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Foxcatcher won big at the specialty box office this weekend, but can the quiet film about an eccentric aristocrat who murders a wrestling champion win big at the Oscars?

Foxcatcher has a lot of things going for it. It’s directed by Bennett Miller, whose previous films, Capote and Moneyball, were adored by critics. It’s based on a true crime story that taps into the American class system. Oh, and it features astonishingly good performances from Steve Carrell, Mark Ruffalo, and Channing Tatum.

However, as good as Foxcatcher is, it’s also incredibly dark. You could almost say that’s a quiet film, and that might work against it. In fact, some critics, including Leonard Maltin, have disparaged the film for this very reason. Maltin called it “a well-crafted but joyless film that’s notable solely for its leading performances.” Ouch.

There’s another reason why Foxcatcher‘s quiet tone might spell doom. Oscar campaigning takes a lot of razzle dazzle. Either your film has to be bombastic, or your stars do. Birdman and Interstellar offer their audiences sumptuous spectacles that are hard to forget. The Imitation Game and Gone Girl have popular movie stars and powerful producers to push their work into the spotlight. If Foxcatcher is going to have any major success this season, it’s going to be up to its stars. Steve Carrell and Mark Ruffalo are both going to have to push their stellar performances into the conversation.

That said, here are Decider’s current predictions for who we think will get nominated in the six major categories — not who we think deserves to be (ranked in order of buzziness):

BEST PICTURE

Front Runners: The Imitation Game, Boyhood, The Theory Of Everything, Birdman, Foxcatcher, Gone Girl, Selma, Unbroken, Interstellar, Into The Woods

What’s The Buzz: A couple of big things happened over the last week that have changed the Oscar race. Tim Burton’s Big Eyes opened to mixed reviews (IndieWire literally called it “basic”), Selma opened to raves, and The Imitation Game took home the most honors at the Hollywood Film Awards. While The Imitation Game already looks like the film to beat, critics are still favoring Boyhood, and Selma might surge even more with the help of Oprah.

BEST DIRECTOR

Front Runners: Alejandro González Iñárritu (Birdman), Richard Linkletter (Boyhood), Morten Tyldum (The Imitation Game), David Fincher (Gone Girl), Bennet Miller (Foxcatcher)

What’s The Buzz: We’re holding steady with our picks for Best Director this week, but we are bumping Morten Tyldum up a few notches. However, all five of these guys are going to have to hustle if they want to freeze out Angelina Jolie.

BEST ACTOR

Front Runners: Michael Keaton (Birdman), Benedict Cumberbatch (The Imitation Game), Steve Carrell (Foxcatcher), Eddie Redmayne (The Theory Of Everything), David Oyelowo (Selma)

What’s The Buzz: Selma‘s early reviews are incredibly strong, and most of the critics who have seen the Martin Luther King, Jr. drama point out British actor David Oyelowo’s breathtaking lead performance. We think he could freeze out Oscar hopefuls like Bradley Cooper, Mark Wahlberg, and Miles Teller. Also, while Keaton is still our top pick, Cumberbatch is right on his tail.

BEST ACTRESS

Front Runners: Julianne Moore (Still Alice), Reese Witherspoon (Wild), Rosamund Pike (Gone Girl), Felicity Jones (The Theory Of Everything), Amy Adams (Big Eyes)

What’s The Buzz: Early in the year, some insiders were gossiping that this could finally be the year that Amy Adams nabs an Oscar. Her performance in Tim Burton’s Big Eyes was supposed to be a career best. However, early reviews of the film suggest there’s nothing truly special about the film, which doesn’t bode well for Adams.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Front Runners: J.K. Simmons (Whiplash), Edward Norton (Birdman), Ethan Hawke (Boyhood), Mark Ruffalo (Foxcatcher), Channing Tatum (Foxcatcher)

What’s The Buzz: We are holding steady with our choices here. Not many other critics are putting Tatum in the mix, but we honestly think that the movie star’s likability (and his transformative performance) will earn him a nomination.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Front Runners: Keira Knightley (The Imitation Game), Emma Stone (Birdman), Meryl Streep (Into The Woods), Patricia Arquette (Boyhood), Laura Dern (Wild)

What’s The Buzz: Keira Knightley won Best Supporting Actress at the Hollywood Film Awards this weekend, and even though it’s not exactly the most auspicious honor, we have to wonder if the accolade will propel the starlet’s Oscar campaign. We also are pushing Jessica Chastain off our list because her Interstellar contract will make it almost literally impossible for her to promote her work in A Most Violent Year (or anything else).

Of course, the Oscars are nothing if not a political game. Every week, new films are released, reviewed, and hyped by the Hollywood machine. And that means that every week, new frontrunners might emerge. The Oscar Grouch will be back every Monday to keep you updated on this year’s Oscar race.

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[Photos: Everett Collection & The Weinstein Company]