No Sleepers, All Contenders in MLB's National League

A midseason roll call of contenders might look a little something like this. 

“Philadelphia?” Here.

“Los Angeles Dodgers?” Present.

“Milwaukee?” Here.

“Atlanta?” Here.

“San Diego?” Here (adjusting their shades).

In the middle of June, 10 of 15 National League teams own losing records. San Francisco, by mere percentage points, presently owns the third and final wild card spot with a run differential of minus 27 and a 34-35 record.

The NL has embraced parity—or mediocrity—in its middle to the extent that one would swear the ghost of Pete Rozelle is now its commissioner. The difference between the Giants and Arizona, Pittsburgh and Washington, who are each behind St. Louis, Cincinnati and the Chicago Cubs, is a mere 1.5 games entering Friday.

Want to know what all this is going to mean when the calendar finally meanders into October and we’re allowed to watch playoff baseball? Absolutely nothing.

Don’t believe me? Remember 2021, when the 88-win Braves acquired a brand-new outfield at the trading deadline and sent Freddie Freeman off into a Los Angeles sunset with a World Series title, beating three favored opponents (the Brewers, Dodgers, Astros) along the way?

Then there was 2022, when the Dodgers won a zillion games and kicked sand in the Padres’ sun-tanned faces all summer long. In October, San Diego finally got one over on Big Brother in the NLDS, eliminating LA in four games that Padre diehards will tell you meant more than any of their two World Series trips.

And that San Diego team waved goodbye to the postseason in the next round against the Phillies, the last team to get into the dance.

Last year? Arizona scraped into the postseason as the last seed in the NL. Naturally, it swept Milwaukee, swept the Dodgers, and then eliminated Philadelphia in Game 7 to win a stunning league title.

So it’s understandable that last month, before his Padre team blew out Atlanta during the Sunday Night Game of the World, first-year manager Mike Shildt told the ESPN crew that “all you have to do is get in.”

The bigger point, which he quickly made, is that most people recognize that the NL has three “super” teams: the Phillies, Dodgers and Braves. Of course, that was before Atlanta’s level of play fell off to the point that Philadelphia is now running away with the NL East. But would anyone be stunned if the Braves figured it out in October? Hell to the no.

And for that matter, would the Phillies or Dodgers want to see the Pirates in a short series? 

You want to face Paul Skenes in Game 1, Jared Jones in Game 2 and Mitch Keller in Game 3? Me neither. Nor do you necessarily want to confront the Reds, who own plenty of swing-and-miss pitchers and a generational talent in Elly De La Cruz that can carry a team at his best.

Baseball identifies its best teams over 162 games. 

Those best teams in recent years have frequently tripped over the on-deck circle in October. Bet on Philadelphia or Los Angeles if you must, but don’t be surprised if you watch San Diego and, say, the Cardinals battle it out for the NLCS.