tailed off; loggers struggled to find suitable sites, and what logs did come in piled up in mill yards. Coupled with the slowdown in housing starts also due to the wet conditions, the entire wood products supply chain slowed to a crawl.

In the southern half of the state, prices for all key species returned to pre-2nd quarter levels. The northern part of the state fared somewhat better; key species struggled to hold near-2nd quarter levels, with the exception of black cherry, which tailed off quite a bit.

With harvest volumes restricted in the third quarter, and the general economy remaining strong, look for timber prices to resume their upward trends in future quarters. If we experience a hard winter, both the forest floor and building sites could firm up to allow activity to resume. Logging and mill activity could ramp up to near-capacity levels as homebuilders resume filling their housing orders. 2019 looks to be a strong year for the wood products industry.

Timber Market Report 2018 2nd Quarter
April-June 2018

Dr. Ray's Comments: Prices for key species moved strongly upwards in the second quarter of 2018. Black cherry moved up strongly in all four regions; red oak trended upward in all but the southwestern part of the state; and white oak moved up strongly in the southeastern section of the state while remaining steady in the rest of the state. Hard maple moved higher, while soft maple held steady. Contributors commented on the impact of new tariffs on foreign export markets; the impact this quarter seems to be increased prices, perhaps to beat the impact of future tariffs.

Timber Market Report 2018 1st Quarter
January - March 2018

Dr. Jacobson's Comments: Prices remained relatively steady during the first quarter of 2018. Wet conditions in the Southeast region resulted in a low number of price reports (2) for this quarter. Contributors commented on weather conditions making it difficult to harvest this winter and concerns about foreign export markets. Penn State Extension is currently investigating the state of log exports from Pennsylvania to identify trends and how they may be influencing prices across the Commonwealth.

2017

Timber Market Report 2017 4th Quarter
October - December 2017

Dr. Jacobson's Comments: Prices increased slightly overall this quarter across all regions. There was a noticeable decrease in black cherry prices for the Northeast region, with prices returning back to previous levels from earlier in 2017. Respondents shared concerns about growing log exports to foreign markets, specifically China. Penn State Extension recently conducted a survey of Pennsylvania forest products firms to help identify current export trends and better understand how these are impacting the market.

Timber Market Report 2017 3rd Quarter
July - September 2017

Dr. Jacobson's Comments: Prices remained relatively steady for the 3rd Quarter of 2017. Noticeable increases in the Northeast and Northwest regions occurred for black cherry. Respondents also shared concerns over increasing log exports impacting prices in Pennsylvania.

Timber Market Report: 2017 2nd Quarter
April - June 2017

Dr. Jacobson's Comments: Prices increased slightly in most regions after a wet and muddy 1st quarter. Black cherry prices in the Northeast and Northwest regions are up for the year and above prices from this time last year. White ash prices in the Southwest region recovered from last quarter, most likely due to a higher number of reported sales.

Timber Market Report: 2017 1st Quarter
January - March 2017

Dr. Jacobson's Comments: Although we had a fairly mild and therefore wet and muddy winter, prices for the 1st quarter of 2017 seem to be stable. There is somewhat a of market interest in darker species as evidenced by slightly higher cherry and red oak prices and higher than normal interest in finding walnut prices. The downshift you see on the graphs is mainly due to less than normal reporting. We rely on you to make the report work, so your responses are important. This summer we plan to assess the report and the mailing list. If you have ideas for improving the reporting process or the report itself please let us know.

2016

Timber Market Report: 2016 4th Quarter
October - December 2016

Dr. Jacobson's Comments: 2016 was one of those years with very little volatility in Pennsylvania stumpage prices - usually we see numerous ups and downs in species averages. The current pattern is a sign of market stability. One notable trend, however, is that Black Cherry prices continue to decrease slightly over time in the Northern tier. We are also hearing about a strong demand for Ash, although no price spikes are shown in the TMR. Hardwood export markets broke records in some sectors in 2016, and forecasts for 2017 indicate another strong year.

Timber Market Report: 2016 3rd Quarter
July - September 2016

Timber Market Report: 2016 2nd Quarter
April - June 2016

Timber Market Report: 2016 1st Quarter
January-March 2016

2015

Timber Market Report: 2015 4th Quarter
October - December 2015

Dr. Jacobson's comments: Prices remain flat for the most part. A big question is whether domestic demand and housing starts will pick up this spring, as exports have fallen off. Consumer spending in the U.S is showing some signs of strength but the our markets still heavily depend on exports. China's economic concerns and strong dollar influence exports. Interestingly, for the last few quarters the Black Cherry prices in NE are higher on average than the NW. I can't read into it too much but maybe signs of limited high quality Cherry availability in NW.

Timber Market Report: 2015 3rd Quarter
July - September 2017

Dr. Jacobson's comments: Prices are flat and there is hardly any sign of movement. Although the market itself seems to be picking up a little, the strong dollar is slowing the ever important export market. Another key factor is the falling lumber prices which trickle back and impact stumpage prices. Ash timber continues to be liquidated as landowners preempt invasion of the Emerald Ash Borer.

Timber Market Report: 2015 2nd Quarter
April - June 2015

Dr. Jacobson's comments: The operative word this quarter is 'flat'. Prices remain flat on average for the major species. Exports have not increased as was forecast but its seems domestic hardwood lumber demand is picking up somewhat. Please note when reading these prices to take into account the number of samples. Some species in some regions have very few observations, probably skewing prices. Lets try and get more people to report. Spread the word and encourage anyone in the business to go online a report their timber sale prices.

Timber Market Report: 2015 1st Quarter

January - March 2015

Dr. Jacobson's comments: Demand for grade hardwood lumber is lower than expected. A key factor is slow exports to international markets, especially China. This is leading to buildup of inventories. Prices however remained steady this quarter.

2014

Timber Market Report: 2014 4th Quarter

October - December 2014

Dr. Jacobson's comments: Prices have remained fairly stable this quarter although markets are robust and cold weather has helped logging activities. Mills are trying to keep their supply balanced with demand. Markets have obviously been helped by lower energy prices but it may take some time to translate into higher stumpage prices.

Timber Market Report: 2014 3rd Quarter

July - September 2014

Dr. Jacobson's comments: The weather has been good this summer and so has harvesting timber, even lower quality material. There is more timber on market and mills are building inventory. Prices are strong and upward trending. Concerns loom about world markets and politics and housing construction has apparently stalled. Nevertheless exports are up, so there is industry optimism in the air.

Timber Market Report: 2014 2nd Quarter

April - June 2014

Dr. Jacobson's comments: Prices for the 2nd quarter 2014 remained steady, albeit grade lumber demand slowed due to a sluggish housing market going into summer. Industrial timber demand remains strong. The only major shift was the drop in cherry prices in SW region. Not sure why. Probably a symptom of the survey. Remember, our survey is based off a relatively small sample of timber sales, so use the prices at your discretion - every forest is different.

Timber Market Report: 2014 1st Quarter

January - March 2014

Dr. Jacobson's comments: Sustained upward price trends are now clear over the last year. In the past few years, it's been a lot of ups and downs with slow market progress. Post-recession, there is now plenty of timber on the market. The question is whether supply build up leads to prices leveling off.

2013

Timber Market Report: 2013 4th Quarter

October - December 2013

Dr. Jacobson's comments: This is the first quarter in a long time since I've seen sustained strong price increases. Decent weather, bulking up yard inventories, and strong export demand were key drivers. The word is that prices will stabilize as we move into 2014.

Timber Market Report: 2013 3rd Quarter

July - September 2013

Dr. Jacobson's comments: Not much overall price movement in 3rd quarter 2013. Prices seem to be on a slow upward trend as activity picks up. This probably reflects growing demand, especially export markets, while supply is limited by sales and logger availability. We are hearing the Ash market is strong.

Timber Market Report: 2013 2nd Quarter

April - June 2013

Dr. Jacobson's comments: One of the interesting aspects of the price survey is when respondents add some comments. I don't get many but its seems in recent quarters quite a few people have mentioned some type of salvage harvest, pest or disease related. In terms of price trends there is no consistent pattern across species or even within a region. The western part of the state had more positive prices increases than the eastern part.

Timber Market Report: 2013 1st Quarter

January - March 2013

Dr. Jacobson's comments: The housing market did very well in the 1st quarter of 2013 but is experiencing a current drop in housing starts. However, the market is looking much better that a year ago. Usually PA stumpage prices lag behind housing prices but there is evidence in this quarters report of some stability, if not increases in the prices of most species. If the current market improves we should see prices begin to creep back up.

2012

Timber Market Report: 2012 4th Quarter

October - December 2012

Dr. Jacobson's comments: Lumber prices are bouncing back as the housing market picks up, but the stumpage and log prices are lagging a little. However, there is positive, albeit small, price increases for most of our species. As lumber demand picks up further expect mills to replenish inventories and expand production. Then prices should trickle down to the stump.

Timber Market Report: 2012 3rd Quarter

July - September 2012

Dr. Jacobson's comments: Not much change since last quarter but if since housing starts and renovations are on the rise we should start to see the market pick up. I am hearing that sales are competitive reflecting mills wanting to start stocking up for increasing demand.