Christoph von dem Bussche

🎉BW Energy: Hibiscus South pilot well confirms hydrocarbons🎉 According to BW Energy, the DHBSM-2P pilot well has confirmed that the Hibiscus South deposit extends into the northern part of the field with good reservoir quality, increasing reserve estimates. The company plans to complete the well as a production well later in 2024. Read the full story by clicking here 👇 #BWEnergy #HibiscusSouth #hydrocarbons

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#Rosneft subsidiary #Vostsibneftegaz (East Siberian Oil & Gas Company) marks its 30th anniversary. #Vostsibneftegaz is developing "the oldest deposit on the planet", Yurubcheno-Tokhomskoye (Yu-T), which is more than 1 billion years old. Yu-T is located in Evenkiyskiy District in northern Krasnoyarskiy Territory, East Siberia. The company entered the #Rosneft fold in 2007. By 2016, full-scale development of the field, Yu-T, began. Early oil production was delivered to #Transneft's Kuyumba – Tayshet oil pipeline (connected to the East Siberia - Pacific Ocean / #ESPO pipeline system). #Vostsibneftegaz's cumulative production is ~ 18 million tons [~ 130 MM bbls] of oil. Well stock includes 267 horizontals, with 5 multilaterals. The presence of numerous cavities and cracks in the sub-surface formation necessitated the "use of advanced exploration and drilling technologies". Given the remoteness of the Yu-T field, the primary oil and gas production facilities and infrastructure are supplied with energy from a gas-turbine power plant, which runs on associated petroleum gas (#APG). #Rosneft also notes #Vostsibneftegaz's flagship #ESG initiative, a grant program to support environmental and ethnographic research, which is celebrating its tenth anniversary this year. The program supports 29 scientific projects focused on the study of bioindicator populations and ecosystems of the region, and the preservation of the Evenki language (the Evenki are the regional indigenous peoples). In 2023, the company organized for the first time a large-scale festival of northern culture in the city of Krasnoyarsk. #Vostsibneftegaz employs > 2500 personnel. https://lnkd.in/giVqDPaq

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The US Department of Energy is misleading about the volume of oil in the reserve. The US Department of Energy reported that the country's strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) was full and returned to 2022 levels, with all of the more than 180 million barrels previously spent from it suddenly arriving there. But despite this statement, the reserve, as calculated by Western media, contains only 370 million barrels, that is, it has been replenished by only 27.7 million barrels, although it can hold more than 700 million. The publication Oilprice writes that the American department misled citizens, since it included barrels that had not yet been delivered and cancelled sales in the figures for replenishing reserves. Meanwhile, the SPR index remained more than 40% below the level it was at the time President Biden took office. In January 2021, the reserve held 638 million barrels, but in 2023, the SPR lost 288 million barrels. Since then, the Biden administration has made several purchases to return oil to the reserve, but by July 19, 2024, the SPR level had risen by only 27.7 million from the bottom. That's just 9.6% of the oil that was pulled out of the SPR. Today, the SPR is still 260.6 million barrels below where it was when Joe Biden was inaugurated. https://lnkd.in/eiR92JiW

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A brief update on the #PowerOfSiberia2 gas pipeline system and #Rosneft's Arctic mega-project #VostokOil. While in Astana, Kazakhstan, Russian Deputy PM Aleksandr Novak said that Russia and China intend to agree on the terms and parameters of the contract for gas supplies via the #PowerOfSiberia2 [#PoS2] gas pipeline to the PRC "as soon as possible". Novak noted: - [The issue of signing the contract] was discussed [during the visit of Russian President Putin to Astana] and supported; - Work will continue in order to agree on conditions and parameters; - Instructions were given to do this as soon as possible. The planned export capacity of the so-called Western route [#PoS2) is 50 billion m3/year of gas. Negotiations with China on the contract continue, but the decision to construct the #PoS2 pipeline within the framework of the Eastern Gas Supply System, which will unite Russia's eastern and western gas transmission systems, has already been made in Russia. Novak said that it is planned to combine the eastern and western gas transportation systems by 2030-2032, and #Gazprom has already begun design and survey work. In December 2023 it was reported that the terms of construction of the gas pipeline had been finalized by #Gazprom and China's #CNPC. Survey work is underway to lay a section of the pipeline through Mongolia, known as Union East. Putin also stated that the planned #PoS2 route through Mongolia makes it possible to lay an oil pipeline in the same corridor. With regards to the #VostokOil Project, Novak said that Russia and China are studying the possibility of Chinese companies participating in the project, and in July 2024 the issue will be discussed at the business level: - This issue was discussed at previous meetings; - A Russian-Chinese business forum will be held in July; - I think that [businesses there] will discuss [this possibility] in detail at the company level. #VostokOil is #Rosneft's flagship project, located in the East Siberian Arctic. It includes 52 license blocks in the north of Krasnoyarskiy Territory and 13 in the Yamal-Nenets Autonomous Okrug. https://lnkd.in/gkmCPJib

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#ANDnotOR The use of fossil fuels will be necessary for the desired transition to however we.want to define renewable energy Green-Energy Flops Revive Bets on Natural Gas https://lnkd.in/gGgq-gJz

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Venture Global's offtake agreement announced yesterday made headlines due to Ukraine — it marks the first time a Ukrainian firm has directly secured #USLNG — but it deserves close inspection for other reasons. The two-part deal includes a short-term supply agreement for (unspecified) volumes starting late this year and running through end-2026. That's noteworthy because the #Plaquemines project slated to supply that #gas is only set to start #LNG production around midyear, implying a fast turnaround of commercial volumes. For those perhaps unaware, Venture Global is in the midst of a heated arbitration battle with several of its offtake partners at its #CalcasieuPass export facility around its unusual commissioning process — which has dragged on for 27 months and counting. Venture Global has insisted the project has suffered from multiple mechanical problems and other setbacks that have prevented the project from reaching the full commissioning milestone — yet the LNG developer has successfully shipped over 200 cargoes from the plant since production began in 2022. Full commissioning would trigger cargoes being available to the contracted offtakers. Venture Global had indicated previously it expects the commissioning at Plaquemines to take at least two years — far past the 2026 end date of the short-term Ukraine heads of agreement. How the firm intends to thread the needle between its commissioning expectations and meeting this supply agreement remains to be seen — but it will no doubt be closely watched by Plaquemines' existing offtake partners, which include ORLEN S.A., EDF, SINOPEC, CNOOC International and Shell for its initial phase. Full story at Energy Intelligence:

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The Centre for Oil & Gas Economics (at the Institute of Petroleum Geology & Geophysics named after A.Trofimuk, Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences), has examined the resource base of the #PowerOfSiberia1 gas pipeline and estimated the degree to which it will suffice against #Gazprom's intended gas export volumes to China. The current #PoS1 resource base consists of two gas fields classed as 'unique' by reserves - Chayandinskoye and Kovyktinskoye. Current estimates suggest that their reserves will last until the end of the 21st century: Chayandinskoye's recoverable reserves amount to 1.04 trillion m3 [~ 37 TCF]; Kovyktinskoye's are 1.65 trillion m3 [~ 60 TCF]. Production at Chayandinskoye could reach 25 billion m3/year [~ 880 BCF/yr], and at Kovyktinskoye: 27 billion m3/year [~ 950 BCF/yr]. #PoS1 gas exports to China: In 2023: 22.7 billion m3 of natural gas versus a plan of 22 billion m3/year, equating to 47.4% growth compared to 2022; Plateau throughput should reach 38 billion m3/year in 2025, per contracts. The article suggests that plans have been developed to connect the Tas-Yuryakhskoye and Verkhnevilyuchanskoye fields, both in Sakha-Yakutiya with the rights held by #Gazprom, to #PoS1. There have been rumours that #Gazprom would need to tie additional gas fields into the #PoS1 system (beyond the initial two) so reference to these new fields isn't too surprising, though it would be helpful to know what recoverable reserves they have been estimated to hold - I've seen reference to their volumes in the recent past but it'll take me a while to find them again! According to the latest assessment by the RAS institute, the current #PoS1 raw material base would suffice until 2050, while the possible connection of new fields held by other subsoil users and expansion of the route is an option. But current and planned supplies via #PoS1 will not compensate for the ~ 100 billion m3/year lost in exports to Europe. The article also notes a nuance: In the fall of 2023, #Gazprom revealed that an agreement could be reached with China on increasing gas supplies through #PoS1 beyond the design capacity. The company discussed with #CNPC the possibility of increasing supplies to 44 billion m3/year, and prior to that an even larger figure, 60 billion m3/year of gas, had been considered. These could significantly reduce the resource base of the 'Eastern Route' (referring to #PoS1). Such ranges would require any resource base sufficiency forecasts to be adjusted accordingly. https://lnkd.in/gHBMKpTX

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"Executive chairman reiterates plan to inaugurate Sila Sibiri 3 [#PowerOfSiberia3] gas pipeline by 2027 despite financial crunch." "Russian state-controlled gas giant #Gazprom still plans to inaugurate a second natural gas pipeline to China in 2027 even as it faces financial strain after losing its most profitable market, Europe, in 2022. Speaking at the company’s annual shareholders meeting over the weekend, #Gazprom executive chairman Alexei Miller said the pipeline will deliver 10 billion cubic metres per annum of gas to China, which would make Russia the leading foreign gas supplier to China. Known as Sila Sibiri 3 [#PowerOfSiberia3], the pipeline — under construction in Russia's far east — will transport gas from the #Gazprom-operated Kirinsky offshore block on Sakhalin Island to the Russia-China border." https://lnkd.in/gh-c3uSC

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"Ousting of #WintershallDea and #OMV from joint ventures gathers pace with formation of new operating entities at Russia’s legacy Urengoy field." "Russia is pushing ahead with the confiscation of stakes held by #WintershallDea and #OMV in joint ventures with #Gazprom to commercialise deep, highly pressurised gas and condensate reserves at the country’s legacy Urengoy field. Moscow-based news agency #Interfax, citing the corporate registration database, said authorities on 1 July incorporated six new operating entities for the West Siberia gas assets previously held by the joint ventures. Under a decree signed by President Vladimir Putin and a subsequent government resolution, state controlled #Gazprom has retained its controlling stakes in the new entities." #Achimgaz #AchimDevelopment #Achimov #Urengoy #GazpromDobychaUrengoy https://lnkd.in/gPJ-bVCZ

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Argus’s Hydrogen and Future Fuels editor- Stefan Krümpelmann provides some insights in this FT article: 🔐 𝗔𝗿𝗴𝘂𝘀 𝗶𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗻𝗲𝘄𝘀 | 𝗖𝗿𝗮𝗰𝗸𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗴𝗿𝗲𝗲𝗻 𝗵𝘆𝗱𝗿𝗼𝗴𝗲𝗻’𝘀 𝗰𝗵𝗶𝗰𝗸𝗲𝗻 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗲𝗴𝗴 𝗽𝗿𝗼𝗯𝗹𝗲𝗺 | Financial Times Funding is needed for projects demonstrating viability in order to fuel demand Excerpts from Lukanyo Mnyanda's article: --- Sourcing cheap components from China, a leader in the development of clean hydrogen, could help with the cost but it remains problematic due to geopolitical tensions. Western governments have instead sought to develop local supply chains and reduce reliance on a country they view as a competitor. Even so, the cost of producing green hydrogen is still about $5 per kilogramme higher than for grey hydrogen, making it three times more expensive to produce — according to data company Argus Media. “If renewable hydrogen is to kick off in earnest, this cost gap would need to be reduced, which will not be easy and requires a combination of scaling effects, efficiency gains and government subsidies,” says Stefan Krümpelmann, global head of hydrogen pricing at Argus. He points out that, while the number of electrolyser factories planned for construction has increased, not all planned projects will reach completion and “production could be hampered by bottlenecks for individual components”. --- Read in full: https://okt.to/nvBGad #ArgusMedia #FinancialTimes #FT #hydrogenpower #greenhydrogen #naturalgas #electricity

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Fantastic discussion on the Gulf Intelligence podcast this morning. There is a widening divergence between Chinese state-owned and teapot refinery run rates on maintenance, yields and diesel stocks. Russian refinery rates are at the lowest in 11 months, with repairs slowing down after drone strikes. #OPEC to keep the market in backwardation. Our latest crude balances show deficits of 1.9 million bpd in Q2 and 2.1 million bpd in Q3, considering OPEC not extending their production cuts. US gasoline supply could be under pressure from refinery capacity rationalization and lower conversion margins on elevated medium and heavy sour prices. Sanctions on Iranian barrels are likely to impact Chinese teapot refiners the most, considering 1.0-1.5 million bpd of exports to China. Crude and product trade flows will need to reshuffle considering the regionalized, inefficient markets amid geopolitical tensions. Mukesh Sahdev Bjørnar Tonhaugen Patricio Valdivieso, Ph.D. Susan Bell Kartik Arvind Amir Zaman Claudio Galimberti Vijay Krishnan Rystad Energy

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#Gazprom announced today (May 13 2024) that it has "significantly increased gas supplies to China via the #PowerOfSiberia1 gas pipeline". It says that from January 1 to May 12, 2024, the volume of deliveries was 37.4% higher than the same period last year. In April 2024, the increase compared to April 2023 was 57.1%. #Gazprom adds: "In addition to the contractually stipulated annual increase in supplies through the #PowerOfSiberia1 pipeline, #Gazprom regularly provides daily supplies in excess of contractual obligations. Since the beginning of 2024, daily gas delivery records have been set six times. This indicates China's interest in Russian pipeline gas and the reliability of #Gazprom as a supplier and partner". Natural gas is supplied via the #PowerOfSiberia1 pipeline to China under a bilateral long-term gas purchase and sales agreement between #Gazprom and China's #CNPC. Note that #Gazprom does not provide stats on daily gas delivery volumes through the pipeline.

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Gelber Gas Daily (+ crude!) #NaturalGas -- Freeport Recovery Brings Strength Back to LNG, Transco Expansion Gains FERC Approval: NYMEX natural gas futures are down -$0.02, with the September contract last trading at $2.03/MMBtu. Futures continue to be under pressure across the forward curve, with Friday’s session having seen the front-month contract briefly dip just below $2/MMBtu. LNG feedgas demand remained strong through the end of last week. Freeport appears to be back at full capacity, the main contributor to the recent upward change. Today’s initial data puts feedgas demand at 13.4 Bcf/d – the highest since early last month. Weather forecasts continue to imply above-normal temperatures in the immediate 2-week period, with the National Hurricane Center monitoring one development in the Atlantic. The system is on track to eventually reach Florida and has a decent chance at developing further by the end of the week. On Friday, Transco gained FERC approval to finalize the remaining elements of its Regional Energy Access Expansion Project. The project has already begun partial service, with full operations anticipated by the fourth quarter of 2024. The expansion represents an 829,400 Dt/d capacity and comprises 36 miles of new pipeline and enhanced compression. Transco seeks to service markets in New York City and nearby markets. Transco has been in ongoing legal battles with both environmental groups and New Jersey’s rate counsel, but FERC's ruling permits the project to advance with construction and offer firm transportation from northeastern Pennsylvania to delivery points in New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Maryland. #Crude -- Crude Continues Downtrend As Election Odds Swing, Alberta Wildfires Continue: Crude oil futures are down -$1.59, last trading at $75.57/bbl. Wildfires in Alberta, Canada are continuing, with 176 fires in the province actively burning as of Friday’s data. Housing about 4 million bpd worth of crude production, the province may have as much as 400k bpd worth of output at risk due to the conditions. Meanwhile, election odds are improving for Democratic nominee Kamala Harris, whose chances of winning as observed in betting markets grew substantially since Harris’ campaigning gained steam last week. #Oilandgas #Commodities #NYMEX #HenryHub #Trading #Hedging #Gelber #markets #LNG #OPEC #oil #EIA #gas #gelber #WTI #Energy #Freeport

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#Kommersant covers the latest (12 June 2024) round of US #sanctions on Russia, with a focus on its energy sector (#LNG and #coal). On #LNG: The US is expanding blocking #sanctions against the Russian fuel and energy complex. The #SDN-List includes all future #NOVATEK projects and seven #LNG carriers being built at the #Rosneft-backed #Zvezda shipyard to transport #LNG from the #ArcticLNG2 Project. "The #LNG sector will likely develop along the lines of the already #sanctioned #ArcticLNG2 Project", experts say. The United States is expanding #sanctions against Russian #LNG projects, according to a message published on June 12 by the Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control (#OFAC). The #SDN-List includes all future projects of #NOVATEK: both #MurmanskLNG and the #Obskiy Gas Chemical Complex (#ObskiyGCC) planned for the near future, and the #ArcticLNG1 and #ArcticLNG3 projects planned for the more distant future. Previously, US #sanctions were imposed on #NOVATEK's #ArcticLNG2 Project, which is under construction, where the first train with a capacity of 6.6 million tons / annum is ready. Due to restrictions, the project has not yet begun shipping #LNG, including because #NOVATEK is unable to receive six Arc7 #LNG carriers from the South Korean #HanwhaOcean shipyard. Now seven of the 15 Arc7 #LNGCs being built at the #Zvezda shipyard are under direct #sanctions, including 'Aleksey Kosygin', 'Pyotr Stolypin', 'Sergey Witte', 'Viktor Chernomyrdin', 'Konstantin Posyet' and two other as yet unnamed #LNGCs. Other #NOVATEK structures are also under #sanctions: #NOVATEK LNG Fuel Kashira and Murmansk-Transgaz. Independent expert Alexander Sobko notes that in the current situation, the risk of being included in the #SDN-List “was and remains the case for any Russian #LNG project.” He says that there are two problems - the construction of an #LNG plant and the problem of transporting and marketing #sanctioned #LNG. In such conditions, the expert continues, #ArcticLNG2 becomes, in a sense, a “model” project for the development of the entire Russian #LNG sector, since the future of all other projects will depend on how the story of #ALNG2 ends. The #SDN-List includes #RusGazDobycha, which, as part of the #RusKhimAlliance joint venture with #Gazprom, is building the gas processing and liquefaction complex in Ust-Luga worth almost 3 trillion rubles, the launch of the first phase was planned in 2026. #RusKhimAlliance is already on the #SDN-List, and on June 12, the US included the head of the company, Kirill Seleznev, on the list. The project in Ust-Luga itself is not mentioned in the list. #GazpromInvest was also included in the SDN-List as an organization that “designs and builds gas industry facilities.” It is worth noting that the US State Department also announced today actions against one of several Chinese module fabrication yards that has built modules for #ALNG2: #PJOE.

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The European Round Table for Industry - ERT recently released two reports on the state of European energy intensive industries (EII). One of the two entitled “Competitiveness of the European Energy-Intensive Industries”, takes stock of the intense competitive pressure on EII, compared to their competitors elsewhere. Let's reflect on these points and how they relate to the future of EII in the Asia Pacific region: 1. Trends and Forecasts: Asia Pacific, particularly countries like China and Japan, has been rapidly expanding its industrial base. The region is investing heavily in renewable energy infrastructure and technology, potentially offering more affordable energy options compared to Europe. However, challenges such as supply chain disruptions and geopolitical tensions (e.g., in the South China Sea) may impact industrial competitiveness. 2. Competitive Dynamics: Asia Pacific's lower labor- and production costs, coupled with its growing focus on renewable energy and technological innovation, could enhance its competitiveness compared to Europe. The region's diverse economies present varied challenges and opportunities for industrial sectors, with some countries emerging as leaders in specific industries key to the energy transition (e.g., electronics in South Korea and Taiwan, robotics in Japan, and manufacturing in China). 3. Policy Initiatives: Governments in the Asia Pacific region are implementing policies to support industrial growth while addressing environmental concerns. These policies include incentives for renewable energy adoption, investment in infrastructure, and regulatory frameworks to promote sustainable practices. Similarly, discussions on carbon pricing mechanisms and carbon border adjustments are emerging in some countries, reflecting global trends towards decarbonization and environmental sustainability. Overall, while Europe faces specific challenges in maintaining industrial competitiveness, the Asia Pacific region presents a dynamic landscape with its own set of opportunities and obstacles. Both regions are navigating the transition towards greener and more sustainable industrial practices, albeit with different contexts and priorities.

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**Austria forming committee to examine OMV-Gazprom contract** Austria will form a committee to examine the long-term gas supply contract between OMV and Gazprom, including the political situation when the contract was extended until 2040 back in 2018. "The dependence on Russian gas supplies remains a major threat to our energy supply. We must derive two things from this fact: promote independence and learn from the mistakes of the past," said Climate Protection Minister Leonore Gewessler, who sees a responsibility to "do better in the future," to which the Commission should contribute. The ministry has previously said that it will examine ways in which it could end the contract early, in order to reduce dependence on Russian gas. In May, Russian gas made up 90% of imports, as the German storage levy continues to make imports from north-west Europe uneconomic in comparison to Russian gas. #gas #Austria #OMV #Russia #Gazprom #trading #CEE #supply #demand #contract

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