''The Forgotten'' will top the box office

Julianne Moore hasn’t proven to be a big box office draw, but when moviegoers head to the multiplex this weekend, she’s not likely to be forgotten. Her movie The Forgotten will be playing virtually everywhere (it opens on 3,100 screens), and Columbia has marketed it well as a scary horror/suspense thriller. Plus, those Revlon commercials (”I believe… in love…”) have made Moore ubiquitous. All that could add up to a memorable $16 million opening.

Last week’s champ, Sky Captain and the World of Tomorrow, will fly about half as high this weekend, due to middling word of mouth. A 50 percent drop in altitude would mean a No. 2 ranking and an $8 million gross.

The rest of the chart will see a race for a distant third-place finish. Mr. 3000, whose opening last week didn’t exactly hit it out of the park, will fall about 50 percent, making Bernie Mac Mr. $5 million. The week’s other wide release, Katie Holmes’ First Daughter, will open on nearly 2,300 screens, but it’s unlikely to earn more than $4.8 million, thanks to Fox’s nearly invisible marketing campaign, Holmes’ lackluster box office track record, and the déjà-vu movie premise (echoing Mandy Moore’s Chasing Liberty, also about a presidential daughter. Still, it’ll edge out Wimbledon, which will probably net another $4.5 million.