The cosmic microwave background (CMB) temperature anisotropies exhibit a large-scale dipolar power asymmetry. To determine whether this is due to a real, physical modulation or is simply a large statistical fluctuation requires the measurement of new modes. Here we forecast how well CMB polarization data from Planck and future experiments will be able to confirm or constrain physical models for modulation. Fitting several such models to the Planck temperature data allows us to provide predictions for polarization asymmetry. While for some models and parameters Planck polarization will decrease error bars on the modulation amplitude by only a small percentage, we show, importantly, that cosmic-variance-limited (and in some cases even Planck) polarization data can decrease the errors by considerably better than the expectation of $\sqrt{2}$ based on simple $\ell$-space arguments. We project that if the primordial fluctuations are truly modulated (with parameters as indicated by Planck temperature data) then Planck will be able to make a $2\sigma$ detection of the modulation model with 20%–75% probability, increasing to 45%–99% when cosmic-variance-limited polarization is considered. We stress that these results are quite model dependent. Cosmic variance in temperature is important: combining statistically isotropic polarization with temperature data will spuriously increase the significance of the temperature signal with 30% probability for Planck.

• Received 11 April 2017

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevD.96.123522