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July 4, 2024 Best Sports Betting Picks & Predictions For John Deere Classic & MLB

Mike SullivanMike Sullivan|published: Thu Jul 04 2024 14:53
PHOTO USA Today Sports Images

There will be no Scottie Scheffler sightings in Silvis, Ill., at the John Deere Classic this week, as he is one of the many golfers preparing for upcoming bigger events overseas. 

His absence makes for a wide-open field.

Here on the Fourth of July, we're looking for guys who can hit the ball a mile and throw it faster than a drag racer. It's a day for pure power. 

JOHN DEERE CLASSIC

Jordan Spieth (+2200) won this event in 2013 and 2015 and never returned until now. Interesting choice because if I win something twice in three years that pays well, I'm going to keep coming back until they lock me out of the place—or take me to jail if I'm in Louisville, Ky.

Spieth is receiving a lot of attention for his return to the course in Silvis, Ill., but it is a good thing if you don't let your wallet go along for the ride. Though Spieth, who turns 31 later this month, has 13 career victories, only two have come in the past seven years. He has also missed the cut in six of his last 14 events.

Defending champion Sepp Straka and Sungjae Im are the co-favorites at +1600. Straka fired 21 under to win last year, and he also has three top-five finishes in his past eight events. Im tied for third at the Travelers Championship and has four top-10s in his last six events. Alas, he missed the cut at the two that matter most: the PGA Championship and the U.S. Open.

An under-the-radar choice is what we need, and the best route is to tab somebody who can finish in the top five. Stellar putter Denny McCarthy (+2200 to win) tied for sixth in this event last year. He had two top-10 finishes earlier this season, and a top five is reasonable given this isn't the strongest field.

Denny McCarthy top five, +500 (DraftKings)

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CLEARING THE FENCES

It's always fun to see some long balls on the Fourth of July. It's probably even more fun to be the guy who hits one, and we see a few candidates to do just that.

Aaron Judge is always a candidate to do so, and he hit 11 out of the ballpark in June. The Yankee star is 2-for-7 with four strikeouts against Cincinnati's Frankie Montas. We read those numbers to say he's due.

Yordan Alvarez's power bat is alive this month. Every swing of his is a potential homer, and that's especially true against Toronto's Chris Bassitt. Alvarez is 8-for-18 with five homers against Bassitt.

The Milwaukee Brewers play at a mile-high altitude in Denver. Combine that with Colorado's pitching staff, and you could literally pick anyone in the lineup. Willy Adames, Rhys Hoskins, and Christian Yelich are prime picks.

Yordan Alvarez to homer, +260 (DraftKings)

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MAKING THEM SWING AND MISS

San Diego's Michael King has more strikeouts (115) than anyone pitching Thursday, so he should be your starting point. He has fanned 10 or more on three occasions, including racking up 12 in five-plus innings against the Oakland Athletics last month. The Texas Rangers have some free-swingers, and that will certainly help.

Baltimore's Corbin Burnes has had two 11-strikeout performances this season, and one was in six innings against the Seattle Mariners, his Thursday opponent. He should be on your radar even though he hasn't fanned more than seven since in seven starts.

The guys that finished second (San Francisco's Logan Webb) and third (Arizona's Zac Gallen) in last year's National League Cy Young voting are both on the slab. Webb hasn't fanned more than eight, so he will need his best gas to be the pick. Gallen just returned from a month-long hamstring injury and had seven strikeouts in six innings against Oakland last Saturday. His pitch count decides whether he can get into double digits.

A surprise guy to watch is Philadelphia's Cristopher Sanchez, who struck out nine in a complete-game effort against the Miami Marlins in his last start. He faces the Chicago Cubs, who are having issues on the offensive end.

Michael King over 5.5 strikeouts, -110 (DraftKings)


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