Four days in Asia. That’s all President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia needed to anger Washington, undermine Beijing and rattle a collection of Indo-Pacific nations already scrambling to cope with a jumbled world order.

四天的亞洲之行。俄羅斯總統普丁僅用四天就激怒了華盛頓，削弱了北京的影響力，並且讓一些已經手忙腳亂應對混亂世界秩序的印太地區國家緊張不已。

After stops in Pyongyang and Hanoi this week that were draped in Communist red, Mr. Putin left behind a redrawn map of risk in Asia. North Korea sat at the center: a rogue nuclear state that regularly threatens its neighbors, suddenly empowered by Russian promises of sophisticated military aid and a mutual defense pact.

在本週訪問了紅色共產主義之都平壤跟河內後，普丁留下了一張重新繪製的亞洲風險地圖。位於地圖中心的是朝鮮：一個經常威脅鄰國的無賴核國家，突然因俄羅斯承諾提供尖端軍事援助和簽訂共同防禦條約而氣勢大漲。

Mr. Putin also signed at least a dozen deals with Vietnam — a country of growing importance for both China and the United States as they vie for influence — where he insisted that “reliable security architecture” could not be built with “closed military-political blocs.”

普丁還與越南簽署了至少十幾份協議——在中美兩國爭奪影響力之際，越南對它們的重要性與日俱增——他堅持認為，「封閉的軍事政治集團」無法建立「可靠的安全架構」。

The trip was both defiant and disruptive. It showed that the jockeying for power sometimes framed as a new Cold War between the United States and China is less binary than it might seem, and many countries in the region seemed to emerge from the week with a deeper sense of unease.

這次訪問既是挑釁性的，也是破壞性的。它表明，有時被稱為中美新「冷戰」的權力爭奪並不像看上去那般二元對立，而且該地區許多國家似乎在這一週之後感受到了更深的不安。

Mr. Putin’s presence and his threats, bold one minute, vague the next, have added even more complexity to their already difficult calculations around security and Great Power competition.

普丁的來訪，以及他時而肆無忌憚、時而含糊其辭的威脅使得這些國家在圍繞安全和大國競爭方面已經不容易的算計變得更加複雜。

Over the past few years, the Indo-Pacific has been knocked around by a geopolitical shoving match between the United States and China, primarily over China’s claims on Taiwan, and increasingly over heightened Chinese militarization in the South China Sea.

在過去幾年裡，主要圍繞中國對台灣的主權要求，以及中國在南中國海的軍事化程度日益加劇等問題，印太地區一直深受美中地緣政治角力的影響。

In May, China launched two days of intense navy and air force drills around Taiwan in what it called a form of “strong punishment.” The exercises came after Taiwan’s new president pledged to defend the sovereignty of the self-governing island that Beijing sees as lost territory.

今年5月，中國在台灣周邊進行了為期兩天的海軍和空軍密集演習，並稱之為「嚴厲懲戒」。軍演是在台灣新總統承諾捍衛該自治島嶼的主權之後舉行的，北京視台灣為脫離在外的領土。

Just this week, another flashpoint — the South China Sea — edged closer to conflict. After months of bitter standoffs in the middle of a turquoise choke point for global trade, a Philippine Navy sailor was injured Monday after ships from China and the Philippines collided near a disputed archipelago. Widening the potential ramifications, the Philippines is an ally the United States is treaty-bound to help in case of war.

就在上週，另一個易燃點——南中國海——瀕臨衝突。在全球貿易的青藍色「咽喉」，經過數月的激烈對峙，中國和菲律賓的船隻週一在一個有爭議群島附近相撞，造成一名菲律賓海軍水兵受傷。根據條約，美國有義務在戰爭爆發的情況下幫助盟友菲律賓，這擴大了該事件的潛在影響。

Many countries in the region were already beefing up their militaries to deal with China’s pressure and the uncertainty over how far the rivalry between the United States and China might go.

該地區的許多國家已經在加強軍力，以應對來自中國的壓力，以及中美競爭可能發展到何種程度的不確定性。

Add to those concerns a wave of jitters in the region over the U.S. presidential election, not to mention a new report this month showing that China is in the midst of a “significant” expansion of its nuclear capabilities, and headaches have become common in the region’s foreign policy circles.

除了這些擔憂之外，美國總統大選也在該地區掀起了一股不安情緒，更不用說本月的一份新報告顯示中國正在「大幅」增強核能力一事了。對該地區的外交政策圈子來說，感到頭疼已經司空見慣。

Now Mr. Putin has induced a few more. With his embrace of North Korea, including his open threat to better arm Kim Jong-un’s military, he has effectively added another potential crisis to Asia’s list of concerns, reigniting old hostilities on the Korean Peninsula.

現在，普丁又製造了一些新的令人頭疼的問題。隨著他支持朝鮮，包括公開威脅要為金正恩的軍隊提供更強大的武器，他實際上給亞洲的關切事項列表上又增添了一個潛在危機，重新點燃了朝鮮半島的敵對情緒。

Officials in South Korea and Japan — North Korea’s avowed enemies — were especially alarmed. Both countries had already been talking about toughening their defenses and growing closer to the United States and each other, particularly since Mr. Kim’s rhetoric has become markedly more hostile toward them in recent months.

作為朝鮮的公開敵人，韓國和日本的官員尤為擔憂。這兩個國家已經在討論加強防禦，並加強了彼此之間以及與美國的合作，特別是金正恩的言論近幾個月明顯變得對它們更加敵視。

Rahm Emanuel, the U.S. ambassador to Japan, described Mr. Putin’s burst of activity in Asia as “your worst fears come true.”

按照美國駐日本大使拉姆·伊曼紐爾的說法，普丁在亞洲的活動是「你最擔心的事成真了」。

“What Russia just did is they told us they are going to be the principal organizers of rogue states that develop nuclear weapons, violate nonproliferation treaties, and allow countries under U.N. sanctions to get outside those sanctions,” he said.

他說：「俄羅斯剛剛做的就是告訴我們，它將成為那些發展核武器、違反不擴散條約的流氓國家的主要組織者，並且允許受聯合國制裁的國家擺脫制裁的影響。」

Peter Tesch, Australia’s ambassador in Moscow from 2016 to 2019, stressed that Mr. Putin favors keeping the world chaotic because he believes Russia benefits from keeping other countries off-kilter. Disinformation and partnerships with other provocateurs have become Putin doctrine.

2016年至2019年擔任澳洲駐莫斯科大使的彼得·特施強調，普丁樂於讓世界保持混亂，因為他認為俄羅斯可以從讓其他國家陷入混亂中獲益。虛假信息和與其他挑釁者合作已成為普丁的處事原則。

“He’s quite happy for Russia to be the smelliest, farting uncle at the barbecue,” Mr. Tesch said. “The signal is, ‘Yes I am a disrupter. I can act in ways that increase the complexity of what you’re trying to manage.’”

「他很樂意讓俄羅斯成為那個在大家一起烤肉的時候最臭、最愛放屁的大叔。」特施說。「他發出的信號是，『是的，我是搞破壞的。我能把你努力想管好的事情弄得更複雜。』」

China, North Korea’s largest trading partner and arguably its biggest influence, must also contend with the fallout. That could include pressure to clarify what its “no limits” friendship with Russia means for China’s stated goal of stability on the Korean Peninsula.

作為朝鮮最大的貿易夥伴，可以說對其擁有最大影響力的國家，中國也必須應對這些後果。這可能包括承受壓力，澄清中俄「無止境」友誼對其宣稱的穩定朝鮮半島的目標意味著什麼。

Some analysts suggest Mr. Putin had all of this in mind. He may have tightened the bond with Mr. Kim, who greeted him with hugs at the airport, to both scare the United States and signal frustration to China’s leader, Xi Jinping, for not doing more to help Russia win in Ukraine.

一些分析人士認為，普丁考慮到了這一切。他加強與金正恩的聯繫（後者在機場以擁抱��接他），這可能既是為了嚇唬美國，也是為了向中國領導人習近平表示不滿，因為習近平沒有採取更多行動幫助俄羅斯在烏克蘭取得勝利。

“If Putin cannot get everything he wants from Beijing, he will look to get it elsewhere, and there aren’t a lot of supermarkets that cover his wish list — arms, labor and a willingness to pick a fight with Washington,” said Samuel Greene, a professor of Russian politics at King’s College London. “Iran is one. North Korea is another.”

「如果普丁不能從北京得到他想要的一切，他就會試圖從其他地方得到，而能夠滿足他的願望清單（武器、勞動力、願意與華盛頓挑起爭端）的地方並不多，」倫敦國王學院俄羅斯政治學教授塞繆爾·格林說。「伊朗是一個。朝鮮是另一個。」

“The point is that, while Putin recognizes his dependency on China, he can’t afford to let Beijing dictate the course of the war effort — because as goes the war, so goes Putin.”

「問題在於，雖然普丁認識得到他對中國的依賴，但他不能讓北京主宰戰爭的進程，因為戰爭走向何方普丁就走向何方。」

To some degree, Mr. Putin’s trip to Asia was also a potent reminder of Russia’s historic military ties: North Korea, India, and Vietnam are just a few of the countries that have been heavily dependent on Russian hardware for decades, creating links in training and maintenance that keep Moscow deeply embedded in the region.

在某種程度上，普丁的亞洲之行也是對俄羅斯歷史性軍事聯繫的有力提醒：幾十年來，朝鮮、印度和越南等國一直嚴重依賴俄羅斯的武器裝備，形成了訓練和維護方面的聯繫，使莫斯科深深紮根於該地區。

But even before Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, those ties were fraying: Russia’s arms sales to Southeast Asia dropped to $89 million in 2021, down from $1.2 billion in 2014, according to independent studies. A clean break or even significant diversification is what Mr. Putin has sought to delay.

但是，即使在2022年俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭之前，這些關係就已經出現了鬆動：根據獨立研究，俄羅斯對東南亞的軍售從2014年的12億美元降至2021年的8900萬美元。普丁一直試圖推遲這些關係的中斷，抑或出現大幅多元化。

And if Mr. Putin’s gestures toward North Korea do end up fueling an arms race in Asia, Moscow also stands to gain: Weapons from Russia do not just intensify the risk of chaos when shared with a country like North Korea. They also bring in revenue, much needed for a Russian economy that has been squeezed by sanctions, war, inflation and 16 percent interest rates.

如果普丁對朝鮮的姿態最終助長了亞洲的軍備競賽，莫斯科也將從中獲益：與朝鮮這樣的國家共享俄羅斯武器不僅會加劇混亂的風險，還能帶來收入，而這正是受制裁、戰爭、通貨膨脹和16%利率所困擾的俄羅斯經濟所急需的。

Mr. Putin’s visit to Hanoi focused on deals. The full scope of what was agreed is not clear, but analysts predicted that some would probably emerge later as defense-related, with financing devised to skirt international sanctions — possibly with payment in the form of oil and gas rights in the South China Sea.

普丁此次河內之行的重點是達成協議。目前尚不清楚達成的全部內容，但分析人士預測，其中一些協議可能日後會被證明與國防有關，其融資設計可以規避國際制裁——可能會以南中國海的石油和天然氣開採權的形式進行支付。

“Vietnam hasn’t made a major upgrade to its land forces in years, but supposedly that’s coming,” said Derek Grossman, a senior defense analyst at Rand. “You may see Vietnam purchase new Russian tanks.”

「越南多年來一直沒有對陸軍進行重大升級，但據說這種升級即將到來，」蘭德公司高級防務分析師德里克·格羅斯曼表示。「你可能會看到越南購買新的俄羅斯坦克。」

Nguyen The Phuong, who studies Vietnam’s military affairs at the University of New South Wales in Australia, said Vietnam also needs new fighter jets and bigger warships in line with what Beijing uses to mark territory that Hanoi also claims in the South China Sea.

澳洲新南威爾斯大學研究越南軍事事務的阮世芳（音）認為，越南還需要與北京的裝備相當的新戰鬥機和更大的軍艦，北京用它們來標示與越南存在爭議的南海領土。

He added that the high-stakes security dynamics in Asia have put countries like Vietnam in a bind. “Western weapons are expensive and politically sensitive,” he said.

他還指出，亞洲高風險的安全態勢已使越南等國陷入困境。「西方武器既昂貴又具有政治敏感性，」他說。

But would Vietnam use new Russian vessels to stand up to China over oil deposits explored with Moscow’s help and claimed by both Beijing and Hanoi?

但是，越南是否會利用新的俄羅斯設備來對抗中國，爭奪正在與莫斯科合作勘探、北京和河內都聲稱擁有的石油儲藏？

For many countries, the Putin tour has raised another round of such aggravating questions. Beijing has clearly sided with Moscow over the war in Ukraine. In May, Mr. Putin visited Beijing, and while his trip to North Korea may bother Mr. Xi, analysts do not expect a major rupture in the relationship.

對許多國家來說，普丁之行又提出了新一輪此類令人不快的問題。在烏克蘭戰爭問題上，北京顯然站在莫斯科一邊。普丁今年5月訪問了北京，雖然他的朝鮮之行可能會讓習近平感到不快，但分析人士預計兩國關係不會出現重大裂痕。

Angering one leader may risk punishment from another, or both.

激怒兩位領導人中的一個可能會招致另一人或兩人共同的懲罰。

“I think there’s some concern about Russia-China ties strengthening,” Mr. Grossman said, “and the potential for both countries to gang up on the smaller and medium-sized ones.”

「我認為，人們對中俄關係的加強有些擔憂，」羅斯曼表示。「擔心兩國有可能聯合起來對付中小國家。」

At a defense conference in Singapore this month, President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine said that was already happening. He accused China and Russia of colluding to undermine a peace summit in Switzerland led by Ukraine last week. Only a handful of Asian countries attended.

本月在新加坡舉行的一次防務會議上，烏克蘭總統澤連斯基表示，這種情況已經發生了。他指責中國和俄羅斯串通一氣，破壞上週由烏克蘭牽頭在瑞士舉行的和平峰會。只有少數幾個亞洲國家出席了該峰會。