Month: April 2024
Update on GBTS 2023 and VE attractions survey reminder
In last week’s update on the recently published Great Britain Tourism Statistics (GBTS) for 2023, covering domestic overnight stays, I aired some concern about the unexpected absence of any cross referencing to domestic outbound staying trips; information that had been routinely included prior to the post covid revamp of this annual survey’s methodology. Colleagues in VisitBritian/Visit England (VB/VE) have responded very quickly and provided a very helpful and positive response, the essence of which I am keen share with you.
The absence of reference to International Passenger Survey (IPS) derived outbound domestic trip data is, as I suspected, a pragmatic response to ongoing concerns and issue regarding the methodology and results of the also recently revamped IPS, which is now undergoing a formal review. The lack of domestic outbound detail is a temporary measure. Once the review of IPS is completed and any necessary tweaks to the new methodology are successfully made, reference to domestic outbound staying visits figures and commentary on them will be reintroduced to future GBTS annual (and quarterly update?) reports. Better still plans are in hand to expand this helpful bigger picture detail within GBTS to include other contextually relevant survey information, for example the Great British domestic day visitor survey (GBDVS). I am sure colleague will warmly welcome news of the proposed additions.
In due course post review, GBTS 2022 and 2023 are due to be revised and reissued. I think it is probably unreasonable to expect those revision to include additional data from other sources (they might?) but hopefully we could well see domestic outbound and day trip and other relevant surveys referenced in GBTS in 2025 I.E. in the report for 2024. Although we would probably all like to see the revised and expanded reports sooner rather than later, later is preferable if it guarantees that the new methodologies are robust and we can have appropriate levels of confidence in all future data provided.
The reference in the 2023 GBTS report that prompted my observations on lack of domestic outbound data that: “On the other hand, UK overnight stays as part of an overseas trip show an increase of 14% in Britain and 19% in England (implying an increase in outbound trips)” are seemingly supported by the 2023 IPS results. IPS shows an 18% increase on domestic outbound holiday trips and a 20% (unadjusted?) increase in spend for all purposes in 2023. Outbound trips for business, visiting friends and relatives (VFR) and miscellaneous purposes also show similar or larger increases between 2022 and 2023 and the average/total for all four categories of trip purpose was also 18%.
Notwithstanding ongoing concerns regarding the validity of some of the new IPS data, the apparent surge in outbound domestic holiday trips broadly reflects the perceptions gained in popular well-established domestic destinations and the view of the majority of their destination managers on the current balance of holiday trips and the recent worrying direction of travel. Yes, we would fully expect outbound domestic travel to recover towards and then go beyond 2019 levels at some point. Just as we would hope and expect domestic tourism to do much the same, preferably in parallel. Currently the concern relates to the apparent disparity in the pace and direction of the two now clearly competing markets. The apparent comparative decline in consecutive years in one against an increase in the other is a somewhat alarming trend, that needs to be interrogated, explained and better understood, so that we can ensure that the ubiquitous domestic tourism industry and the wider domestic visitor economy, that also underpin and provides the infrastructure for much of the inbound international market, is properly fostered in obviously changed but, I would argue, not yet properly understood circumstances. The apparent decline at home in 2023 may simply reflect an exceptionally good domestic post covid, 2022 year, but I and others suspect that far more complex dynamics are in play.
Our current assumptions are that not only is the domestic industry being hit by cost of living and other economic issues at home, it is also apparently being hit by direct competition for the tourism pound, with increasing numbers of UK residents seemingly prioritising a main, usually overseas holiday, over and above a domestic holidays, short breaks and other more routine spending within the domestic visitor economy (days/nights/eating/drinking out etc.). There is also anecdotal evidence suggesting many of those who would normally holiday at home are cutting back, particularly on spend or just aren’t holidaying as much or at all.
In the previously expanding leisure market, there was arguably plenty of room for both domestic and domestic outbound travel without one harming the other. In the more recent restricted or contacting leisure market it has become a major issue and one that at the very least deserves proper recognition, if not some serious, appropriate policy interventions. Step one is evidencing that there is an issue. In the absence of large well-funded representative bodies able to commission big hitting research, the normal starting point for that for the more disparate domestic industry is the figures and commentary from GBTS, IPS, GBDVS etc. Hence, my enthusiasm to see existing national data presented in a form that’s does much of the ground work and is easily understood and interpreted by all.
The relevant IPS data tables for outbound domestic trips can be found at: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/leisureandtourism/datasets/monthlyoverseastravelandtourismreferencetables . Annual volume in tab 4, line 70 and values in tab 5, also line 70 of the excel data sheet. If nothing else the potential difficulty of finding this raw data, let alone interpreting its true meaning and then drawing robust, conclusions unaided by technical experts, neatly demonstrates why it is so important that the national board partnership, who provide, either the data, the commentary or both, should routinely include cross referencing to such contextual data within the likes of GBTS and why, in particularly, the vast majority of lay users should be so grateful that they continue to undertake this vital service for us.
On a different but related matter I understand that the deadline for responses to the VE annual attractions survey is looming and that VE is understandably keen to ensure that all participants in this important survey submit response and preferably on time, in order to allow a sufficiently large sample to be analysed and a report issued at the earliest opportunity. Although the survey covers England the findings are I think generally relevant to the attractions industry across the UK/GB and therefore important to all destination management interests.
If you are or know a participating attraction, please can you encourage the completion and return of the survey. We are all busy people; however, the strategic and operational value of the survey and, thus, the value of the individual contributions made to it can’t be overstated. In slower time destination managers in England may wish to discuss the potential value and opportunities of joining the survey panel in future years. I am happy to put any appropriate attraction in touch, or you can go directly to colleague in the VB/VE research department (contact details on the VB/VE research webpages).
Having had IPS and GBTS 2023 published I believe that VE’s visitor attractions report, usually published in early summer, is the next major annual survey report we can look forward to. There is no release date yet for it. I will remind you all when it, or any other research or reports of national significance are published.
GBTS Q4 and provisional 2023 domestic overnight stays results published
Great Britain Tourism Survey (GBTS) the national survey of domestic overnight stay quarter four (Q4) survey results was published this week alongside the provisional results for 2023. The headlines figures generally show a decline in trips and value in 2023 as compared to 2022, particular around holiday trips, an especially important trip purpose, for well-established popular rural and urban destinations, not least in the main summer season. This downturn is in line with the mainly anecdotal reports received from our largely well-establish, popular rural and urban inland and coastal destination membership. There are of course outlayers and exceptions to every generalised rule.
The full year results are, as ever, subject to normal review as more information becomes available. Beyond that, this year there are apparently some concerns about the new methodology adopted in 2021 a covid disrupted year and subsequently used for 2022 and 2023. Colleagues will recall that there was no GBTS in 2000 during the peak of the covid restrictions.
As a consequence, the methodology is under review and it is now intended to re-run the 2022 and 2023 results, the first two full post pandemic years, once the review is concluded and the methodology suitable adjusted. This will impact on GB results and on the subsets for all the Home Nations and English regions, all of which will in due course receive revised statistics for both 2022 and 2023. Receiving revised historic data can be problematic depending on what usage the original has already been put to. Revision is unavoidable and preferable to the alternative options, all of which would involve carrying on regardless and compounding identifiable issues in each subsequent year.
Colleagues will already be aware methodology changes made during the covid period means that post and pre covid (2019 inclusive) GBTS reports and results are not comparable. At best most destination managers view this a regrettable and perhaps a little unhelpful when trying to manage an ongoing post-covid recovery. Again it falls into the unavoidable category as change in methodology was overdue and doing it when tourism was in chaos was a good, if not better, time than any other.
I would urge colleagues reading this year’s report(s) not to skip the “technical stuff” at the head of the document. The short description of the methodical review, in this instance, is critical to the proper interpretation and understanding of confidence levels. The more detailed material referenced and linked within it will be of greater use to those more directly involved in the routine use and/or production of local tourism statistics.
The Visit Britain/Visit England (VB/VE) version of the report which majors on GB and English regional results, contains links in its introduction to the VisitScotland and Visit Wales reports which giving a similar GB overview and specific to Home Nation data.
The VB/VE reports summary states:
- The current data show a decline in 2023 overnight trips by 7% for both Great Britain and England.
- These declines seem to be driven by holiday trips, which dropped by 14%, and represent the second largest share of trips (32% in Britain and 31% in England).
- On the other hand, UK overnight stays as part of an overseas trip show an increase of 14% in Britain and 19% in England (implying an increase in outbound trips).
- In 2023, a city or large town was a destination type with the largest share, 44% in Britain and 45% in England.
- 45% of overnight trips in Britain / England included serviced accommodation.
And the text in the accompanying graphic tables states:
2023 domestic overnight trips in Great Britain.
- 117.3m trips (down 7% vs 2022)
- £30.9bn total spend (down 6% vs 2022 in nominal terms, down 12% in real terms)
- £264 spend per trip (up 1% vs 2022 in nominal terms, down 6% in real terms)
2023 domestic overnight trips in England
- 99.2m trips (down 7% vs 2022)
- £25.7bn total spend (down 7% vs 2022 in nominal terms, down 13% in real terms)
- £259 spend per trip (up 1% vs 2022 in nominal terms, down 6% in real terms)
The statement regarding the methodology review in the full report makes it very clear that there are particular concerns regarding the last quarter of 2023 and the scale of declines reported between Q4 2022 and Q4 2023. It gives the example of a 20% GB decline in overall trips and this being thought to be improbably and not supported by other sources. As a consequence the Q4, the report focuses almost entirely on the more robust full year results.
The summary makes reference to what I believe is a new category of accommodation usage introduced in 2021, “overnight stays as part of an overseas trip”. I have no recollection of any such a category appearing in or before 2019 GBTS or UKTS before it. Having noted a 14% decline in holiday trips in bullet point 2, the summary goes on to say in bullet 3: “On the other hand, UK overnight stays as part of an overseas trip show an increase of 14% in Britain and 19% in England (implying an increase in outbound trips)”.
The bracketed comment “implying an increase in outbound trips” is intriguing. We would of course concur with the assessment and would probably go much further, regarding the very obvious negative impact of domestic outbound travel on domestic tourism.
Personally, I was taken slightly aback by the comment and the use of the word “implies”. Based largely upon historic experience of the pre 2020 GBTS data sets, I would have reasonably expected colleague in ONS and the Tourist Boards to know what the outbound trip figure might be, or at least what they might be looking like at this point in the year. More importantly I would fully have expect the annual GBTS report to include data and specific comparative comment on domestic outbound trips, as they traditional did pre pandemic. The absence of such comment in the 2021 and 2022 report, I am embarrassed to say seems to have passed me by until now, although I don’t appear to be alone in this. I am assuming this may be down to covid and post covid disruption and not due to any lack of interest in key national data on my part.
The outbound data, I had erroneously assumed, was derived from the GBTS survey itself, a fault in memory. On reflection and on checking, I was reminded that it actually comes from the International Passenger Survey (IPS) and was indeed routinely included within the old style GBTS annual reporting. I also believe that the revised IPS is undergoing similar methodological review and that some of the data recently available is likely to be re-run (?). I am therefore assuming (hoping) that the absence of domestic out bound data is an implication of the ongoing methodology reviews on both new survey methodologies, rather than any conscious decision made by the tourist boards partnership not to include contextually vital outbound domestic (IPS run by ONS) comparison figure in the new GBTS annual reports.
Rather than delaying circulating a reminder of the availability of the latest GBTS annual report and some brief comment on the detail until I have bottomed out what is or isn’t occurring with the domestic outbound figures, something which could take days or even weeks, I am publishing the reminder and commentary now. I do so with some reluctance and apologies in advance to colleagues in ONS and the National Boards. I have no desire to set hares running unnecessarily or to fallout with colleagues whose work I have the greatest admiration for. I am very hopeful that I have either got entirely the wrong end of the stick or that there is a very good, preferably tempory reason why outbound figure aren’t or can’t be included in the new style GBTS reports.
If, however, it does transpire that the use of outbound domestic tourism figure has been dropped within the GBTS annual reporting process, I would hope that most colleagues and certainly those in destination management, would agree that this would be a serious retrograde step. Denying, as it does, tourism practitioners and lay statistics users’ easy access, to a single source of vital headline data which puts the performance of UK/GB, Home Nation and English regional overnight trips in their full and proper context. It also forms an important part of the lobbying tool box when seeking to evidence the need for appropriate support at differing levels for domestic tourism.
I will let you know what I find out and what, if anything, might need to be done as a result to ensure this information is included in future GBTS annual reports or, failing that, is made available in a comparable form elsewhere.
The 2023 VB/VE report, including links to the other board’s reports can be accessed at:
https://www.visitbritain.org/research-insights/great-britain-domestic-overnight-trips-latest-results
British Destinations