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Model Estimates of Global and Regional Climate Changes in the Holocene

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Abstract

On the basis of simulations using a global climate model, the global and regional climate changes in the Holocene are estimated. According to our results, the average contemporary level of global near-surface temperature in recent decades exceeded the respective values during the last 10 kyr, including the period of the Holocene optimum (Middle Holocene, about 6 kyr B.P.). However, modern temperature regimes in particular regions (e.g., Europe) may be below the maximum warming level of the Middle Holocene. Global and regional climate changes and variations in the carbon cycle characteristics over the last century (based on model calculations, with the anthropogenic effect being taken into account) considerably differ from the variations in the preceding centuries and millennia, when natural impacts on the climate system played the key role.

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Funding

This work was conducted within the framework of the Russian Foundation for Basic Research, projects nos. 17–05–01097, 17–29–05098, 18–05–00087, 18–05–60111, and 18–45–160006, using the results obtained within the framework of the research program of the Russian Academy of Sciences (“Climate Changes: Causes, Risks, Consequences, Problems of Adaptation, and Regulation”). Comparative analysis of climatic regimes during the Holocene optimum and at present was supported by the Russian Science Foundation, project no. 19–17–00240.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences, 119017, Moscow, Russia

    I. I. Mokhov & A. V. Eliseev

  2. Lomonosov Moscow State University, 119991, Moscow, Russia

    I. I. Mokhov & A. V. Eliseev

  3. Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology, 141701, Dolgoprudnyi, Moscow oblast, Russia

    I. I. Mokhov

  4. Kazan (Volga Region) Federal University, 420008, Kazan, Russia

    A. V. Eliseev & V. V. Guryanov

Authors
  1. I. I. Mokhov
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  2. A. V. Eliseev
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  3. V. V. Guryanov
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to A. V. Eliseev.

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Translated by N. Astafiev

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Mokhov, I.I., Eliseev, A.V. & Guryanov, V.V. Model Estimates of Global and Regional Climate Changes in the Holocene. Dokl. Earth Sc. 490, 23–27 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1134/S1028334X20010067

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1134/S1028334X20010067

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