The 5 Biggest Overpays of 2024 NBA Free Agency Already

The opening of 2024 NBA free agency didn't spark quite the spending frenzy as some previous iterations, but cash came showering down across the Association nevertheless.

A little too much cash in some cases, if we're being honest.

To be clear, none of the early expenditures comes off as abjectly egregious. No one has thrown $64 million at Timofey Mozgov or anything.

In relative terms, though, there have been overpays. That doesn't mean these are bad players or poor investments. Rather, these could simply be a case of projected production lagging behind these big pay rates.

Let's rank the five worst offenders of the offseason so far.

There were certainly scenarios in which Klay Thompson exited this offseason with an even more considerable contract in hand.

And it's easy to let the imagination run wild with possibilities of what could happen with him on the receiving end of drive-and-kick deliveries from Luka Dončić and Kyrie Irving.

However, this still feels a little steep for someone who could spend their twilight years primarily functioning as a perimeter shooting specialist.

Thompson, for the record, remains dominant from distance. His 268 triples this past season were fourth-most in the league, and while his 38.7 percent connection rate was the second-worst of his career, that's still a well-above-average mark.

The problem is he's become pretty one-note with his contributions since missing consecutive seasons to leg injuries (first a torn ACL, then a torn Achilles tendon). A career-high 61.1 percent of his shots this past season came from beyond the arc, and while you like to see him lean on his go-to strength, this also reflects that there isn't a ton left in his arsenal beyond it.

Those injuries and age have done irreparable damage to his defense, but they also nearly silenced the volume of his inside-the-arc offense.

It's fair to wonder, then, if shooting alone will make him worth this kind of coin through his age-34, -35 and -36 campaigns.

Maybe that's all the Mavs are expecting from him, but if he struggles with consistency on his shot or can't hold his own defensively, then this could be the kind of pickup that's more notable for the name recognition than the actual on-court return on investment.

Toronto effectively tipped its hand about a contract like this coming for Immanuel Quickley by making him the foundation of its return from the December deal that sent OG Anunoby to New York.

The Raptors clearly valued the 25-year-old's current skill set and chances for expansion over time, and this is a mostly understandable investment in both.

It's still a mountain of money for someone who has spent most of his first four NBA seasons as a high-end reserve and not a primary playmaker. Granted, he looked good as a starting lead guard in Toronto after the trade—he averaged 18.6 points, 6.8 assists and just 1.8 turnovers while shooting 39.5 percent from three—but there's only so much to extrapolate from 38 games for a lottery-bound bottom-feeder.

Quickley could be worth this type of money, but that's projecting a good amount of growth from him. He only turned 25 in June, so time could be on his side. And even if he's revealed to be more of a secondary distributor than a top decision-maker, that could be fine, since Scottie Barnes initiates so much of Toronto's offensive actions.

All of that said, Quickley's first four seasons have pushed him into the pretty-good-to-good territory. This contract requires leveling up to the really-good-to-great tier.

Maybe that leap happens, maybe it doesn't. Toronto will be on the hook for this money regardless. And it's fair to wonder if the Raptors could have negotiated their way down a bit knowing Quickley's restricted status meant they had the right to match any offer sheet, which, it's worth noting, players have had trouble finding recently as teams have seemingly wanted to avoid tying up their cap space through the moratorium period.

When the Pacers and Pascal Siakam reached this agreement during the pre-free agency exclusive negotiating window, it came with zero sticker shock attached.

If this wasn't preordained once Indiana coughed up three first-round picks to lure him away from the Toronto Raptors, the fate was sealed once it promptly produced the franchise's first Eastern Conference Finals appearance in a decade.

And, to be frank, this isn't the most Indiana could have offered. While the Pacers gave Siakam a four-year max, they could have taken things farther with a five-year, $245.3 million mammoth deal if they wanted.

It's hard to hate this deal, in other words, especially since cap space isn't quite as critical in a non-destination market like Indianapolis. It's also fair to not be fully convinced Siakam is worth as much as he received.

This is superstar money, and he just isn't one.

The 30-year-old is a two-time All-Star and two-time All-NBA honoree. He also has never made All-NBA first team and didn't crack any of the All-NBA rosters in either of the past two seasons.

Siakam is a good scorer and capable secondary playmaker, but he isn't a standout in either category. He shoots a shade below average from three (34.6 percent this past season) and doesn't take enough long-distance attempts to truly space the floor (3.1 per outing). He is a solid and versatile defender, but he's not a spectacular one.

The Raptors seemingly conceded they couldn't build a great team with Siakam as their best player. The question the Pacers face is whether they can contend with him as their second option. At this price point, they better hope that's possible.

OG Anunoby's impact on the Knicks was instant and enormous. It was also relatively short-lived, as multiple bouts with the injury bug caused multiple stints on the sideline, including the bulk of the Bockers' second-round series loss to the Pacers.

Because injuries are such a common enemy of the two-way swingman—he's topped 50 games in just one of the last four seasons—he figured to be a tricky player to price in free agency. New York's decision-makers disagreed with that assessment and handed over this mammoth agreement (which features both a player option and a trade kicker) during the exclusive window.

It's a huge bet on a number of things, not the least of which is Anunoby's availability issues improving. As much as he helped this team—the Knicks went 20-3 while posting a towering plus-22.6 net rating with him during the regular season—he's obviously helpless if he can't hit the hardwood. At this pay rate, New York can't be expecting him to miss 27.5 games a year, but that's what he's averaged over the past four seasons.

It's also a big investment in chemistry and fit. Clearly, this core clicked once the 26-year-old's all-purpose defense and low-maintenance, high-efficiency offense was added to the fold. And the hope is things will be even better now that Mikal Bridges—almost a carbon copy of Anunoby in terms of what they bring inside the lines—has rejoined the Villanova crew.

The Knicks don't have the star power of a typical contender, though. Jalen Brunson is a certified star, and Julius Randle has played at an All-Star level before, but that's it.

Anunoby might be making star money, but he's really a star role player. He has never been an All-Star nor an All-NBA honoree. His lone piece of all-league recognition is an All-Defensive second-team selection in 2022-23. This is not the resume you'd associate with a $212.5 million player.

If New York makes a title run with this nucleus, it won't worry about the finances. If a championship never materializes, though, hindsight may have a hard time figuring out how Anunoby secured an average annual salary of $42.5 million.

If Patrick Williams was a little older or not a relatively recent top-five pick (No. 4 in 2020), he could have been a candidate to sign a prove-it pact this offseason. His game has shown little discernible growth across four NBA campaigns, and half of those seasons were hugely impacted by injuries.

Yet, that's not how the Bulls operate. They have been stubbornly committed to their core—though that grip appears to be loosening finally—and here showed their stubborn commitment to the idea the 22-year-old may yet make good on those old Kawhi Leonard 2.0 talks.

This is an upside wager on someone who has yet to display even hints of tapping into that potential. He looks more or less like the same player he was as a teenage rookie in the Windy City. He debuted in 2020-21 with a 10.5 player efficiency rating, a 56.2 true shooting percentage and a minus-2.4 box plus/minus. This past season, he had an 11.0 PER, a 55.3 true shooting percentage and a minus-2.3 BPM.

Williams shoots threes at a solid clip (career 41 percent), but he doesn't take enough of them to demand heavy defensive attention (2.8 attempts per game). His two-point percentage has backtracked each of the past two seasons, most recently bottoming out at just 47.4 percent. He offers versatility on defense but isn't a high-impact player on that end. He's had a negative defensive box plus/minus in two of the past three seasons.

Chicago can't be thinking all of the above is worth an annual $18 million salary, right? This has to be about him growing into something greater, doesn't it? But what's the basis for that belief beyond his age? What developmental milestones has he hit to convince these decision-makers he's on the right track? What about the organization's developmental program makes people believe this team will bring out his best?

The Bulls surely felt Williams was too valuable of an asset to let walk, but that was never a risk due to his restricted status. They could have let the market set his rate, or at least let him shop around for an offer sheet and quite possibly discover the dollars he envisioned being there weren't actually on the table.

They should have negotiated for something better than a contract of this size for someone with these stats and few, if any, signs of improvement.

Unless otherwise noted, statistics courtesy of Basketball Reference and NBA.com.

Zach Buckley covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on X, @ZachBuckleyNBA.