Deadspin MLB Gambling Guide/Futures Bets to make for 2022 Season

What an interesting offseason, huh?

Right after the Braves thankfully downed America’s most-hated sports villains, the Astros, in six games to cap off their World Series win, we got the typical flurry of team transactions through November. But then there was nothing. For 99 days.

That’s how long the first Major League Baseball work stoppage since the infamous lockout of 1994-95 — which was so devastating that it resulted in the cancellation of a season and playoffs — would last. And it easily could’ve been longer given the rejected “last and best” offers involved. Oh and what about those makeshift deadlines that were whiffed on?

Nevertheless, a deal was struck and roster activity reconvened in a fast-and-furious manner — obviously due to the largely condensed timeframe each franchise had. This was still weeks ago.

The whole ordeal presents a fascinating variable for bettors to weigh going into the new campaign. Will the shortened spring training affect certain teams? Will players — the most creature-of-habit athletes in sports — be phased by the different training period? All valuable to consider.

Mining through all of that, here are season futures and prop bets to have action on.

Texas Rangers Over 74.5 Wins (-105)

Not often does a team draw a win total that is as many as 15-ish games above their number of Ws the previous year. Making such a huge leap is rare, after all.

Well, meet the 2022 Rangers, a significantly-transformed ball club that will not only be in position to smash that mark of 74.5, but they just might legitimately contend for the playoffs, too.

North of $500 million was dolled out by Texas this offseason, with more than half of that going to their shiny new middle infield comprised of Corey Seager (above) and Marcus Semien. They also acquired a real power-hitting catcher in the form of Mitch Garver, after compiling nothing but dead bats behind the plate for several years.

Considering last season’s appalling batting order scored fewer runs than anyone after the All-Star Break, a jolt was desperately needed to this lineup. A jolt was indeed delivered by Jon Daniels.

The pitching rotation received a notable upgrade as well thanks to the four-year, $56 million purchase of Jon Gray. Escaping Colorado could do wonders for the former No. 3 overall draft selection.

Mostly, though, the Rangers will be depending on young, unproven starters, but that’s OK because these are arms that have shown an ability to thrive. I would expect at least two of Dane Dunning, Taylor Hearn, A.J. Alexy, Spencer Howard and Kolby Allard to break out and solidify themselves as fine Major League starters. That’s really all that’s needed when shooting for a team to reach 75 wins.

For what it’s worth, the Rangers actually lead both the Grapefruit and Cactus Leagues in runs scored throughout spring training. At the very least, this signals a re-ignited offense capable of doing a lot of damage in the year ahead, especially in a relatively pitching-inferior division. If those young Ranger starters come through like I think they will, that will be the difference.

Los Angeles Angels YES, make playoffs (+140)

To win division (+390)

Unquestionably among the most shocking stats in all of sports is that Mike Trout has been to the playoffs a grand total of once in his 10 seasons in the Big Leagues.

And the Angels got swept that series. So the universal-consensus best player has zero postseason wins to his name. Yet I’m eyeing this as my favorite playoff future?

Yes I am. Obviously, Trout is going to get back to the postseason at some point. Why can’t it be now with a superior cast? The addition of an extra playoff berth to each league can really help matters, too.

Regardless, this club just has too much talent to not be a factor. You heard plenty about Shohei Ohtani all of last year and I’m sure we’ll hear plenty more upcoming about his marvels as hitter-and-pitcher extraordinaire. Something else that figures to get a lot of attention is the return of Anthony Rendon, who, remember, was a Silver Slugger Award winner only three years ago. Jo Adell, meanwhile, is a story waiting to be told.

Of course, hitting has never really been the issue in Anaheim. The annual disappointments of this organization throughout Trout’s decorated career have always been tied to poor pitching. However, that might not be the case now.

Noah Syndergaard comes to the Angels from New York and appears to be back to full health after missing all but two innings of the prior two years. If healthy, there’s no reason he can’t be the Thor of old — a clear All-Star-caliber pitcher. His workout buddy Michael Lorenzen was added in addition and should provide quality work. Patrick Sandoval and Reid Detmers can be useful arms for October plans as well.

All of this behind Ohtani dealings makes for, at least, a serviceable staff. Closing things out is still one of the steadiest in the business, Raisel Iglesias.

I say don’t stop there. The Halos have all the artillery to do more than just nab that wacky extra wild-card spot. When you project the incoming shift in power in the AL West — Oakland purposely sucks while Houston may be becoming a bit more vulnerable — there’s an opportunity here for Los Angeles to capture the division. At those nifty +390 odds, it’s worth a wager.

Chicago White Sox (+1100)

Yes, the AL Central will most certainly be much tougher in 2022 after the White Sox cakewalked to a division title by 13 games.

That means the route to a postseason slot won’t be as assured as some may think. Even so, this is still undoubtedly a playoff-caliber team that can do a lot of damage taking out the whole field come October.

Given their intriguing +1100 odds to be the last ones standing, they look like the best value bet in terms of World Series futures, even if only for possibly presenting hedging opportunities at later junctures.

Just look at their lineup, boasting the likes of Jose Abreu, Luis Robert (above), Eloy Jimenez, Tim Anderson, and Yasmani Grandal. Youngsters Andrew Vaughn and Jake Burger are still on the rise and can be viewed as dangerous. How can this offense not be in every single game?

The rotation runs deep (when Lance Lynn is healthy). The bullpen, starring Liam Hendriks, is absolutely one of baseball’s best units. Looking at every team’s overall balance, the Pale Hose stick out most.

NL - Kris Bryant, Colorado Rockies (+4500)

The Rockies have wielded a whopping one Most Valuable Player Award winner in their 30-year history. That was Hall of Famer Larry Walker in 1997.

Walker, though, played in the rocky mountains during a rare time when the Rockies were consistently a powerhouse. Being a non-factor most of this century, it’s hard for any Colorado slugger to get any recognition as a potential MVP candidate.

Given those pretty +4500 odds, I’m willing to put down something on that changing. Bryant has helped deliver major miracles before (uh, see: 2016 Cubs), after all.

Someone from the Rockies taking home MVP honors isn’t as unthinkable as you may think anyway. No matter their place in the standings, this team always has offense. This year they just might have enough pitching to get back into the mix.

So long as they remain in contention, which I think they can do, the lineup will be the biggest reason, and who would largely get the bulk of credit for that? The former No. 2 overall draft pick Bryant, who I’m confident will put up monster numbers in his new digs — just like so many others before him that made the jump to Coors.

Thirty home runs, 100-plus RBI’s and a .280-ish average definitely would propel Bryant into the conversation. If nothing else, his lottery-ticket-like odds could present a juicy hedging opportunity.

AL - Alek Manoah, Toronto Blue Jays (+2500)

How impressive was this kid last year?

In his rookie showcase of 2021, Manoah was simply dominant. In fact, 75 percent of the time Manoah took the hill for an assignment he allowed two earned runs or fewer. Overall, the 24-year-old made 20 starts, pitching to a nifty 3.22 ERA.

Manoah registered 10.2 K/9, making him one of seven AL starters to rack up double-digit strikeouts per nine innings. Even more impressive, he held hitters to the lowest average in the league among starters, shackling them to a .192 mark.

Being on the Blue Jays — the team that is actually favored to take the AL East this season — there should be no shortage of wins alongside the 6-foot-6 right-hander’s name. Similar numbers to last year’s ascension at least paints him in the Cy Young picture at the very end.

AL - Bobby Witt Jr., Kansas City Royals (+300)

Taking a stab at this year’s AL Rookie of the Year honors is probably as difficult as it has ever been.

Just look at some of the future star power listed behind Bobby Witt Jr. in terms of odds for the hardware: Julio Rodriguez. Spencer Torkelson. Adley Rutschman. Shane Baz. Even someone like Joe Ryan or Reid Detmers could be game enough to nab this award. The field is genuinely stacked.

Yet I’m going with the favorite, which normally isn’t a recommended strategy in such a competitive field that could see a number of others realistically win instead.

However, being so enamored by Witt and his incredible skillset, I just cannot resist. Here is someone that could legitimately be recognized as the Fernando Tatis Jr. of the AL (and not because they’re both sons of former big leaguers playing on the same side of the infield). Last year between Double-A Arkansas and Triple-A Omaha, Witt registered an impressive .290/.361/.576 slash line while falling one stolen base short of being a 30-30 man.

Only six players have accomplished this feat in the majors since 2010. Witt wouldn’t surprise me pulling it off multiple times in what will be a very rousing career.

The very beginning of said rousing career begins right here with a dynamic showing.

Eloy Jimenez Over 30.5 Home Runs (-115)

Don’t be fooled by the low amount of dongs launched by Jimenez a year ago. While he “only” had 10 in 55 games played, remember that the left fielder didn’t make his season debut until the end of July due to a pectoral-tendon tear.

Naturally, anyone can struggle jumping into the fold late and trying to settle in. The idea of this bet should be more so viewed from the perspective that this is a nice buy-low opportunity for bettors with Jimenez, who is a monster when healthy.

Look at the shortened 2020 campaign for instance. Jimenez cranked out 14 home runs across 55 games, which translates to about a 41-homer pace. In his freshman campaign the year prior, Jimenez deposited 31 taters — in just 122 games.

The White Sox lineup is one of the most explosive in all of baseball. Jimenez is healthy and will be in the middle of that.

Daniel Vogelbach Over 14.5 Home Runs (-115)

Really? All Vogelbach has to do is clock 15 long balls while presumably sitting comfy in the middle of the Bucco batting order?

Vogelbach — and his mammoth Michelin Man-type build that has already led him to being a cult favorite for three different fanbases previously — was made to hit home runs. He’s proven before that he has the ability to go yard at an above-average rate when he launched 30 taters three years ago (albeit with juiced balls?).

Here, Vogelbach will only need half that and it appears he’ll get plenty of at-bats. One important component of season-long player props is simply keeping your guy on the field, and being in a place like Pittsburgh that has frighteningly-low depth for heart-of-the-order candidates, that will be no issue for Vogie in 2022.

Well, perhaps until the trade deadline that is. Even so, with this number being so low, Vogelbach could reach that by August.

Dane Dunning Over 7 Wins (-115)

Oof, talk about disrespect. On a team that is guaranteed of being much better this season compared to last, Dunning is only being pegged for seven wins by the oddsmakers. Surely he is better than that.

True, Dunning finished 5-10 with a middling 4.51 ERA — and he does only have seven wins in 34 career starts at the Big-League level — but if you think about it, the positives are only about to come for the former first-round draft selection.

Dunning previously cruised through all levels of the minor leagues and was poised to dazzle before succumbing to Tommy John surgery that delayed his MLB debut. He finally did make it to The Show in the shortened 2020 season and was solid, but that limited work meant Dunning had barely worked the prior two years.

Now, however, Dunning is about to settle in and prove himself as a viable middle-of-the-rotation starter, at least. The 3.94 FIP he notched last season indicates he was far better than his overall stat line, and he was unlucky, too, considering the unsustainable .338 average on balls put in play against the former White Sox hurler.

That, coinciding with Texas’ much-improved lineup, has to be enough to garner Dunning at least seven victories.

Logan Gilbert Over 8.5 Wins (-115)

Despite finishing with a 4.68 ERA to wrap up his rookie season, Logan Gilbert was mostly impressive, evidenced by a 1.17 WHIP.

Gilbert ultimately also collected six wins — which is what we care about most as it pertains to this bet — and that came in 24 starts after being called up mid-May.

Given where the Mariners drafted him just a handful of years ago (No. 14 overall), there’s no question Gilbert will get about 10 more outings than that if he can stay healthy. And when you consider he plays for a competitive team that figures to at least hover around .500, that adds up to about 10 victories for the right-hander.

Fortunately, he only needs nine. There’s a lot to like about this sophomore starter, especially his maturity and poise for a 24-year-old if you watched any of his starts last year, and that will only serve to accelerate his inevitable rise oncoming.