The warm glow of MLB Hot Stove’s warming glow: AL Central

We continue our whip around the baseball offseason by looking at the American League’s worst division, which was won by a team that wasn’t even trying to win, the AL Central.

Projected 2023 Payroll: $173 million

Notable Free Agents: Jose Abreu, Johnny Cueto, A.J. Pollock we guess? If A.J. Pollock is a key free agent that tells its own story

Could they use Aaron Judge? And how!

What else could they use besides Judge? Their biggest need has already been met, and that was an appointment of an actual warm body in the manager’s chair. The hiring of Pedro Grifol is already an improvement, unless he openly attacks his players while they’re on the basepaths. He merely has to be neutral to be better than that Hall-of-Famer baseball person.

That said, this is still the most disappointing roster in baseball, a team that should have romped to a division title and yet let enough baseballs bounce off their heads and lazed around the bases and the field and threw enough hangers to completely fuck itself out of a playoff spot. They probably could use a shakeup just to let some players who have become awfully comfortable know that they haven’t won anything of note yet and they should get out of their own ass.

That may start with letting Jose Abreu walk. Abreu was the unquestioned leader of the team, but when you’re the leader of a team that spent 5/6ths of its season unable to locate a fuck to give, it raises some questions about your leadership abilities. Abreu was still a very effective hitter and became far more patient than he’s been in the past, cutting his Ks by a quarter. The first baseman probably still has something to give.

But opening up first base for Andrew Vaughn would solve their glut of outfielders who can’t play the outfield, as would giving Eloy Jimenez the DH role full-time where he can’t be a danger to society with a glove on his hand. However, it sounds like Vaughn may be the prime trade chip this winter for whatever GM Rick Hahn has decided they need (probably more relievers).

The Southsiders need any outfielder not named Luis Robert who can actually get to a fly ball and snag it without risking life and limb. Again, free-agent Met Brandon Nimmo is a fit for a lot of teams but there may not be one more of a fit than the White Sox, who need his OBP skills and glove in either corner, desperately. Highly rated Cuban prospect Oscar Colas looks set to take one of those spots, too, but the Sox will need more especially if Abreu (above) walks. But this is the Sox after all, so you can basically pencil in a one-year deal for Michael Conforto and that’ll be it.

Second base remains a hole, and it wouldn’t be the worst idea to take a run at one of the SSs on the market and kick Tim Anderson over there. It would also be a good idea to tell Anderson to hit the ball in the air more than once a week. However, neither of these things is going to happen because owner Jerry Reinsdorf signing a check that size for one of the prime free agents is only something that happens in Narnia. If the Sox didn’t have such glaring holes it might also have been time to have a real talk about Yoan Moncada, who can’t stay healthy and only sporadically flashes being a real star, but adding third base to the to-do list that already has outfield and second on it and possibly first could be just running in place.

The rotation could use a boost in the middle, because the Sox have no idea what Lucas Giolito is now after a severe crash landing in 2022 and heading to free agency after 2023. It’s set at the top with Dylan Cease and Michael Kopech. Lance Lynn might not be what he was but a pretty sturdy No. 3 and would be a sturdier No. 4. Garret Crochet wants to start, but can’t be trusted to do so after missing last year through Tommy John-itis. They’ll find it hard to replicate what they got out of the last slot in the rotation from Johnny Cueto, and that’s even if they bring Cueto back. Seeing as how the Guardians dunked on them with their rotation, a Chris Bassitt or Jameson Taillon wouldn’t look out of place here.

Crochet can boost the pen and be an actual multi-inning weapon as he works back to full health. They can worry about the pen at the deadline if they have to. Clearing their heads is a bigger priority this winter.

Projected 2023 Payroll: Whatever they dig out of the couch.

Notable Free Agents: Austin Hedges is about as close as it gets. Also the charred husk of Bryan Shaw.

Could they use Aaron Judge? Sure could, but like in the same way I could use Margot Robbie buying me a Manhattan. My life would definitely improve but it’s just about as likely.

What could they use besides Judge? They’ll say time. Another season of development from Oscar Gonzalez, Steven Kwan, and Andres Gimenez will lead to improvement from an offense that, despite all the self-righteous noise about its scrappiness and slappiness, was middling at best. Not necessarily wrong, though there’s a fair amount of noise in Gonzalez’s half-season (.345 BABIP for a guy with no speed and didn’t hit the ball especially hard). They’re basically going to run it back, because it’s the cheapest way to do it, with only Bo Naylor taking over for Hedges behind the plate. They will catch everything of course, though an upgrade in center from the without-a-purpose-at-the-plate Myles Straw wouldn’t be the worst idea. And maybe flipping SS Amed Rosario and Gimenez positionally, as Rosario wasn’t all that great in the field last year and hasn’t been for a bit.

The Cleveland rotation will remain intact, though don’t be shocked if you hear some Shane Bieber trade rumors as he has one more arbitration year after this one and that’s been when teams like to strike. The back half of the rotation wasn’t as great as you might think, though it will probably get a bump midseason when Daniel Espino comes up for air, as he’s been striking out nearly two hitters per inning in the minors. The Guardians got incredible health last year, getting 30+ starts from both Bieber, Cal Quantrill, and Tristan Mckenzie and another 44 combined from Zach Plesac and Aaron Civale. That’s unlikely to happen again, and another arm just to be a safety net would be wise, if only to be a bridge to Espino.

Whatever we write about the pen doesn’t matter, because Cleveland will just find another two or three guys lying around who turn the baseball into three mini-baseballs on the way to the plate or something like they always do.

Projected 2023 Payroll: $119 million

Notable Free Agents: Andrew Chafin and Tucker Barnhardt. Light all the candles.

Could they use Aaron Judge? They could use about three of him.

What else could they use besides Judge? Oh boy. What do you do when a rebuild falls flat? Well, if you’re the Phillies you package what you have left from the failure to trade for J.T. Realmuto and then sign big checks for the rest. There might not be a check big enough to fix what the Tigers have become. They have little choice but to give Riley Greene and Spencer Torkelson another season or three to see if they can be salvaged. Seeing as how both are just 22, there’s still hope if only for the sake of hope. Kerry Carpenter is another, but he at least wasn’t rushed to the Majors and flashed usefulness in a cameo last year.

Seeing as how most of what the Tigers thought would be the basis for their next great team have either flatlined or gotten hurt, they can’t even really package much to acquire a new building block. Pitchers Tarik Skubal and Casey Mize have serious arm injuries. The only bright spot, and maybe the only one, was Matt Manning’s higher usage of his slider to generate a lot of weak contact and have a good season. But a pitcher that doesn’t strike anyone out and doesn’t get an inordinate amount of groundballs has a margin for error about the width of a pubic hair.

They need the kids to at least flash something this season to give them any sense of direction, and there isn’t a signing or six this winter that’s going to change that. They’re definitely in a stall.

Projected 2023 Payroll: $73 million

Notable Free Agents: Zack Greinke

Could They Use Aaron Judge? Unlike the Tigers, the Royals might only need two of him.

What else could they use besides Judge? At first glance, the Royals look like they’re in the same spot as the Tigers, whom they actually finished behind last season. A closer inspection provides more hope, where M.J. Melendez, Bobby Witt Jr., and Drew Waters haven’t fallen on their face in the Bigs, yet. Vinnie Pasquantino Ova’ Here raked in the second half. They need help up the middle, both in the infield and outfield, as the window on Alberto Mondesi Jr. being anything much has probably closed. They could try a linchpin signing like the Tigers attempted with Javier Baez last year, but you saw how that went.

K.C. could use a signing like that in the rotation, too, where Greinke (above) was the master last season. Brady Singer looks to be just about the only hope. The biggest move they could make they may have already been made, which was launching their pitching coach Cal Eldred to the moon as he oversaw a continual decomposition of whoever was hurling the ball for the Royals for five seasons. The Royals aren’t blessed with a lot that’s ready to come up to the surface in the immediate future, and might need a big trade of one player to get two or three who will help soon in return. Who that is… I can’t say.

Projected 2023 Payroll: $102 million

Notable Free Agents: Carlos Correa, Miguel Sano, Gary Sanchez, Dylan Bundy

Could they use Aaron Judge? Yep, if only to show Twins fans what a full season from Byron Buxton might have looked like.

What could they use besides Judge? Like, everything. It’s hard to pinpoint what the Twins did well last year, which is probably why they finished a tick below .500 as they did. They were a middling offensive team (17th in runs), They were a middling team in the rotation (20th in starters’ ERA). Their pen was 16th in ERA. And they were a straight-up bad defensive team, ranking 24th in Outs Above Average. And now they’re losing Correa and Bundy, who at the very least took the most amount of starts for them.

So where to begin? They basically have to build a team finally that can accommodate Buxton missing half the season, and maybe Buxton just has to be treated as a luxury that can’t be counted on.

Looking over their lineup, it feels like they should score way more than they do, and they’re not that far removed from setting the record for homers and slugging in a season as a team. Jorge Polanco will bounce back over to short after Correa’s departure, but he may be only holding it for Royce Lewis once he returns from shredding his knee last season. What can they expect after a year out? Do they need this kind of headache from a non-Buxton?

The corner outfield spots look to be the biggest area of need, as Max Kepler seemingly has gone off the boil. Alex Kiriloff will get another chance in left, but any improvement they make here has to also keep in mind that the player probably has to at least moonlight in center when something else falls off Buxton.

But not as much as the rotation is screaming for help. The Twins haven’t had a true No. 1 starter since… oh who the fuck knows? Johan Santana? Francisco Liriano? Joe Ryan and Sonny Gray are nice middle-of-the-rotation arms, but when you spent a season tossing out Chris Archer and trying to keep a straight face, you have issues. Simeon Woods Richardson could help from within, but looks like another middle guy instead of a sharp-end guy. The Twins have shown a willingness to hand out a ton of money in the short term to Correa, would they do the same for Jacob deGrom? Unlikely, but one or two starters at the top of the market is about the only hope to save this generation.