Nate Diaz vs. Jorge Masvidal 2: B/R Staff Predictions

Five years ago, it was the biggest thing in sports.

But this weekend it's a little different.

Old cage rivals Jorge Masvidal and Nate Diaz, whose memorable engagement at UFC 244 provided the origin story for the promotion's "BMF" belt, will get back together in a boxing ring for a 10-round light heavyweight bout atop a Saturday card in Southern California.

It's an attempt at a return to relevance for both men, neither of whom is still officially connected to Dana White's company. Masvidal last appeared in the Octagon for a three-round loss to Gilbert Burns at UFC 288 in Miami in April 2023, while Diaz submitted Tony Ferguson in his last official bout while running out his contract seven months earlier.

Masvidal beat Diaz at Madison Square Garden when a cage-side doctor stopped the fight because of damage from cuts around Diaz's right eye. The boxing match is being billed as "Last Man Standing" and will be contested at 175 pounds at the Honda Center in Anaheim.

The B/R combat team got together to discuss the bout and ponder how it might turn out. Take a look at what we came up with and drop a thought in the comments.

When: Saturday, 9 p.m. ET

Where: Honday Center, Anaheim, California

How to Watch: Streaming on PPV.com, DAZN and UFC Fight Pass

Undercard

Daniel Jacobs vs. Shane Mosley

Anthony Pettis vs. Chris Avila

Sean Garcia vs. Amado Vargas

Devin Cushing vs. Manny Correa

Two past-prime athletes in their sport of choice want one last bite at the apple.

It must be boxing.

It's been nearly five years since Diaz and Masvidal last met in a combat arena, so basing this weekend's pick on the way things went in their 2019 encounter seems silly.

And neither has exactly been successful since, with Diaz splitting a pair of fights across 2021 and 2022, while Masvidal dropped four in row before retiring from the cage in 2023.

But while a .500 record is hardly worthy of favorite status, it's hard to argue Diaz looked substantially better than Masvidal in recent outings. He dropped a decision to not-yet champion Leon Edwards at UFC 263 but had the future welterweight king in trouble down the stretch and followed it with a beatdown of Ferguson prior to choking him out.

His tall, lanky frame and unorthodox movement make him a difficult puzzle to solve for the best of foes, which probably means a slower foe like Masvidal, without the opportunity to deliver knees, elbows or any other non-punching strikes, simply won't have answers.

A dramatic KO would be nice, but it seems more likely to devolve into a slow plod to the finish line before the Stockton slapper is rewarded on the scorecards.

Prediction: Diaz by unanimous decision

— Lyle Fitzsimmons

It's hard to make a serious prediction on a fight like this.

After all, both men are former MMA stars, and having them compete in a boxing ring is utterly bizarre. They're both in their late 30s and have seen better days in the arena of combat sports.

So let's establish some facts.

We know that Jorge Masvidal can strike with the best of them. We know Nate Diaz can take punishment with the best of them.

We also know that Diaz's last boxing match against Jake Paul was lackluster at best and downright embarrassing at worst.

So, without knowing anything about Masvidal's boxing skills in a boxing ring, I'll take a leap of faith that Masvidal will win.

But in reality, who really knows? This is a grab for the bag for both men. Are we really going to see both of these guys at their best in boxing?

And would it surprise anyone that something bizarre happens? When you have two combustible elements like both combatants, anything is possible.

Prediction: Masvidal

- Lucky Ngamwajasat

This whole thing reminds me a lot of the time Oscar De La Hoya promoted a trilogy fight between fading MMA legends Chuck Liddell and Tito Ortiz—not just because the two fighters involved are clearly way past their primes, but because the promoters seem to be grossly overestimating how much people actually want to see these guys compete.

The truth is that, in 2024, fight fans really aren't that interested in Masvidal or Diaz anymore.

At the height of his career, Masvidal was both a serious welterweight contender and a solid pay-per-view draw, but those days are clearly over, as he has lost four straight fights to Kamaru Usman (twice), Colby Covington and Gilbert Burns.

The same can be said of Diaz. He once challenged Benson Henderson for the UFC lightweight title and anchored a handful of massive pay-per-views opposite Conor McGregor and Masvidal, but he's been little more than a punching bag for the last few years of his career—first in the UFC, then in the boxing ring against Jake Paul, which was a far more damning appraisal of his ability than any of his Octagon losses.

Both fighters are obviously husks of their former selves, which makes this boxing match a hard sell. The promoters were clearly hoping that their shared penchant for trash talk and press conference brawls would drum up interest, but it's doubtful even that will be enough, as both guys are almost 40, which makes all their pre-fight bravado feel immature and actually a bit sad.

But I digress. You're here for a prediction, not my complaining.

Arguably the worst thing about this Masvidal vs. Diaz rematch is that it seems utterly pointless. Masvidal beat the brakes off the Californian the first time they fought. It wasn't close at all. Sure, Diaz probably could have continued despite the gargantuan cut that Masvidal opened on his face, but he was losing decisively by that point, and he was not going to turn things around, contrary to all of the myth-making about his prowess in the championship rounds.

Things won't be any different in this rematch. Masvidal is a better boxer. He hits much harder. He has a good chin—certainly good enough to withstand Diaz's offense, which has never been particularly potent. Unless this ends up looking like Anderson Silva and Chael Sonnen's recent exhibition bout in Brazil, which was a glorified sparring match, it follows the plot of Masvidal vs. Diaz 1.

Masvidal lands more, lands harder, and probably finishes Diaz, and most of us will be wondering why it needed to happen at all.

Prediction: Masvidal

- Tom Taylor