Box office preview: 'Insurgent' to usurp 'Cinderella's' throne

Cinderella injected some life into the box office last weekend, but she’ll have to step out of the ballroom and onto the battlefield as she goes up against a dystopian heroine this week.

After the first film’s success, The Divergent Series: Insurgent is bound to top the box office despite middling reviews thanks to a dedicated fanbase for Veronica Roth’s young adult book series. Following the continuing adventures of Tris, Insurgent’s other big competition opening this week is the Sean Penn-starring action film The Gunman and the faith-focused Do You Believe?

Both of those films are likely not to give either Insurgent or Cinderella a run for their money, but they, along with Run All Night, will vie in a close race to fill out the top five. Here’s how the weekend might play out:

1. Insurgent — $56.5 million

Insurgent should tick up from Divergent’s release, but with low reviews and the recent trend for YA sequels suggests it won’t be by much. Take The Hunger Games, whose sequel Catching Fire only rose by about $6 million on its opening weekend compared to its predecessor. Divergent‘s total box office tripled its opening weekend, but don’t expect a huge bump for Insurgent’s opening weekend.

2. Cinderella — $33 million

Cinerella’s actual opening weekend cume came in slightly below Disney’s last fairytale film, Maleficent, which was also helped by Angelina Jolie’s star power. Expect Cinderella to see a comparable drop and end up hovering in the $33 million range.

3. Do You Believe —$6.5 million

Last year, Divergent opened the same weekend as Plex Films’ surprise success God’s Not Dead. This year’s Insurgent will debut alongside another Plex film, Do You Believe? It’s been a while since a faith-oriented film opened well, and after a few disappointments, the recognizable cast and Plex’s track record may help propel the film to the number 3 spot.

4. The Gunman — $6 million

Sean Penn has never really starred in an action film like this, and the last time he was featured prominently in a film’s promotional campaign was for 2013’s The Secret life of Walter Mitty. He’s among a strong cast that includes Javier Bardem and Idris Elba, and the Taken director’s involvement can’t hurt. But the presence of another similar film and poor reviews will hurt The Gunman’s chances going into the weekend.

5. Run All Night — $5 million

Liam Neeson’s latest geri-action film didn’t make audiences run to theaters in its opening weekend, and if his last non-Taken roles are any indication, Run All Night could see a similar drop to A Walk Among the Tombstones, which fell 67 percent in its second weekend. And considering The Gunman is targeting virtually the same audience, the two films will likely duke it out over the course of the weekend..