As good as gold

When it comes to this year’s Oscars, it’s an all-out war. Just look at the top nominees: Gladiators slicing and dicing, martial artists attacking, a law clerk combating a power company, and a government official waging a war on drugs. Oh yeah, then there’s the nastiest skirmish of all: an entire French village versus yummy chocolate treats. At EW, we know that the most pressing fight involves your office Oscar pool, so our annual Academy recon mission examines the battle plans for every combatant — and predicts the winners. We also gain access into the war rooms of three Oscar voters; profile three veteran commanders of editing, composing, and cinematography; expose the tactics of Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon‘s high-flying conflicts; and disclose the secrets of must-have red-carpet war paint. So duck, cover, and read on — when it comes to scoring that office kitty, we’ll help you be all that you can be.

BEST ACTOR

JAVIER BARDEM
FOR HIM The superstar Spaniard spans decades and emotions as gay poet Reinaldo Arenas in Before Night Falls; Roberto Benigni proved it’s possible for an actor in a non-English-speaking role to win this award.
AGAINST HIM Thing is, Benigni’s Life Is Beautiful had six other nominations; Before Night Falls has none.
10-1 ODDS

RUSSELL CROWE
FOR HIM Many voters feel he should have won last year for his strong turn in The Insider; since then he’s delivered another film-anchoring performance in Gladiator — and become a genuine movie star.
AGAINST HIM It seems like he’s received as much attention for his extracurricular affairs as he has for his movies; his bad-boy reputation can’t help.
7-2 ODDS

TOM HANKS
FOR HIM Sure, he’s already taken home this award twice, but there’s no denying the power of the one-man show that is Cast Away; watch the movie’s gripping middle hour again and just try not to relate to him.
AGAINST HIM The deja-vote factor: Will members of the Academy hate themselves for being so predictable?
3-1 ODDS

ED HARRIS
FOR HIM He’s a surprise nominee, yet still a serious contender; the Pollock director-star spilled his guts (and paint) to embody the tortured modern artist.
AGAINST HIM Many people are passionate about the performance but not about the film; the labor-of-love factor didn’t help Robert Duvall’s chances for 1997’s The Apostle.
4-1 ODDS

GEOFFREY RUSH
FOR HIM Already loved by the Academy (with three nominations in five years), he took on a very tough and provocative subject — the Marquis de Sade — for the dark yet artist-friendly Quills, and he’s totally naked, for God’s sake!
AGAINST HIM He’s won in this category before, for a much less divisive film (1996’s Shine).
15-1 ODDS

THE LOWDOWN Though there’s a chance Crowe or Harris could upset, look for Hanks to three-peat.

BEST ACTRESS

JOAN ALLEN
FOR HER After two nominations in the supporting category, this actor’s actress reached the top of the ticket for the first time with The Contender; the showy role’s liberal leanings sit well with industry types.
AGAINST HER The love-it-or-hate-it film’s weak box office take is a bad omen; besides, she’s up against Julia.
10-1 ODDS

JULIETTE BINOCHE
FOR HER A Best Supporting Actress winner for 1996’s The English Patient, she’s the emotional heart of Chocolat; there’s really nothing objectionable here.
AGAINST HER Miramax’s aggressive promo campaign could turn off some voters; she’s already won, and for a much more beloved film; besides, she’s up against Julia.
12-1 ODDS

ELLEN BURSTYN
FOR HER Earning her first nomination in 20 years (and her sixth overall), the Requiem for a Dream star delivers by far the category’s most daring performance…
AGAINST HER …and by far the darkest. We can just picture Oscar voters lunging for their VCR’s eject buttons; besides, she’s up against Julia.
4-1 ODDS

LAURA LINNEY
FOR HER Her subtle, detailed turn as You Can Count on Me‘s harried big sister freed her from character parts and revealed true range; as the only first-time nominee, she’s the freshest face.
AGAINST HER The performance might be too small, and voters are more likely to reward the film with a screenplay trophy; besides, she’s up against Julia.
5-1 ODDS

JULIA ROBERTS
FOR HER This is her year. With her career-highlight turn in Erin Brockovich, the two-time Oscar nominee (and two-time loser) showed why she’s the world’s biggest female star; that SAG win sealed it.
AGAINST HER There has been so much hype about her assured victory that a backlash seems a natural side effect — but don’t bet on it. 1-2 ODDS

THE LOWDOWN All you have to do is flip a coin. Heads, it’s Julia. Tails, it’s Julia.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

JEFF BRIDGES
FOR HIM He’s Hollywood royalty with four nominations and no wins; The Contender couldn’t have been more timely.
AGAINST HIM The performance was unimpeachable, but it doesn’t take a Senate subcommittee to tell you that a lot of folks didn’t love the movie; the pall cast by Gary Oldman’s public problems with the film may have impacted its chances.
9-1 ODDS

WILLEM DAFOE
FOR HIM Remember Martin Landau in Ed Wood? Here’s another astonishing physical transformation by a respected actor in a well-reviewed, cultish movie (Shadow of the Vampire)…
AGAINST HIM …that few have seen. It could be viewed as a one-note performance, and comedy — no matter how dark — doesn’t always stack up well against serious stuff.
15-1 ODDS

BENICIO DEL TORO
FOR HIM His is the only performance that Oscar recognized from the strong Traffic ensemble; he beat out Hanks and Crowe for a Screen Actors Guild award.
AGAINST HIM Pero los miembros de la academia generalmente no se sientan para las peliculas con subtitulos. (Translation: But Academy members often won’t sit through movies with subtitles.)
2-1 ODDS

ALBERT FINNEY
FOR HIM This is his fifth nomination (he’s yet to win), so isn’t he due? Some argue that he helped make Julia Roberts’ Erin Brockovich performance possible.
AGAINST HIM A quick tip, Al: Waffling over whether to attend the ceremony doesn’t exactly do wonders for your chances. Academy voters could think honoring Julia is enough.
3-1 ODDS

JOAQUIN PHOENIX
FOR HIM Were you not amused? A Gladiator tempest could carry him to glory; nice notices for his performance in Quills could help.
AGAINST HIM We forecast more of a steady downpour than an awards hurricane; it’s the first nomination for a young actor who could have more chances in the future; his mannered style still vexes many.
20-1 ODDS

THE LOWDOWN Del Toro’s lawman should subdue Finney’s litigator in the battle of the Soderbergh stars.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

JUDI DENCH
FOR HER A SAG award-winning performance from a well-respected veteran (and she’s British to boot!); she has the powerful Miramax machine behind her.
AGAINST HER Didn’t she just win for Shakespeare in Love? Plus, Chocolat may be the movie that finally pays the price for the backlash against that powerful Miramax machine.
4-1 ODDS

MARCIA GAY HARDEN
FOR HER Already a renowned stage actress, she commanded attention as painter Lee Krasner opposite a fiery Ed Harris; that Pollock got nominated at all indicates the film has some momentum.
AGAINST HER But does it have enough? One has to wonder if a sufficient number of voters saw it to push her over the top.
2-1 ODDS

KATE HUDSON
FOR HER The Almost Famous costar would continue the recent trend toward rewarding ingenue actresses (Marisa Tomei, Mira Sorvino, Angelina Jolie); being the daughter of an Oscar winner (Goldie Hawn) can’t hurt.
AGAINST HER Frances McDormand — nominated in the same category for the same film — could siphon off votes.
3-2 ODDS

FRANCES MCDORMAND
FOR HER She’s a beloved, wonderful actress who gave a lovely little performance as Almost Famous‘ meddling mom. AGAINST HER Emphasis on the “little”; her Fargo win is still fresh enough for Academy voters to think it’s someone else’s turn to go home with the gold; costar Hudson appears to have the momentum.
6-1 ODDS

JULIE WALTERS
FOR HER Actors may applaud her achievement of working so well with a newcomer (and she’s British to boot!); she was nominated almost 20 years ago and lost, so there’s the sentimental factor.
AGAINST HER The October release’s Oscar buzz peaked early; some thought her character, absent from Billy Elliot‘s emotional last scene, lacked satisfying closure.
8-1 ODDS

THE LOWDOWN A tough call, but we’re guessing that Hudson will almost surely win and become really famous.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

ALMOST FAMOUS Cameron Crowe
FOR HIM How did the Academy goof and not nominate Crowe’s charming coming-of-age-in-the-rockin’-’70s nostalgia trip for Best Picture? One set of voters can rebuke another by honoring the Jerry Maguire scribe here.
AGAINST HIM Low nomination total (four) indicates soft support for the film.
3-1 ODDS

BILLY ELLIOT Lee Hall
FOR HIM His uplifting story of an underdog beating the odds appeals strongly to the older Academy contingent.
AGAINST HIM The Flashdance-with-miners’-helmets plot is more fancy footwork than subtle scripting; some could argue that Stephen Daldry’s flashy direction papered over holes in the storytelling.
8-1 ODDS

ERIN BROCKOVICH Susannah Grant
FOR HER With all those meaty Julia Roberts-tells-off-the-world speeches, it’s easy for voters to remember this well-liked film’s acerbic dialogue and verbal energy.
AGAINST HER Members of the Academy may feel that a ballot cast for Roberts as Best Actress is all the support this movie really needs.
5-1 ODDS

GLADIATOR David Franzoni and John Logan and William Nicholson
FOR THEM With 12 Oscar nominations, their neo-traditional epic appears to have momentum.
AGAINST THEM Have these three guys ever met? On-set rewrites and overripe dialogue may destine the script for a thumbs-down; opportunities to reward Gladiator elsewhere are ample.
15-1 ODDS

YOU CAN COUNT ON ME Kenneth Lonergan
FOR HIM His modest sibling seriocomedy swept screenplay honors from critics’ groups and the Writers Guild of America; the film showcased writing in a way its competitors didn’t. Plus, he’s got playwright cred.
AGAINST HIM It’s the lowest grosser here; he’d better hope voters watched the tape. 5-2 ODDS

THE LOWDOWN Almost Famous almost makes it — but you can probably count on Lonergan to walk away happy.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

CHOCOLAT Robert Nelson Jacobs
FOR HIM Who knew cocoa could be whipped so effectively into (according to Miramax) an allegory of community, celebration, acceptance, rebirth, tradition, family, love, tolerance, joy, patience, and forgiveness?
AGAINST HIM Sometimes (according to Freud), a piece of chocolate is just a piece of chocolate.
7-1 ODDS

CROUCHING TIGER, HIDDEN DRAGON Wang Hui Ling and James Schamus and Tsai Kuo Jung
FOR THEM Their elegant structure and finely etched characterization work beautifully, even with subtitles and especially on second viewing.
AGAINST THEM Sorry, but elegant structure and finely etched characterization are not what made this Crouching Tiger roar.
20-1 ODDS

O BROTHER, WHERE ART THOU? Ethan Coen & Joel Coen
FOR THEM A keen ear for Depression-era slang and hyperverbal speechmaking have, surprisingly, turned this into the top-grossing film of the Coens’ careers.
AGAINST THEM It’s not exactly the caliber of their Oscar-winning Fargo script; calling it an “adaptation” (of Homer’s The Odyssey) seems a slight cheat.
10-1 ODDS

TRAFFIC Stephen Gaghan
FOR HIM Given Gaghan’s successful recovery from drug addiction, a win in this category would be the kind of personal triumph Oscar voters love; the complex, ambitious screenplay wins points for degree of difficulty.
AGAINST HIM For some, the film doesn’t equal the 1990 British miniseries on which it’s based.
2-1 ODDS

WONDER BOYS Steve Kloves
FOR HIM A screenwriter’s screenwriter, Kloves streamlined Michael Chabon’s long, bittersweet comic novel into a feature film that perfectly preserved its rueful tone; he just won the prestigious USC Scripter Award for his adaptation.
AGAINST HIM How many Oscar voters read the book–or saw the movie?
5-2 ODDS

THE LOWDOWN In a battle of the issue movies, the drug war will trump writer’s block and the French candy-store shortage.

BEST DIRECTOR

STEPHEN DALDRY FOR HIM The Billy Elliot director’s apparently more liked than Chocolat’s Lasse Hallstrom–the only helmer of a Best Picture nominee to be shut out this year; a theater whiz, Sam Mendes, won last year for his first film, American Beauty. AGAINST HIM His competitors are well-regarded craftsmen whose nominated films have each grossed at least $90 million. 20-1 ODDS

ANG LEE FOR HIM Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon was hands-down the most visually magical movie of the year thanks to Lee’s skill behind the camera; a bellweather win at the Golden Globes may have cemented the deal. AGAINST HIM Those Academy members in Florida may be thrown off by Steven Soderbergh’s name being on the ballot twice. 5-2 ODDS

RIDLEY SCOTT FOR HIM Gladiator is a welcome throwback to the monocle-and-jodhpurs auteur-driven epics that until now seemed as dead as Cecil B. DeMille; he’s been here before and lost (for 1991’s Thelma & Louise), so perhaps he’s due. AGAINST HIM His slick pop sensibility may work with more art-inclined voters; and some folks simply hated Hannibal. 4-1 ODDS

STEVEN SODERBERGH (Erin Brockovich) FOR HIM Pulling that performance out of Julia Roberts and getting that ensemble cast for Traffic (not to mention the upcoming star-studded Ocean’s 11) is proof positive that Soderbergh is the best actor’s director working today. AGAINST HIM If he’s gonna win it, it’s gonna be for the better movie–Traffic. 10-1 ODDS

STEVEN SODERBERGH (Traffic) FOR HIM He’s the first director to be nominated twice in the same year since Michael Curtiz (with Angels With Dirty Faces and Four Daughters) in 1939–so if quantity mattered, Oscar night would be a cakewalk. AGAINST HIM The dreaded “Soderbergh split” might dilute his votes. And, hey, Michael Curtiz didn’t win either. 3-1 ODDS

THE LOWDOWN With his awe-inspiring fantasia, Lee flies high despite Soderbergh’s vigorous one-two punch.

BEST PICTURE

CHOCOLAT
FOR IT Once again Miramax touches all the Oscar-baiting bases: direction by The Cider House Rules’ Lasse Hallstrom, world-class actors, lush presentation, and a gorgeous backdrop for a quaintly twee fable in that Old World sense.
AGAINST IT Hasn’t Miramax already won just by getting this movie nominated? Where’s Hallstrom’s nod?
20-1 ODDS

CROUCHING TIGER, HIDDEN DRAGON
FOR IT As the little subtitled indie that could, this martial-arts adventure is the sentimental favorite; its 10 Oscar nominations and Best Director win at the Golden Globes don’t hurt.
AGAINST IT It seems like a shoo-in for Best Foreign Language Film, so a Best Picture win may be seen as overkill.
5-2 ODDS

ERIN BROCKOVICH
FOR IT They say that rising tides lift all boats, and the fact that Julia Roberts is this year’s only real lock may help this skiff rise too.
AGAINST IT That darn “Soderbergh split” again; as ridiculous as it may sound, the movie opened so long ago, it feels like it should have been in the running for last year’s Oscars.
10-1 ODDS

GLADIATOR
FOR IT Remember Ben-Hur? The Academy swoons for period epics — throw in a win at the Golden Globes and a leading 12 Oscar nominations, and this toga seems all wrapped up.
AGAINST IT With its $187 million domestic gross, Gladiator may strike some voters as nothing more than a summer blockbuster that’s already won.
3-2 ODDS

TRAFFIC
FOR IT Some would say that this is the most important film of the bunch (even policy makers are talking about it), and we all know how Hollywood types like to fancy themselves as topical; it also appears to be the safer Steven Soderbergh pony to bet on.
AGAINST IT There’s not enough sugar to help the heavy medicine go down.
3-1 ODDS

THE LOWDOWN A very close three-way battle, but the big Golden Globe win helps Gladiator emerge victorious.

THE OTHER OSCAR RACES

CINEMATOGRAPHY

Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon — Gladiator — Malena — O Brother, Where Art Thou? — The Patriot

Choose your combat photography: Gladiator’s flash of steel and blood or Crouching Tiger’s fighters sailing through the mist. We’re guessing Tiger burns bright.

VISUAL EFFECTS

Gladiator — Hollow Man — The Perfect Storm

Voters face an interesting showdown between Gladiator, a prestige film in which the F/X weren’t that memorable, and Hollow Man, an all-F/X-all-the-time movie that may be too silly to honor. We suspect they’ll split the difference and award the technical complexity and relative thematic seriousness of The Perfect Storm. (Note: A Gladiator win here could portend a sweep.)

FILM EDITING

Almost Famous — Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon — Gladiator — Traffic — Wonder Boys

Best Editing often goes to the Best Picture–except when something’s too flashy to ignore. That’s how The Matrix took the trophy away from American Beauty last year–and why we bet that even if Gladiator takes the top honor, Tiger will nab this prize.

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Into the Arms of Strangers: Stories of the Kindertransport — Legacy — Long Night’s Journey Into Day — Scottsboro: An American Tragedy — Sound and Fury

Night’s Sundance-winning look at South Africa’s apartheid aftermath should be the front-runner, but Strangers is about a mission to save children from the Holocaust. Need we say more?

DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT

Big Mama — Curtain Call — Dolphins — The Man on Lincoln’s Nose — On Tiptoe: Gentle Steps to Freedom

Odds are rank narcissism will rule: Curtain Call is about performers in the Actors’ Fund old-age home.

LIVE-ACTION SHORT FILM

By Courier — One Day Crossing — Quiero Ser (I Want to Be…) — Seraglio — A Soccer Story (Una Historia de Futebol)

Courier (directed by actor Peter Riegert) and Soccer (about superstar Pele) have the biggest names, and Crossing deals with the Holocaust, but we bet Quiero Ser’s heart-tugging orphan tale will trump its competition.

ANIMATED SHORT FILM

Father and Daughter — The Periwig-Maker — Rejected

With the dual star power of narrator Kenneth Branagh and Robinson Crusoe author Daniel Defoe, The Periwig-Maker feels like a winner.

FOREIGN-LANGUAGE FILM

Amores Perros, Mexico — Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon, Taiwan — Divided We Fall, Czech Republic — Everybody Famous!, Belgium — The Taste of Others, France

Hmmm, that deep look at human nature, Amores Perros? Or the World War II drama Divided We Fall? So hard to choose. What the heck, we’ll go with that obscure Taiwanese film, Crouching Tiger, Hidden Whatever.

SOUND Cast Away — Gladiator — The Patriot — The Perfect Storm — U-571

SOUND EDITING Space Cowboys — U-571

Best Sound is awarded to the cumulative quality of such things as score, dialogue, and visual F/X, while Best Sound Editing applies to eardrum-piercing cues like rocket launches and submarine dives. Sound is a toughie, what with Cast Away’s lapping waves and falling coconuts and The Perfect Storm’s maritime wrath. But we think this award will go to Gladiator’s Sturm und Clang. As for sound editing, where else can you beat 50-50 odds? Voters may notice that U-571 is up for both awards and give it the nod.

ORIGINAL SCORE

Chocolat — Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon — Gladiator — Malena — The Patriot

Crouching Tiger composer Tan Dun’s competitors boast 45 prior scoring noms combined, but this Oscar rookie’s subtle work, punctuated by Yo-Yo Ma’s cello solos, should best the Gladiator score.

COSTUME DESIGN

Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon — Dr. Seuss’ How the Grinch Stole Christmas — Gladiator — 102 Dalmatians — Quills

Again, it comes down to Gladiator and Crouching Tiger. Given the Academy’s reception to Asian-themed films in this category (past winners include Ran and The Last Emperor), we give the edge to Tim Yip’s Tiger tails, if only because they’re less obscured by blood than Gladiator’s garb.

ART DIRECTION

Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon — Dr. Seuss’ How the Grinch Stole Christmas — Gladiator — Quills — Vatel

In this corner: 19th-century China, 17th- and 19th-century France, and 2nd-century Rome. In that corner: Whoville. In a battle of sumptuous period re-creations and fantasyland, we’ll assume that the powdered wigs of Quills and Vatel will cancel each other out, giving victory to the epic (if occasionally digital) splendor of Gladiator.

MAKEUP

The Cell — Dr. Seuss’ How the Grinch Stole Christmas — Shadow of the Vampire

In Passenger 57, Wesley Snipes famously declared, “Always bet on black.” When it comes to Best Makeup our mantra is: “Always bet on five-time winner Rick Baker.” So go with Grinch.

ORIGINAL SONG

“A Fool in Love,” music and lyrics by Randy Newman, Meet the Parents — “I’ve Seen It All,” music by Bjork, lyrics by Lars von Trier and Sjon Sigurdsson, Dancer in the Dark — “A Love Before Time,” music by Jorge Calandrelli and Tan Dun, lyrics by James Schamus, Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon — “My Funny Friend and Me,” music by Sting and David Hartley, lyrics by Sting, The Emperor’s New Groove — “Things Have Changed,” music and lyrics by Bob Dylan, Wonder Boys

Newman’s a perennial loser, so this race should come down to the Icelandic elf and America’s unofficial poet laureate. Judging from the standing O that Dylan got at the Globes, we think the Oscar will be blowin’ in the wind.