Oscar Grouch: How Did ‘Spotlight’ And Mark Rylance Pull Off The Two Biggest Oscar Upsets?

Last night’s Academy Awards was one of the most unpredictable in recent memory. Sure, Leonardo DiCaprio and Brie Larson won the awards that everybody expected they would; Amy and Son of Saul and Inside Out followed the script as the Documentary, Foreign Language, and Animated winners. But while most people were predicting Mad Max  success, I’m not sure too many people called its near-sweep of the tech categories. And that’s not even getting into the two biggest upsets of the night coming in two of the top categories: Mark Rylance upending Sylvester Stallone’s Best Supporting Actor bid, and Spotlight spoiling The Revenant‘s victory parade at the last possible second.

How did those two wins happen? Even in a year as unpredictable as this one, predictions had begun to coalesce around The Revenant and certainly Stallone. Let’s take these one at a time.

Triumph of the Tony-Winner

The received wisdom was that Stallone was a beloved Hollywood veteran, having triumphed in 1976 with the original Rocky, about to be lauded for a comeback performance in Creed. The reality turns out to have been quite different. There were whispers throughout the season that Stallone was not as well liked within Hollywood as the ovation for his Golden Globe win made it seem. Now that he’s lost, the narrative may end up looking at lot like that of Burt Reynolds, another Hollywood veteran who everybody expected would win (for Boogie Nights in 1997) only to get snaked by Robin Williams at the last second.

Also, not for nothing, but Mark Rylance is an awards magnet, you just wouldn’t know it unless you follow theater. But he’s won three Tony Awards and he’s not even 60 yet. And he almost won an Emmy last fall for Wolf Hall. At this point, it’d be a surprise if he doesn’t EGOT soon.

This year’s Best Supporting Actor race was all over the map. Rylance, Stallone, and Michael Shannon (99 Homes) took the major critics’ awards. Stallone took the Golden Globe, but then he wasn’t even nominated at the Screen Actors Guild Awards. Which in hindsight, yes, was probably a pretty big indicator of weakness. When Idris Elba won the SAG, the assumption was that Stallone was a lock for the Oscar. After all, if Rylance was such a threat, wouldn’t he have been able to take SAG in a Stallone-free field? In reality, it seems more and more likely that if Elba — who also won the Independent Spirit Award — was only able to clear the hurdle of getting nominated, he was the one whose buzz was cresting at the right time. Instead, Mark Rylance was in the right place at the right time. Sometimes that’s enough.

Spotlight Shines Brightest

Spotlight won the first award presented last night, for Best Original Screenplay, and the last award presented, for Best Picture. In between, it lost all four of its other nominations, and not very noisily either. It wasn’t supposed to be a contender in Best Supporting Actress (for Rachel McAdams) or Best Editing, or even Best Director, despite the fact that Tom McCarthy took that same award at the Spirits on Saturday night. Mark Ruffalo had been floated as a potential spoiler to topple Stallone, but that turned out to be Mark Rylance’s gig. Mad Max‘s avalanche of tech wins had gotten people’s hopes up for George Miller’s film to upset, but once Alejandro Gonzalez Iñarritu won Best Director for The Revenant, the race seemed over. And then … “Spotlight.” How’d this happen?

For one thing, Spotlight benefitted from being the movie about substance stacked up against the movies about spectacle. This has been a trend in recent years. This was the third year in the last four that Best Picture and Best Director have split, and in the previous two cases, the film that won Best Director took home the majority of total Oscars on the night. Life of Pi in 2012 and Gravity in 2013 were seen as technical triumphs, but they ultimately lost out to films with more social import: Argo and 12 Years a Slave, respectively. This year was even more muddled, with the film winning the most awards, Mad Max, winning neither Best Picture nor Best Director. Which puts Mad Max in the company of the original Star Wars as the winningest films to get shut out of both top categories. Spotlight was the movie that was about something important. That probably helped.

Also, not for nothing, but there’s probably a reason why Best Picture has never in 88 years gone to the same director’s films twice in a row. Iñarritu made history as the first director since Joseph L. Mankiewicz in 1950 to win back-to-back Best Director honors, but it’s never happened for Best Picture. It may seem counterintuitive when the nominations felt so withholding to actors of color, but the Oscars really do generally like to spread the wealth.

So enjoy that spot at the top of the mountain, Tom McCarthy. The odds are really against that happening again next year. Though, seriously, it’s time to start looking at what ever film Michael Keaton’s in this year. He’s been one hell of a good luck charm these last two years. He’s the first actor since Russell Crowe in 2000/2001 (Gladiator and A Beautiful Mind) to be the lead actor in two consecutive Best Picture winners. Time to put some eyeballs on The Founder, about the man who founded McDonald’s. Early frontrunner for 2016.