Box Office Preview: Will the Jonas Brothers beat Madea?

Jonas Brothers: The 3-D Concert Experience — Photo: Frank Masi

If a 3-D concert film geared toward screaming tween fans doesn’t have an expensive sold-out concert tour preceding it, does it make as loud a sound…at the box office? That’s the question on most prognosticators’ minds today, as they predict how well Jonas Brothers: The 3D Concert Experience will do in theaters this weekend.

Sure, the film comes out a little over a year after Hannah Montana/Miley Cyrus: Best of Both Worlds Concert Tour opened to a staggering $31 million in only 683 theaters. And Jonas Brothers is bowing in almost twice as many 3-D venues. But Jonas lacks the immediacy factor that Hannah had going for her: Her real-life concert tour had sold out in record times with desperate parents willing to mortgage their homes on $2,000 tickets to get their sweet, young things into their idol’s stage show. (Ahh, the good old days!) Plus, Disney added to the frenzy by promising an exclusive one-week show — which they promptly extended for two more months once they got wind of its success. The box office has been going crazy since the beginning of the year, so all these factors may be moot. But my guess is Jonas won’t reach the number Hannah achieved 12 mere months ago.

1. Jonas Brothers: The 3D Concert Experience — $22 million
While most of my sources are claiming this film should only gross in the teens for all the reasons above, I’m pretty sure the power of tween girls is being underestimated. Plus, the tickets cost around $15 for the Digital 3-D experience. Set to bow in 1,271 theaters, expect the Jonas’ packaged innocence to do their parents proud at the box office, even if they fall below Miley’s numbers.

2. Tyler Perry’s Madea Goes to Jail — $18 million
Most of Perry’s movies drop in the 45 percent to 55 percent range on their second weekends. With such a high opening number last time around ($41 mil), expect this weekend’s fall to be on the more severe end of things.

3. Slumdog Millionaire — $12.5 million
Turns out eight Oscars is good for something. Slumdog has performed terrifically all week and this frame will be no exception. With Fox Searchlight adding close to 700 theaters this weekend, the little film that could should stretch its total box office to at least $115 million by Sunday.

4. Coraline — $7 million
This animated gem is going to suffer from the Jonas Bros. Not only are those boys taking their audience of young girls, they are also taking their screens. Focus is losing a bunch of 3-D locales to this weekend’s 800-pound 3-D box office gorilla.

5. Taken — $6.5 million
Who knew Liam Neeson was a box office star? His actioner Taken has performed tremendously, and this weekend it will join the century club after only four weeks in release.

ALSO OPENING WIDE

Street Fighter: The Legend of Chun-Li — $4.5 million
This adaptation of the popular video game has its audience of young males available for the taking. Whether or not it’ll get them is another story. The PG-13 rated film from director Andrzej Bartkowiak (Doom) stars Smallville‘s Kristin Kreuk along with Michael Clarke Duncan, Chris Klein, and Neal McDonough