By Robert J. Bunker and David A. Kuhn, C/O Futures, LLC

This short I&W (Indications & Warning) Note is meant to provide a ‘heads up’ concerning the recent appearance of drone IED bomblets in the Mexican crime wars and their early utilization by the Cártel de Jalisco Nueva Generación (CJNG) – one of the most dominant and operationally advanced cartels in the country.

In the recent book Criminal Drone Evolution: Cartel Weaponization of Aerial IEDs (SWJ–El Centro Anthology, Oct. 2021), we discussed the initial shift from single use (point IED detonation) drones in 2017 to multi-use (aerial bombardment) drones in 2021. Some confusion and debate existed concerning the potentials of such a shift when it was first reported in various news outlets. These reports began to circulate concerning the 20 April 2021 Aguililla, Michoacán incident in which two police officers were injured by a weaponized drone. The use of potential IED bomblets was also mentioned related to a 4 May 2021 Tepalcatepec, Michoacán incident as well as later non- specific incidents in which villagers were being targeted and terrorized by CJNG drone aerial bombardments.

The reports could not be initially substantiated, however, because the sourcing and images being attributed to the incidents/aerial bombardment capability could not be properly vetted or, in some instances, the items were clearly not Mexican cartel related hardware. Even now, it is still unclear whether the Aguililla and Tepalcatepec incidents were point IED detonation or aerial bombardment drone attacks. What has since been confirmed, however, is that CJNG is now deploying IED bomblets on consumer drones.

Four incidents (i.e., data points) – from Peribán, Mazamitla, Tecalitlán, and Tepalcatepec – are briefly highlighted to provide some basic information and imagery related to this emerging Mexican cartel capability:

Peribán, Michoacán (2 March 2021)
The imagery originated in an official SSP Michoacán tweet related to a seized truck containing 4 assault rifles (AK, other series), 38 magazines, numerous small arms rounds, and the 7 IED bomblets (simply designated as generic explosive devices). A limited firefight had taken place in the vicinity of Peribán between the occupants of the truck and Mexican National Guard and Army personnel. The cartel gunmen (presumably CJNG) fled the scene and left behind the abandoned truck which was secured by Mexican authorities.

Image 1: 7 IED Bomblets Seized in Peribán. Source: Secretaría de Seguridad Pública del Estado de Michoacán (SSP Michoacán).

The seven bomblets that are shown in Image 1 represent the most sophisticated improvised drone release munitions that have been encountered during any seizure to date. The main bodies appear to be constructed using a cast iron alloy, the fragmentation section lines of which were cast into the sleeves during production. The irregularities and offsets in the fragmentation patterns of these bomblets do not indicate that any machining process was used other than general finishing.

The format of these fragmentation bodies bears a passing resemblance to the type of cylindrical fragmentation sleeve that is found in certain European stake mines and a close resemblance to the Chilean Metalnor defensive hand grenade that is shown in Photograph: P-1 and may have been patterned after it. These improvised fragmentation sleeves, however, are slightly narrower in diameter, greater in length, and with the fragment sizes varying in alternate rows. If these bomblets contain a high-explosive payload, as is believed to be the case, the format of each of these seven would be unusually hazardous to ground personnel within a wide casualty radius of the point of detonation.

Improvised fragmentation sleeves.

Attached to five of the seven bomblet bodies are split (key) rings that are positioned at the C/G (center of gravity) balance point and attached with nylon tie straps around the bomblet. These rings would be attached to a release mechanism (one or more) on the drone.

One very interesting component of these bomblets is the format of the fin assemblies. They are fabricated from 4mm high-density corrugated polypropylene sheet. A sample of this type of material is shown in Photographs: P-2 and P-2A. This material is comparable in weight to corrugated cardboard, but is significantly stronger and is waterproof. The fin assemblies have been attached to the bodies using a moldable epoxy. The C/G location on these bomblets indicates that there is no additional structural metal under the epoxy where the fin sections are attached to the bodies.

Fin assemblies are fabricated from 4mm high-density corrugated polypropylene sheet.

The reader will note that the fin assemblies on the seized bomblets in the photograph vary in color from translucent to white and black. This type of corrugated polypropylene is widely available in groups of small sheets and in a variety of colors. It is possible that the makers are using this as a color coding to identify either the payload, the type of fuzing, or both. The color coding may also represent different grades of high-explosives indicating that these bomblets could be prototypes that have been prepared for performance testing.

Certain features pertaining to the bomblet bodies, and particularly the improvised fin assemblies, indicate that the makers are receiving skilled technical assistance during production.

Mazamitla, Jalisco (9 September 2021)
The imagery was released on Ejército Mexicano (SEDENA; Mexican Army) and Fiscalía General de la República (FGR) social media. An incident took place in the 15th Military Zone between Mexican army (SEDENA) and National Guard (Guardia Nacional) personnel and Cártel de Jalisco Nueva Generación forces near Mazamitla. As an outcome of the engagement, 6 vehicles, 4 improvised mortars, 37 IEDs, 3 helmets, 2-3 tactical vests, a possible base plate and a machine gun mount, and a number of small arms rounds were seized. While much of the interest in the incident has focused on the CJNG improvised mortars seized by Mexican authorities (as well as improvised mortar rounds – designated as generic IEDs), the existence of IED bomblets in the weapons cache recovered (See Rows 1 & 3 in Image 2) has been pretty much overlooked. The assumption has been that all of the munitions seized are simply improvised mortar rounds.

The front and rear row of improvised IED munitions in Image No. 2 have been identified as aerial drone bomblets. The rear row of bomblets has been assembled using two different methods of body construction. Thirteen of the seventeen units appear to have bodies fabricated from threaded water pipe nipples and pipe caps in two different sizes: 1-1/4” and 1-inch diameters (or their metric equivalents). The four bodies at the far left have not presently been identified. The bomblets in this rear row are in various stages of assembly; some without pipe caps and some without fin sections. It appears that the makers are using an ample amount of Teflon tape on the pipe threads to achieve a smooth engagement during assembly, and possibly to weather-proof the joints.

Image 2: Numerous IED Bomblets (Rows 1 & 3) and Mortar Shells (Row 2) Seized in Mazamitla.
Source: Fiscalía General de la República (FGR).

The six bomblets in the front row appear to be fully assembled. The reader will note that the majority of fin assemblies on both rows of bomblets appear to have significant damage. It is very possible that all of the bomblets in the front and rear rows are being used in repetitive tests; and that the fin assemblies have been salvaged several times for reuse. This would also indicate that the type of testing most likely involves payload/detonator performance, as any accuracy testing would require the fins to be free of aerodynamic flaws.

Tecalitlán, Jalisco (2 November 2021)
This incident took place in Tecalitlán and resulted in patrolling Secretaría de Defensa Nacional (SEDENA) forces securing a large weapons and munitions cache attributed to the CJNG (given where it was discovered). The imagery was released by SEDENA to the US Department of Homeland Security (DHS) in a ‘for public distribution’ notification. It was part of a larger seizure including “four 2×16 sticks of emulsion explosives, 7 IEDs, 19 tactical vests, 1,123 rounds of ammunition, 1 AK-47 rifle, 27 helmets, 11 clips (mags), and 350 link pieces for a 50-cal rifle.” ^[1] Once again, the IED bomblets were designated as ‘generic IEDs’ in both the Spanish and English reports pertaining to the seizure.

The bomblets in Image 3 appear to be constructed of one-inch diameter water threaded pipe nipples (or the closest metric pipe equivalent: 32 mm). The pipe sections are sealed on both ends for confinement. The forward section is sealed with a threaded conventional pipe cap that is shown in the enhanced close-up photograph below the main image. The fuze section that is mounted on the pipe cap is likely to be an improvised contact detonating fuze; however, beyond that, nothing can be positively determined from the photograph.

Image 3: 7 IED Bomblets and 4 Sticks of Emulsion Explosives Seized in Tecalitlán.
Source: Secretaría de Defensa Nacional (SEDENA).

The fin sections are rather unique, as they appear to be constructed from light weight mechanical tubing sections that have been cut longitudinally and positioned back-to-back on their apex of their circumference. They have also been inserted into a pre-cut metal component that is attached to the main body. This component, while not positively identified, may be an aluminum fence post cap that was modified for the purpose. The body assemblies have been wrapped in some type of plastic sheet, possibly to waterproof the fuze sections. There is also a chain (double-loop wire formed) that is visible over one of the bomblet fin sections (bottom of the image) that is likely to be the stand-off link for attachment to a drone pylon.

It does not outwardly appear that the bomblets are designed to fragmentate; however, there may be internal attributes within the bodies that are not apparent. While the destructive force of these particular devices may be somewhat limited due to size, the physiological effect from a surprise attack, or repetitive attacks, could be quite substantial.^[2]

Tepalcatepec, Michoacán (22 September 2021)
The final incident is not a drone IED bomblets seizure by Mexican security forces, but rather screen shots taken from a Cártel de Jalisco Nueva Generación video posted on their social media. It represents the first known posting of a Mexican cartel drone engaging in an aerial bombardment operation. The incident took place in Tepalcatepec and can be considered a propaganda/psychological operations (PSYOPS) video directed at the inhabitants of the region – linked to local militias and the Cárteles Unidos – who are defending against ongoing CJNG offensives seeking territorial control over the local villages and towns. The video portrays the aerial bombardment of a targeted building and is somewhat reminiscent of Islamic State propaganda videos from the 2015-2017 period in Iraq and Syria (although those were usually focused on opposing troop formations and AFVs).

Image 4: Drone Video Screen Shots of a Targeted Building in Tepalcatepec. Source: Cártel de Jalisco Nueva Generación (Social Media).

CONCLUSION

Derived from our understanding of past terrorist and criminal armed group evolutionary weaponry patterns of use, three phases of CJNG IED bomblet development – with expected overlaps – will likely ensue. The initial phase was briefly based on artisanal machine tooled bomblets (imagery not provided in this I&W Note) filled with explosives. These initial bomblets, of which possibly two versions exist dating back to spring 2021, were too time consuming to create and required a certain level of metal working skills and tooling.

The second phase – which Images 1-3 pertain to – represents an attempt by CJNG to create IED bomblets more quickly from local materials at hand, using defensive (fragmentation) grenade bodies, pipe-bomb/cardboard like casings, and emulsion explosives in pipe-casings and waterproof wraps mated to stabilization fins. While more primitive looking than phase one bomblets, they are more practical in their design and functioning. The expectation is that many diverse IED bomblet forms will be encountered as CJNG weaponeers work out how best to create these munitions.

The third phase of IED bomblet development will likely see the utilization of military grade rifle grenades (20-40mm … M203, GP-30s series, et al.) which have had their arming safety features bypassed. They will be secured to a plastic, metal, or even wooden, tail fin assembly for stabilization purposes and will likely follow the pattern of earlier Islamic State progression, though no direct interactions – technology transference – between that terrorist group and the Mexican cartels (specifically CJNG) exists.^[3] If or when this phase is reached, it will signify that the cartels are beginning to shift from experimental (entrepreneurial) drone aerial bombardment utilization into more institutionalized use patterns. The danger of this ‘firebreak’ being crossed is that then drone weaponization can more quickly spread to additional CJNG operational units as well as other opposing cartels in Mexico. ■

ENDNOTES

“Mexico: IEDs, Commercial Explosives Discovered in Cache.” TRIP wire. 3 November 2021.
See the ‘Image Documentation and IED Body Segment Scan’ in Robert J. Bunker and David A. Kuhn, “CJNG Drone IED Bomblets Seized by SEDENA in Tecalitlán, Jalisco.” C/O Futures Cartel Research Note Series. Claremont: 11 November 2021: 1-7.
A similar process is taking place with CJNG’s approach to IED bomblet release mechanisms carried by their drones.

FURTHER READING

Robert J. Bunker and John P. Sullivan, Eds., Criminal Drone Evolution: Cartel Weaponization of Aerial IEDs. Bloomington: Xlibris 2021: 1-302.

Robert J. Bunker, John P. Sullivan, and David A. Kuhn, “Use of Weaponized Consumer Drones in Mexican Crime War.” Counter-IED Report. Winter 2020/21: 69-77.

ABOUT THE AUTHORS

Dr. Robert J. Bunker is the Director of Research and Analysis of C/O Futures, LLC (www.cofutures.net) and a Senior Fellow with Small Wars Journal-El Centro. An international security and counterterrorism professional, he was Futurist in Residence at the Behavioral Science Unit (BSU) at the Federal Bureau of Investigation Academy in Quantico, VA, Minerva Chair at the Strategic Studies Institute (SSI) of the U.S. Army War College, Carlisle, PA, and has taught at Claremont Graduate University, the University of Southern California, and with other universities. Dr. Bunker holds degrees in the fields of history, anthropology-geography, social science, behavioral science, government, and political science and has trained extensively in counterterrorism and counternarcotics. He has delivered hundreds of presentations – including U.S. congressional testimony – with well over 500 publications across various fields and formats.
Email: docbunker@cofutures.net

David A. Kuhn is an Associate with C/O Futures, LLC (www.cofutures.net) and is a frequent Small Wars Journal-El Centro contributor. He is a subject matter expert in analysis, technical instruction, and terrorism response training related to stand off weaponry (MANPADS, threat, interdiction, aircraft survivability, et. al), infantry weapons, small arms, IED/ VBIEDs, WMD, and other threat and allied use technologies. He is presently the principal of VTAC Training Solutions and has career-long experience in supporting governmental operations and corporate initiatives in the fields of homeland security, vulnerability assessment, technical operations, and project management, with additional focus and expertise in areas involving facility threat/risk assessments, underwater operations, and varied engineering technologies.

Download PDF: Robert Bunker and David Kuhn article – COUNTER-IED REPORT, Winter 2021-22