Are Netflix’s Comedies Dead in the Water at the Emmys This Year?

Just four short years ago, Netflix appeared to have the Primetime Emmy equation fully cracked. House of Cards had enjoyed a strong debut and set up camp in the Outstanding Drama Series category, and while it didn’t win, it was the foothold in the category that Netflix was hoping for out of its first big original series. In 2014, Orange Is the New Black established itself in the Outstanding Comedy Series category, getting a big handful of nominations, and looking like the next big thing that was going to unseat Modern Family from the top category. And while Netflix’s drama fortunes have only expanded in recent years — three Outstanding Drama nominees last year, for The Crown, Stranger Things, and House of Cards — the comedies have been a tougher road.

The backlash hit Orange Is the New Black soon after those 2014 nominations, Modern Family held on for one more year, and the TV Academy ruled Orange Is the New Black had to compete as a drama, leaving Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt and Master of None to hold up Netflix’s Emmy fortunes. Two great shows, to be sure, but with Master of None taking the past year off and Kimmy having left its buzziest days behind them, it’s unclear what — if any — show will be the Netflix standard bearer in Outstanding Comedy this year. Weighing things like relative popularity, critical acclaim, and past Emmy success, it seems like these are the only six comedies that stand a decent shot:*

Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt
Grace & Frankie
One Day at a Time
Santa Clarita Diet
Dear White People
GLOW

*American Vandal is competing in the Outstanding Limited Series category

From the above list, Santa Clarita Diet is only there as a formality; it would be a huge shock to see it get any major nominations after being fully ignored last year. It’s too bad, because it’s a fun, quirky show, but those are the Emmys for you. Dear White People and One Day at a Time were also infuriatingly shut out for their critically acclaimed first seasons, but there’s a bit more reason to hope for them this year; both had sophomore seasons that saw good shows get even better, and both would be deeply necessary shows about black and brown people at a time when diverse shows need support. Grace & Frankie has been a reliable presence in the Best Actress category since it debuted, but never anywhere else. Kimmy feels like a show people are forgetting about, and they only released six episodes this year (though they’re six really good episodes, so a fourth straight nomination would be well deserved). The best shot for Netflix in the Outstanding Comedy category just might be GLOW, a show whose first-season accomplishments and second-season enthusiasms all appear to be cresting at exactly the right time.

Let’s break it down, category by category

OUTSTANDING COMEDY SERIES

Last Year’s Nominees (Eligible):
Atlanta (FX)
Black-ish (ABC)
Modern Family (ABC)
Silicon Valley (HBO)
Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt (Netflix)

I’d be shocked if Atlanta and Black-ish missed again, and while it may seem like Modern Family has been off the air for several years, tell that to an Emmy voter. It’s on an eight-year streak of nominations; do you want to bet against that? SIlicon Valley may have had its quietest season this year, but they’re the veteran HBO series in the race. Kimmy: see above.

Not Eligible:
Veep (HBO)
Master of None (Netflix)

Veep didn’t air new episodes this year, which means there’s going to be a lot of room for new winners this year. Barring a weird Modern Family resurgence, we’re looking at a first-time winner in the top category.

Best Netflix Insurgents:
GLOW
Dear White People

GLOW seems more likely at the moment, but Dear White People has a strong claim at having delivered the best season for a comedy all year. Either one would be hugely deserving.

Other Likelies:
The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Will & Grace
Barry
Young Sheldon
Curb Your Enthusiasm

With at least two open slots, and two big-time Emmy favorites returning, expect things to get wild. Mrs. Maisel was the big new show from the streaming platforms this year, and despite the Emmys’ steadfast ignoring of Amy Sherman-Palladino’s Gilmore Girls, this one seems right up their alley. Barry got hugely strong reviews, and with Veep out of the running, HBO may see it as a stronger horse than Silicon Valley, so the industry push has been strong. But then there’s Curb Your Enthusiasm, a show that, with the exception of its first season, has never missed an Emmy nomination in Outstanding Comedy. The same is almost true of Will & Grace, which didn’t get nominated for its first or eighth seasons, but their revived season 9 was buzzy enough that it could easily slip back in.

Predictions: Atlanta; Barry; Black-ish; Curb Your Enthusiasm; The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel; Modern Family; Will & Grace

OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTOR IN A COMEDY

Last Year’s Nominees (Eligible):
Donald Glover – Atlanta
Anthony Anderson – Black-ish
Zach Galifianakis – Baskets
William H. Macy – Shameless

Death, taxes, and William H. Macy getting nominated for Shameless. The only constants in life.

Not Eligible:
Aziz Ansari – Master of None
Jeffrey Tambor – Transparent

While Transparent did air new episodes during the June 2017 – May 2018 eligibility period, Amazon unsurprisingly didn’t submit Tambor for Emmy consideration after allegations of sexual harassment led to his unceremonious exit from the show.

Best Netflix Insurgents:
Timothy Olyphant – Santa Clarita Diet

I love him so very much, but … not happening.

Other Likelies:
Eric McCormack – Will & Grace
Bill Hader – Barry
Ted Danson – The Good Place
Larry David – Curb Your Enthusiasm
John Goodman – Roseanne

One of the big Emmy questions will be whether Roseanne Barr’s co-stars still have a shot at Emmys in the wake of her scandal. Back in the day, John Goodman was a 7-time nominee for Roseanne (he’s tied with Matt LeBlanc and Hal Linden for most nominations in this category without a win). One of the actors Goodman lost to back then was Ted Danson for Cheers. It’s still so surprising that an Emmy fave like Danson (he’s a 15-time nominee and 2 time winner across all categories) got snubbed last year. But you get the sense that The Good Place snuck up on a lot of people, and if Emmy voters caught on late, they might make up for last year’s mistakes.

Predictions: Anthony Anderson; Larry David; Ted Danson; Donald Glover; Zach Galifianakis; William H. Macy

OUTSTANDING LEAD ACTRESS IN A COMEDY

Last Year’s Nominees (Eligible):
Pamela Adlon – Better Things
Jane Fonda – Grace and Frankie
Allison Janney – Mom
Ellie Kemper – Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt
Tracee Ellis Ross – Black-ish
Lily Tomlin – Grace and Frankie

Not Eligible:
Julia Louis-Dreyfus – Veep

The queen took a year off, so for the first time in seven years, there will be a new champ in this category. And while betting against Allison Janney at an award show is never wise, this could be Tracee Ellis Ross’s Emmy to lose, especially considering Black-ish‘s turn towards divorce-y drama this season likely gives her a lot of good submission material. Meanwhile, none of the three Netflix ladies feel particularly buzzy this year and could be vulnerable to insurgencies.

Best Netflix Insurgents:
Justina Machado – One Day at a Time
Logan Browning – Dear White People
Alison Brie – GLOW

The racial optics on this aren’t great, but one expects that Golden Globe nominee Alison Brie has the leg up on her fellow Netflix ladies in this category. All three are hugely deserving of placement.

Other Likelies:
Rachel Brosnahan – The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Debra Messing – Will & Grace

Predictions: Pamela Adlon; Alison Brie; Rachel Brosnahan; Allison Janney; Debra Messing; Tracee Ellis Ross

OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A COMEDY

Last Year’s Nominees (Eligible):
Alec Baldwin – Saturday Night Live
Louie Anderson – Baskets
Tituss Burgess – Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt
Ty Burrell – Modern Family

Not Eligible:
Tony Hale – Veep
Matt Walsh – Veep

Are we still in love with Saturday Night Live‘s political stuff? That was the wave that crested last year and brought Alex Baldwin another Emmy statue for his pucker-faced Donald Trump impersonation. Was that a one-time novelty for the Emmys or would they do it again? With the Veep boys ineligible, it’s tough to say who Baldwin’s top competition would be. If the Emmys didn’t reward Tituss Burgess for his Lemonade year on Kimmy Schmidt, it’s easy to fear that they never will. It’s worth noting that both Anderson and Burrell are former champs in this category.

Best Netflix Insurgents:
DeRon Horton – Dear White People
Marc Maron – GLOW

Maron’s guy-amid-the-girls performance on GLOW seems like exactly the kind the Emmys like to spotlight, so keep an eye out for that one.

Other Likelies:
Sean Hayes – Will & Grace
Tony Shalhoub – The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Brian Tyree Henry – Atlanta
Henry Winkler – Barry
Kumail Nanjiani – Silicon Valley

Two big-time Emmy faves are back in the fray this year. Between the two of them, Sean Hayes and Tony Shalhoub have 16 career Emmy nominations and five wins. Throw in Henry Winkler’s six career nominations as well! Some expected Kumail Nanjiani to ride his Oscar-nominated movie success to a higher Emmy profile for Silicon Valley (kind of like how Zach Braff leveled up on Scrubs after Garden State was a hit), but this Silicon Valley season was just so quiet. Meanwhile, the Emmys have one year to make it up to Brian Tyree Henry for last year’s unforgivable snub.

Predictions: Louie Anderson; Alec Baldwin; Tituss Burgess; Sean Hayes; Brian Tyree Henry; Tony Shalhoub

OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A COMEDY

Last Year’s Nominees (Eligible):
Kate McKinnon – Saturday Night Live
Leslie Jones – Saturday Night Live
Judith Light – Transparent

Not Eligible:
Vanessa Bayer – Saturday Night Live
Anna Chlumsky – Veep
Kathryn Hahn – Transparent

This is the category with the most turnover from last year, and thus with the most opportunities for new blood. Even last year’s nominees who are still eligible have big question marks. Will Judith Light be the last nominee standing, or are the Emmys just done with Transparent altogether. Similarly, if the SNL fervor has cooled, does Leslie Jones still get nominated on reputation alone, given that she didn’t have all that many memorable moments this season.

Best Netflix Insurgents:
Rita Moreno – One Day at a Time
Betty Gilpin – GLOW
Jane Krakowski – Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt
Ashley Blaine Featherston – Dear White People

Here’s Netflix’s best shot at a multiple-nominee category. Of all the GLOW cast members, Betty Gilpin’s awards buzz has been the strongest, and rightly so. Meanwhile, Kimmy Schmidt finally remembered how to write Jacqueline into the other characters’ storylines again and — no surprise — she’s sizzling in the new episodes. We may never know what Emmy voters were thinking last year when they snubbed Rita Moreno, but now’s a good time to make up for it.

Other Likelies:
Megan Mullally Will & Grace
Alex Borstein – The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Laurie Metcalf – Roseanne
Jessica Walter – Arrested Development
D’Arcy Carden – The Good Place
Zazie Beetz – Atlanta

You could field a superior Emmy category just with the above-listed women. Lots of intriguing questions in this group. Laurie Metcalf has been an awards magnet in the past people years at the Oscars and Tonys. Will the Emmys — who remain Metcalf’s biggest awards suitor, to the tune of 10 career nominations and 3 wins — let her escape the sinking Roseanne rowboat with another nod? Meanwhile, would Emmy voters rally around Jessica Walter after that harrowing Times interview. Megan Mullally was a two-time winner for playing Karen Walker on Will & Grace. The show never seemed to figure out what to do with her in its return season, but Emmy voters are often swayed by reputation alone. Meanwhile, if voters discovered The Good Place late, like I suspect they might have, it’s hard to imagine D’Arcy Carden’s Janet wasn’t a standout.

Predictions: Betty Gilpin; Leslie Jones; Laurie Metcalf; Rita Moreno; Megan Mullally; Kate McKinnon

Stream GLOW on Netflix

Stream Dear White People on Netflix

Stream One Day at a Time on Netflix

Stream Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt on Netflix