Iran has spent decades building up its influence in the Levant as part of its deterrence posture against Israel (and the US). The war in Gaza is now pushing the longstanding Israeli-Iranian conflict out into the open – and Lebanon and Syria are potential flashpoints for further escalation
China is strengthening its ties to the Gulf in areas well beyond the energy sector. The EU clearly has stakes in the region, but it should not try to directly counter China’s influence. It should instead build its own Gulf partnerships
Saudi Arabia has become a middle power with outsize influence on global issues. To protect their interests, Europeans need a new approach to working with Riyadh which recognises the kingdom’s priorities
The cycle of escalation in the Middle East since 7 October means Iraq has once again found itself a staging ground for Iranian-US conflict. But the relationship between Iraq and Iran is complex and multifaceted – and Europeans can help Iraq build its autonomy
The Maghreb policies of the four most influential EU member states are diverging – but this fragmentation hinders the EU’s long-term interests in the region
Europeans need to stop handing control of their borders to southern Mediterranean states. Instead, they should pursue measures that tie the short-term imperative to reduce irregular migration to longer-term strategies that lessen the need for people to migrate in the first place
Aslı Aydıntaşbaş, Julien Barnes-Dacey, Susi Dennison, Marie Dumoulin, Frédéric Grare, Mark Leonard, Theodore Murphy, José Ignacio Torreblanca
Policy Brief
Middle powers are shaping a fragmented world for which Europe is ill prepared. To protect its interests and values, the EU needs a foreign policy strategy that emphasises its wide range of interdependencies
Europeans should leverage their relationships with the Palestinian Authority to revive Palestinian institutions and reverse the PA’s slide towards authoritarianism
The war in Ukraine has led to unprecedented levels of cooperation between Russia and Iran. This new relationship poses a significant threat to European countries, whose governments should seek to mitigate the potential damage
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