The Red Envelope: ‘Marriage Story’ Might Already Have One Academy Award In The Bag

Welcome to the Red Envelope, a weekly series focused on Netflix’s forthcoming domination of the 92nd Academy Awards.

Here’s a fun thought exercise for awards watchers and amateur prognosticators: try to guess the number of Oscar nominations Netflix is likely to land on Jan. 13, 2020. Here’s a suggestion: go higher. After crashing through awards season in a major way earlier this year with 15 total Oscar nominations, including three wins for Alfonso Cuarón’s Roma, it is conceivable the streaming service could double that number next year. With a star-studded slate that includes all manner of awards contenders, including possible best picture front-runner The Irishman, Netflix is poised to dominate the Oscars in a way that recalls the heydays of Miramax and Fox Searchlight.

That’s great news for not just Ted Sarandos, but Netflix subscribers as well. For too long, awards season has been marked by exclusivity — prestigious film festivals most regular folks can’t attend, limited releases in major markets, select screenings for the cultural elite in New York and Los Angeles, and a general insider’s vibe to the overall conversation. Netflix has used all of those pillars to launch its films in 2019, but with a twist at the end: millions of people are able to access its contenders right now without having to leave the house or worry about whether the latest splashy Film Twitter obsession will arrive at a theater nearby.

That’s why we’re here: every week between now and when the Oscar nominations are announced, Decider will investigate a Netflix awards contender and definitively establish its awards bona fides. Who’s watching? The Red Envelope.

First up: Noah Baumbach’s Marriage Story, out on Netflix right now.

A BRIEF SYNOPSIS: What really happens when a marriage falls apart? Noah Baumbach has personal experience on that front — his high-profile split from Jennifer Jason Leigh is seemingly the backbone for this piece of auto-fiction, despite his protestations to the contrary — and he pours it into Marriage Story. Adam Driver stars as Charlie, a writer who loves New York; Scarlett Johansson plays Nicole, an actress who has roots in Los Angeles; and Laura Dern, Alan Alda, and Ray Liotta lend support to the proceedings as attorneys for each party with varying degrees of bedside manner. Marriage Story is perhaps Baumbach’s best film not named Frances Ha. It blends his pre-Gerwig bitterness and post-Gerwig open-heartedness into something truly tragicomic — a heartbreaking but hopeful film about relationships that features a screaming match as explosive as the end of Avengers: Endgame and Driver performing “Being Alive” from Stephen Sondheim’s Company.

HOW MANY OSCAR NOMINATIONS WILL MARRIAGE STORY GET?

THE LOCKS: For a filmmaker with the reputation and filmography of Baumbach, isn’t it a bit surprising that he’s only scored one Oscar nomination in his career thus far? That came in the best original screenplay category for 2006’s The Squid and the Whale, the director’s previous attempt and marrying autobiography and fiction — and Marriage Story seems all but assured of landing Baumbach in a similar spot next year.

Speaking of locks, say hello to the Marriage Story cast. Driver has reached “the best actor of his generation” status and Marriage Story is the culmination of all his talents. In any other year, he would be favored to win in a blowout, a la Daniel Day-Lewis for Lincoln. But the best actor race usually favors showy transformation over nuanced realism — see recent history winners such as Eddie Redmayne, Gary Oldman, and Rami Malek — which puts Joaquin Phoenix’s Joker performance at the pole position for a win.

Fortunately, Dern doesn’t have as much competition — not even from Hustlers‘ Jennifer Lopez. The meme queen has enjoyed a remarkable run of success over the last three years and an Oscar win in the supporting actress category feels like a foregone conclusion.

As for Johansson, despite turning in fine work, it’s arguable that Marriage Story isn’t her film — Charlie really does pull focus — and the actress’ frequent offscreen bouts of foot-in-mouth disease (by which we mean her comments on Woody Allen) make it feel like her ceiling is as a nominee rather than a winner.

Finally, the biggest prize of all could be within reach as well: Marriage Story seems all but assured of a best picture nomination and, once that happens, it’ll be easy to see a narrative form around it as the “actors’ choice.” (The acting branch makes up the largest voting bloc in the Academy, which, in theory, gives actors the greatest amount of voting power.)

THE POSSIBILITIES: While Baumbach is likely to land a nomination for his screenwriting skills, will his directorial prowess be overlooked? The best director category is comically loaded: Martin Scorsese, Quentin Tarantino, Bong Joon Ho, Sam Mendes, Taika Waititi, Clint Eastwood, and Baumbach’s own partner, Greta Gerwig, all feel like strong contenders. Baumbach could easily miss the cut. And despite turning in lovely work at different pitches, both Alda and Liotta are likely on the outside as well because of their lack of screentime. A more positive outlook could befall composer Randy Newman, however, who reunited with Baumbach here after his work on The Meyerowitz Stories (New and Selected). Newman is a 20-time Oscar nominee who finally won his first award thanks to 2011’s Toy Story 3 and his score for Marriage Story just completely rules. Similarly, Baumbach’s longtime editor, Jennifer Lame, should procure her first nod for the seamless way she cuts between perspectives.

FEARLESS FORECAST: 7 nominations (Best Picture, Best Actor for Driver, Best Actress for Johansson, Best Supporting Actress for Dern, Best Original Screenplay for Baumbach, Best Score for Newman, Best Editing for Lame) and two wins (Dern, Baumbach for Best Original Screenplay).

Christopher Rosen is a writer and editor who lives in Maplewood, New Jersey and still thinks Lady Bird should have won best picture. Follow him on Twitter: @chrisjrosen

Stream Marriage Story on Netflix