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On Thursday, Amazon Studios told us that their superhero series The Boys was a hit. How big of a hit? Quoting their press release:
“The Boys have surpassed our predictions for viewing in its first two weeks, and has become one of our most watched Amazon Original series. This creates great momentum and excitement for us as we get ready for season two.”—Jennifer Salke, Head of Amazon Studios.
It’s not just that we don’t know how many viewers that means, we don’t even know what “one of” means. Is it the Top 5? Top 10?
I’ve taken to calling these “datecdotes.” These selective leaks mainly serve to amplify a streamer’s supposed success when journalists trumpet them without context. Like me right now. Except that I don’t take anyone at their word. So Amazon you want to tell me that The Boys is one of your biggest shows? Fine, I’ll try to see what that means.
How 'The Boys' Stacks Up to Other Amazon TV Series
Amazon has been much less revealing even of these selective datecdotes than Netflix. While Netflix has taken to teasing us that 80 million people watched one of their movies, Amazon continues to cling to generalities. Fortunately for us, between measurement services like Nielsen and intrepid journalists, we’ve found out some things. Here’s my rough survey of all the leaks, intentional or otherwise, about Prime Video over the years:
- According to Symphony Analytics, about 1.4 million viewers watched Transparent in 2015/2016.
- After its 2016 premiere, The Grand Tour became Amazon’s most watched series globally, beating The Man in the High Castle.
- In 2017, Amazon revealed its top series were The Grand Tour, Sneaky Pete, The Man in the High Castle and The Tick.
- In 2018 Reuters revealed that 8 million people watched The Man in the High Castle.
- According to Nielsen, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel had about 1.9 million viewers of its first 7 days.
Now, The Boys has made that list. But where specifically? We don’t know, so we need a different data source.
What does Google Trends Data Say?
Since Amazon won’t tell us specifics, we have to triangulate with other sources. I like to use Google Trends data, especially to compare the streamers to each other. Let’s start with just asking, “Does Google Trends say The Boys is popular for Amazon?” Here’s a sampling of five Amazon series in the United States over the last five years:
Hold up, I can hear the UK folks screaming: Top Gear The Grand Tour is Amazon’s most popular show. Here’s the worldwide look:
Okay, so tentatively The Boys could be one of Amazon’s biggest series. The one risk with this approach is that “The Boys” as a search term is fairly generic—that’s also a nickname for the Cowboys football team—but that spike when the series premiered this July isn’t accidental. (I can’t explain the spike last August.) I played with different search terms and my gut would say The Boys is probably about as popular as The Grand Tour and Jack Ryan, but bigger than their other series.
That’s just Amazon compared to itself. You don’t win the streaming wars by just being good on your own site. How do these shows compare to other series? Here’s The Boys compared to Game of Thrones, Stranger Things, Good Omens and The Handmaid’s Tale:
The good news: The Boys peaked bigger than The Handmaid’s Tale. The bad news? Amazon doesn’t have their “Game of Thrones” yet.
Any Other Data Points?
For big superhero series, I don’t mind using IMDb to see if something is popular. Here’s a scatter plot of some Amazon series and some comp series for The Boys. However, when I use IMDb, I like to weigh the volume of ratings against the average, which I did here:
Again, not bad! Already, this series has more ratings than some of Amazon’s most hyped series and it will likely catch The Man in the High Castle and Jack Ryan soon, while holding onto a 9.0 IMDb. Still, like Google Trends, it will need to keep growing to catch Netflix or HBO’s biggest series.
Buyer Beware: The Reason Amazon *Could* Cancel 'The Boys' After Three Seasons
The biggest worry for The Boys fans should be this fact: The Boys is a Sony co-production.
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Why does that matter? Because earlier this year Amazon cancelled another Sony show, The Tick. Amazon has much less upside in co-productions than if they owned the rights outright. As soon as ratings slip, they often get cancelled. Many of Netflix’s most storied and bemoaned cancelations (Marvel series, One Day at a Time, Tuca & Bertie) were co-productions or licensed series. Same with Amazon with Good Girls Revolt.
That said, The Tick was likely never as popular as The Boys. (See the above ratings.) Add it up and my tentative conclusion is that The Boys is indeed one of Amazon’s biggest hits, but they still need to grow globally to hang with the other heavyweights. Plus, as a co-production, it needs to keep growing or it risks being cancelled.
The Entertainment Strategy Guy writes under this pseudonym at his eponymous website. A former exec at a streaming company, he prefers writing to sending emails/attending meetings, so he launched his own website. You can follow him on Twitter or Linked-In for regular thoughts and analysis on the business, strategy and economics of the media and entertainment industry.
