Igor Buinevici

$100 invested in our equity fund in Nov 2012 was worth $255 in April 2024 while $100 in BIST100 Total Return was 107, due to many heavy devaluation of Turkish Lira in the last decade. Since inception on 12 Nov 2012, annualized $ return of our Fund is 8.5% vs 0.6% in BIST100 TR. Last 5 years, annualized $ return of our Fund is 30.0% vs 17.7% in BIST100 TR. Last 3 years, annualized $ return of our Fund is 38.5% vs 25.9% in BIST100 TR. We think Turkish Lira and stocks will continue to perform well thanks to return to rational monetary policy, to be followed soon by rational fiscal policies. The outcome of local elections has made it all but mandatory to follow rational policies after many years of economic mismanagement.

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Here's a good amalgamation of a list of key contacts for those seeking VC, angel and PE fund investors.

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Given their more-than-theefold increase in profits booked in Russia alone in 2023, compared with both 2020 and 2021 (from under EUR 1bn to over EUR 3bn), it is no wonder that several large European banks have been struggling to exit the Russian market. It is not only for lack of wanting, however. Since Aug 2022, corporate exits by foreign owners of Russian banks and so-called "fuel-energy complex" (TEK) companies have been subordinated to prior approval by the Russian presidency. In Oct 2022, a list of 45 banks requiring such approval was published. On the banking front, Société Générale quickly sold off its Rosbank unit before the above restrictions kicked in. HSBC, on the contrary, went through the whole authorization process initiated in 2022 and concluded only in Q1 2024. Others, like Citi, found themselves unable to pull off a successful exit and preferred to sell off specific assets separately, such as Citibank Russia's consumer loan portfolio (disposed of in Dec 2022) and credit card business (May 2023). *** PS The following paragraph from the article is not entirely accurate: "Western lenders have benefited from the imposition of sanctions on most of the Russian financial sector, which has denied access to the Swift international interbank payment system." Only two handfuls of Russian banks have been formally de-SWIFT'd (by the EU which has jurisdiction over Belgium-based SWIFT). I leave aside the question of potential (to be italicized) US secondary sanctions' impact on OFAC-sanctioned, EU-sanctions-free Russian banks - it merits an in-depth discussion. Also, the Russian financial sector is not subject to any blanket western sanctions of any kind, at least for now.

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Republic Bank failed yesterday and was acquired by Fulton Financial. Lets take a look at their Capital Adequacy Ratio and Liquidity coverage ratio: **Basel 3 capital ratio minimum requirement: 10.5% including conservation buffer -Republic Bank Capital Ratio: CET 1: 9.26%; Tier 1 Capital: 11.21% -Deduct 200 Basis points for miscalculations on assets: CET 1: 7.26%; Tier 1 Capital: 9.21% Liquidity Coverage Ratio (More important than Capital Ratio) -They've never disclosed it. It actually says N/A since 2019. Red flag! The writing was on the wall. It began with the discontinuation of annual reports in 2022. In summary, whether you're a depositor or an investor, it's crucial to recognize signs of stress at the bank level. Additionally, when overseeing other people's finances, it's essential to account for banking risks. #RepublicBank #BankFailures #FDIC Sources: 1) https://lnkd.in/enP7Qf72 2) https://lnkd.in/eztB6qGN

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Know the daily updates on Global Economy 📰💡

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So let me get this right. TESLA saw a remarkable +54% surge in the past month, propelling its Market Cap to $825 Billion, surpassing Novo Nordosk (the biggest European Company) that sits at $635 Billion. The surprising part? The surge wasn't driven by any fantastic or unexpected news (like RIVIAN that saw a $5 Bil inection and partnership with Volkswagen) but rather by revised upward car deliveries (which is still expected to be negative YoY) and shrinking margins. This situations is nothing more than Behavioral Finance in action, with investors fueling the climb on the idea that tomorrow morning there will be somebody else who is gonna bid at higher price for Tesla shares. Till there won't. #Tesla #StockMarket #Investing #trading #behavioralfinance #markets #easymoney

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Dr. Glenn Diesen, #Economist Russia is now the 4th largest economy in the world (PPP), which suggests a successful decoupling from the #West: - For 300 years (since Peter the Great), Russia looked to the #West for modernization and economic integration - After the Western-backed coup in 2014, to make #Ukraine a frontline rather than a bridge, Russia abandoned its Western-centric #foreignpolicy - Switching from Greater Europe to the Greater #Eurasia Initiative entails pursuing economic connectivity primarily with the East: #Technology, #naturalresources, #industries, #transportation corridors, #banks, #payment systems, #insurance, #currencies etc. - While #Western leaders speak about expanding a military bloc, defeating Russia on the battlefield, destroying its economy, regime change, dismantling the country - the more economically dynamic and friendly East is accommodating #Russia - Perhaps it is time to rethink our decision after the Cold War to redivide #Europe, and gradually push militarised dividing lines toward Russian borders. Was this a recipe for peace? Does this enhance our security, our economy, our political influence in the world? - Perhaps it is time to restart diplomacy and look for post-hegemonic ways to peacefully coexist (without surrounding #Russia with #NATO military infrastructure)?

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June 04, 2024 Recent Eurozone Inflation Data Raises Concerns About Lagarde's Policy Stance EU Statistics Office data reveals a 0.2 percentage point rise in both headline and core (excluding energy and food) inflation in May 2024. According to analysts, this month's headline inflation exceeded expectations and surpassed the forecast range of a 0.1 percentage point increase. However, policymakers are concerned about whether Christine Lagarde will deviate from her June policy stance given the renewed upward trend in inflation. Lagarde Unlikely to Reverse Course Headline inflation in the eurozone, which had been stagnant at 2.4% for the past two months, rose 0.2 percentage points to 2.6% in May. A similar increase was observed in core inflation, which rose from 2.7% to 2.9% during the same period. Despite concerns about inflation's resurgence, policymakers are focusing on the implications of this data for Lagarde's actions. Inflation Signal a Negative Christine Lagarde, the president of the European Central Bank (ECB), has expressed her intention to lower interest rates in June, signaling a shift in European monetary policy on June 6th. This inflation report comes as policymakers prepare to lower the policy interest rate for the first time since 2019. Any deviation from Lagarde's plan could once again plunge other economic sectors into recession. For instance, consider first-quarter 2024 GDP growth, which was around 0.3% and marked a return to positive territory after two previous quarters of negative growth (-0.1% in Q3 and Q4 2023), which technically indicates a recession. Lagarde Less Likely to Abandon Expansionary Policies As a result, the likelihood of Lagarde abandoning the start of expansionary policies to combat inflation has diminished. However, these figures have cast doubt on the ECB's policy outlook. Some policymakers believe the ECB will raise interest rates on the aforementioned date, June 6th, citing the recent emergence of the economy from recession and the exit of eurozone countries from contractionary territory. This implies that Lagarde intends to act ahead of the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve. It is anticipated that the Bank of England will follow suit by lowering interest rates, followed by the United States, the world's largest economy. Undoubtedly, Lagarde's decision to lower interest rates as the first central bank in the world will have repercussions.

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France = Italy= Spain = Belgium = Slovakia < Greece and Portugal…. You know what to short…

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Building on Aalto Capital's previous exploration of the IT Services sector in Europe, which revealed a significant discount at which smaller-cap stocks trade compared to their larger counterparts, we delve into another critical metric: trading turnover. The analysis below focuses on trading turnover, calculated by dividing the median daily trading volume by the shares outstanding over the past year in the European IT Services sector. Our findings indicate a substantial disparity in trading turnover between small-cap vs large-cap stocks. This difference in trading turnover can lead to mispricing of shares, driven by reduced interest from institutional investors and limited market liquidity. With fewer transactions, share prices may fail to accurately reflect the underlying company value, potentially presenting opportunities for astute investors to capitalise on undervalued assets or for strategic acquirers to identify targets for value creation. Moreover, low trading activity can pose challenges for current shareholders who may find themselves unable to sell their shares due to illiquidity. This frustration among shareholders may escalate, particularly if they seek an exit strategy but are hindered by the constraints of low trading volumes. As companies navigate the complexities of low trading turnover, proactive measures to enhance market liquidity and shareholder engagement become imperative. Transparent communication with shareholders and strategic initiatives aimed at improving market visibility can help mitigate the risks associated with limited trading activity and unlock shareholder value. #TradingTurnover #CapitalMarkets #InvestmentBanking

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🌍🚀 EU to reduce EUA auction volume by around 267 million allowances between September 2024 and August 2025, which will be placed in the Market Stability Reserve (MSR). The TNAC indicator plays a pivotal role in the functioning of the MSR of the EU Emissions Trading System (EU-ETS). It determines whether allowances are withdrawn or released from the MSR, impacting the overall carbon market dynamics. 🔄 This marks the first Communication on the TNAC since significant amendments under the ‘Fit for 55’ legislative package and the REPowerEU Regulation in February 2023, as part of the EU’s response to the energy crisis. 📉 Under the MSR Decision, if allowances exceed 1.096 billion, 24% are placed in reserve, reducing the volume of allowances Member States auction. Based on the published TNAC indicator, 266,816,768 allowances will be placed in the MSR from 1 September 2024 to 31 August 2025. ❗ From 2023 onwards, any allowances in the MSR above 400 million are invalid. As per the REPowerEU Regulation, 27 million allowances were allocated to the Innovation Fund. Consequently, 381,744,844 allowances became invalid on 1 January 2024. #ClimateAction #CarbonMarket #EUETS #Sustainability #Fitfor55 #REPowerEU https://lnkd.in/euACFra8

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Welcome to DIANANCE AI start-up Mistral in talks to raise €500mn at €5bn valuation. Subsidy race with US and China would harm Europe’s ailing economy, IMF warns. Oil market shrugs off Israeli strikes on Iran. Investors are hoping Big Tech earnings next week could revive a flagging bull market. King Dollar Risks Becoming Greenback the Bully. Source: https://lnkd.in/egbmhWjB https://on.ft.com/3w5Wey4 https://lnkd.in/egVRu_5s https://on.ft.com/3W5q2FB https://on.ft.com/49HUXLw #MistralAI #AIStartup #EuropeanTech #IMFWarning #OilMarket #IsraeliStrikes #BigTechEarnings #StrongDollar #GlobalEconomy #TechInvestment #FrenchStartups #EuropeanTechScene #AIIndustry #EconomicCompetition #GlobalMarkets

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This morning, severe #market #reactions to #French #European #election news from last night were unequivocal: Major French stock index down. French government bond yields up, the Euro down against major currencies. This is hardly mentioned in mainstream French news. The main rhetoric of the far right is to restrict "immigration and crime". Several studies across many countries have long established that when correcting for biases, there is no statistical link between immigration and crime. Arnaud Philippe and Jerome Valette who have published the report below in French have also published related research in the Journal of Political Economy, a top economics journal linked to the University of Chicago, and the Journal of Economic Geography, respectively. https://lnkd.in/eMABNsQk Notable studies also show that when media systematically mention the country of origin of criminals (including local nationals), citizens become more positive about immigration. If you want to read economics references on immigration from great US-based economists, here are a few: https://lnkd.in/ercms3Yu https://lnkd.in/eYWVyDrb https://lnkd.in/eN3bhViJ https://lnkd.in/ediMNgmf #statistics #economics #finance #politics #France

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Europe, in three words: Lack of Ambition! My latest blog on the simple reasons why Europe is falling behind. For example, Europe houses only two of the 20 biggest listed companies in the world. The link to the blog: https://lnkd.in/dxRzKFcP

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At this stage the speed of improvements (short timeframes) and the multiples are just mindblowing. GTP Turbo release date: November 23 GTPo release: May 24 2 x speed 0.5 x cost 5 x message limits Next time you think "it's not yet there" or "this will take time" think better and fasten those seatbelts! Just as an example to understand: 2xfaster every six months would mean 1024 (yes 1024) times faster in a 5 years span. what a time to be alive

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