Chen Zhao

Pakistan’s long steel sector has been facing troubles owing to higher inflation levels and dull demand from the construction sector for quite some time now. Recent financial results for Mughal Iron & Steel Ltd (MUGHAL) and Amreli Steels Ltd (ASTL) also mirror the subdued demand scenario. We reiterate our view that a return to normal demand levels would act as a positive catalyst for steel companies. Companies are anticipated to encounter ongoing challenges in the near term before experiencing a resurgence, potentially spurred by interest rate cuts injecting new life into long steel stocks. Moreover, as per the recent NTC notice, an extension has been granted in anti-dumping duties on steel bars from China. Continuation of these duties on Chinese Rebars benefits the local long steel industry by safeguarding against potential negative impacts on capacity utilization and market share.

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If you think portfolio risk management is just about diversification, think again. This article sheds light on some surprising strategies that challenge common perceptions. Here are some thought-provoking takeaways: - Did you know that reducing the number of investments in a portfolio can sometimes actually decrease risks? It's all about strategic selection. - Contrary to popular belief, actively managing risk doesn't necessarily mean more frequent trading. In fact, a hands-off approach can be a smart move. - One of the key points discussed is the importance of understanding the correlation between investments, a factor often overlooked in risk management strategies. - Asymmetric risk and the role it plays in portfolio management is explored, offering a fresh perspective on balancing risk and return. - Ever considered tail risk hedging? This article dives into this lesser-known strategy that can enhance risk management effectiveness. Share your thoughts and feelings on these unconventional risk management strategies. https://lnkd.in/ecgSpH93

Among the S&P/ASX Australian index suite, there's less awareness of the S&P/ASX 200 Ex-S&P/ASX 100 Index compared to other segments. The index offers similar risk-return characteristics to the S&P/ASX Small Ordinaries, with notable differences among company size metrics and liquidity profile. With this weeks launch of a futures contract on the ASX offering exposure to the S&P/ASX 200 Ex-S&P/ASX 100 TR (XJS), the segment can look forward to more interest from market participants. https://lnkd.in/gmDf5t6i #indices #asx #equities #smallcaps #midcaps #asfutures

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Thanks for having me Eagle Alpha team and for allowing me to share Vanda Research's tactical macro approach, as well as our latest insights on retail flows. #tacticalmacro #investing #retailflows #flowsandpositioning

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New Whitepaper from Caron's Corner: In this paper we discuss new management techniques required to capture higher returns in a higher inflation regime. A new market regime is upon us catalyzed by rising inflation risks. This presents a challenge to investors seeking to compound returns at target levels with stability because it increases correlation risks. Effectively, it pushes the efficient frontier inwards and reduces risk-adjusted return potential. In this paper, we explain how we counter this adverse impact to returns in this new regime through a new management approach with the goal of achieving stable target returns. https://mgstn.ly/3QNuw0f

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Market Update June 6, 2024: Key Indices and Commodities Here's a quick snapshot of today's market performance across various indices and commodities: TSX (Toronto Stock Exchange) Index Value: 22,229.10 Change: +0.38% S&P 500 Index Value: 5,352.96 Change: -0.02% DOW (Dow Jones Industrial Average) Index Value: 38,886.17 Change: +0.20% NASDAQ Index Value: 17,173.12 Change: -0.09% GOLD Price: 2,392.30 Change: +0.71% OIL Price: 75.54 Change: +1.98% DOLLAR (USD) Exchange Rate: 0.73 Change: +0.18% BTC (Bitcoin) Price: 96,633.30 Change: -0.69% #MarketUpdate #Finance #Investing #TSX #SP500 #DowJones #NASDAQ #Gold #Oil #USD #Bitcoin #EconomicTrends Stay informed on the latest market trends and performance. Follow for more updates!

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Great write-up of a note I sent to clients reacting to yesterday’s hot inflation figures by Innherji editor Hörður Ægisson: https://lnkd.in/gbQg89-i Inflation came in at 6.3% vs. consensus call for 5.9%. Although it’s genuinely concerning how broad based the overshoot was, I was at pains to point out that a single data point does not make a trend. My gut feeling is that this is a bump in the road rather than a genuine sign that disinflation is going off the rails. Much of the increase in the headline figure came down to base effects from shelter inflation, and I’m hoping that unexpected increases in food prices and airfares will partly reverse out of the figures in the coming months. But even though I’m not panicking about the print, it did illustrate two points I have been yakking about to clients for months: 1) When inflation rises above target and inflation expectations are loosely tethered, getting inflation back down by wringing out excess demand is a long and arduous process. The last mile can be painful, especially for a country like Iceland that’s not enjoying the benefits of energy base effects or other tailwinds like its European peers. Even if we continue making progress, don’t expect inflation to hit target anytime soon. 2) When inflation goes up, inflation volatility tends to go up with it. The way back to target is rarely monotonous and there are bumps along the way. This complicates policymaking, since it becomes challenging to separate the signal from the noise; even though a disinflation trend may become obvious in hindsight, it’s much harder to know in real time whether you’re making progress. This heightens the risk of policy errors where interest rates fall behind the curve. I’ve been using Iceland’s experience following its 2012 inflation shock as a template for the sort of trajectory we might see going forward, which illustrates both of those points nicely.

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Find out why natural capital investments are a "natural" fit for insurers and pension funds. Watch this roundtable on Asset TV. #NaturalCapital #ManulifeInvestmentManagement

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At the most recent FOMC meeting, central bank policy makers communicated that the string of recent firm inflation prints have not fundamentally changed their outlook for inflation or monetary policy. The credit markets are not pricing in a contraction of growth. Although headline pricing across most sectors of the fixed income market appear rich, beneath the surface a very different story exists across industries, capital structures and sectors. Read our specialty fixed income outlooks for the 2nd Quarter of 2024: https://bit.ly/4b8PEWt

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Cash returns are falling ahead of likely Fed rate cuts--but how low will they go? Portfolio Consultant Mark Cintolo examines how low they could go in the next couple of years if inflation is moderated or a growth scare occurs--and how all of this could push investors towards fixed income.

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For investors in artificial intelligence, it may be time to expand the approach. We recommend considering international companies and exploring potential opportunities across the value chain, including infrastructure, software and AI applications. Explore the difference between AI 1.0 and 2.0 as this game-changing technology continues to evolve. https://bit.ly/3UmG0tO. International investments may not be suitable for all investors. International investing involves a greater degree of risk and increased volatility. Changes in currency exchange rates and differences in accounting and taxation policies outside the U.S. can raise or lower returns. Some overseas markets may not be as politically and economically stable as the United States and other nations. Investments in international markets can be more volatile.

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Emerging markets can present unique challenges for investors when it comes to assessing ESG, including a lack of access to reliable data. We take a holistic approach and integrate ESG into each stage of our investment process - working in lockstep with BCI’s dedicated ESG experts to ensure both risks and opportunities are considered at the company, sector, and country levels.   I recently had the pleasure of speaking with AsianInvestor about this topic and how we leverage on-the-ground due diligence and collaborative engagement as part of our approach. Check out the article:

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Missing: Charismatic Fed Chairman  Reward: Market Stability  Get the scoop on Powell's testimony and bond forecasts in my latest BNN Bloomberg interview! As we approach the next set of inflation and labor market reports, we will get a clearer picture of future policy rates. If it wasn't clear before the testimony, it should be now: data, not Fed officials, are driving decisions. Fed Chairman Jay Powell's dull remarks and non-committal answers left even bond enthusiasts like me switching off the TV. Looking ahead, the US election and its market impact will become increasingly important. Although betting odds have shifted, we're not yet seeing the political changes reflected in trading. Developing an informed view now will be advantageous as this becomes a major focus for the bond market in the months ahead. Meanwhile, Canada is on a path to lower rates, with current data supporting a more prolonged rate-cutting cycle. As always thanks to Andrew and the BNN Bloomberg team for a great discussion and the opportunity to share our perspectives. https://lnkd.in/g2zrwxJX #BNNBloomberg #Fed #Powell #BoC

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MSO earnings season starts this week, with eight of the top ten US operators reporting. Consensus analyst expectations are for the top ten MSOs to show a Q/Q 2.62% contraction in revenue and adjusted EBITDA to decline 6.18%. (1/3) The top ten MSOs' Y/Y revenue is expected to grow by 3.20%, and AEBITDA is expected to expand by 17.30%. Analysts predict the highest Y/Y revenue growth for Ascend Wellness Holdings (CSE: AAWH.U / OTCQX:AAWH) at +22.40%, and Cresco Labs is predicted to have the best Y/Y improvement in AEBITDA at +62.00%. Finally, here are some of the companies reporting this week: May 7: Ascend Wellness Holdings (CSE: AAWH.U / OTCQX:AAWH) May 8: Green Thumb Industries (GTI), Verano, MariMed, Inc. May 9: Curaleaf, Trulieve, TerrAscend, Cannabist, Jushi Holdings Inc. Source: FactSet

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How is the shifting correlation between stocks and bonds challenging traditional portfolio strategies? Experts, including MFS Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Ward Brown, addressed how at the Fiduciary Investment Symposium in Toronto. Find out what they had to say about navigating this newfound fixed income landscape.

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Fixed income in 2024 - Lessons from History | Steven Friedman and Valentina Chen examine how asset allocators should consider the role of fixed income in their portfolios in 2024. Steve looks at the potential benefits but also analyzes three scenarios that present downside risks. https://bit.ly/440WKKe

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Over the past year, goods-producer earnings have lagged services while economic data has consistently fallen below forecasts. Recent reports also mark the weakest economic performance relative to expectations in five years, with significant disappointments from the Surveys and Business Cycle Indicators category. However, the outlook for earnings is improving, reflecting an upward trend in the ISM manufacturing index. Meanwhile, despite growing corporate profits and an expanding economy, banks are tightening lending policies. In the first quarter, more banks reported stricter lending standards for businesses, with weak demand for commercial loans. Learn more about these economic and market developments in the latest report from Frost Investment Advisors below. #TheFrostFeed #LinkedInFinance #Frost

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