Following Joe Biden’s debate performance two weeks ago, many Democrats’ concerns turned not to whether the president would win reelection — a diminishing prospect — but if he would drag down-ballot Democrats down with him.
Among the trifecta of the House, Senate and White House, the upper chamber has long been in the most peril. Democrats hold a 51-49 majority, but with the open West Virginia seat expected to easily flip from blue to red, the Senate battle effectively starts out at 50-50.
So one fundamental truth is becoming even more glaringly obvious for Senate Democrats as holding the presidency becomes less likely: there is essentially no path to keeping their Senate majority unless Biden wins reelection. If former President Donald Trump wins, his vice president would break a tie.
Thus, even if every vulnerable Senate Democrat wins reelection, it wouldn’t be enough to keep their majority intact. Democrats still point to long-shot chances to flip GOP-held seats in Texas and Florida (we rate both as Likely Republican), but if Biden craters nationally such a scenario seems fantastical.
Democrats already
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