County-commissioned studies from a decade ago that predicted air carriers serving the Aspen-Pitkin County Airport would by now be phasing out the only commercial aircraft serving the market overstated the imminence of the CRJ-700’s retirement.
But how much longer the plane, which was last manufactured in 2011, can be expected to viably service the airport, known as ASE, for commercial carriers and what aircraft is best suited to eventually take its place remain central concerns as the community considers whether to modify the ASE airfield in a way that would allow larger airplanes.
Consultants studying the airport for Pitkin County predicted in 2013 that the CRJ-700 fleet would be phased out “sometime in the next decade,” with retirements beginning in 2018. Half the fleet would be retired by 2021, with planes no longer in use by 2025, according to presentations delivered to Pitkin County commissioners on Nov. 19, 2013, and Dec. 16, 2014. That same analysis was referenced in studies conducted in 2014 and 2018 and was presented as a central rationale justifying the airside modification now predicted to cost $500 million (and between $200 million and $300 million for a new terminal), according to Aspen-Pitkin County Airport Director Dan Bartholomew. This project would see the current 95-foot wingspan restriction rise to 118 feet, allowing in what airport officials have described as a new generation of jets, which have wider wingspans. It also would open ASE to older and larger planes flown both commercially and by private pilots and charter operators.
That prediction about the CRJs being well on their way to retirement by now hasn’t borne out in the time frame presented. SkyWest, which operates flights for the three commercial carriers serving Aspen, is flying about 16% fewer CRJ-700s today than in 2018.
“The CRJ-700 has a demonstrated record providing exceptional service to Aspen, and we expect it to remain a vital part of our dual-class fleet for many years to come,” according to a SkyWest spokesperson.
J.D. Ingram, a principal at Jviation, which authored the 2014 study, told Aspen Journalism that the retirement outlook for the CRJ has changed since those initial predictions were made.
“At the time of the study in 2014, the CRJ-700 anticipated retirement was accurately stated,” Ingram wrote in an email. “Post the study, the aircraft manufacturer (Bombardier) worked closely with the primary commercial operator of the aircraft (SkyWest) to extend the life cycle of the aircraft. This effort was successful and resulted in an addition of approximately 15,000 engine cycles thus delaying the retirement for another 10 or more years (depending on aircraft usage).”
A representative of MHIRJ Aviation, which is in charge of maintaining the CRJ fleet, told Aspen Journalism that the oldest CRJ-700s are now only about halfway through their life cycles, which, with proper upkeep and maintenance, can extend as long as 30 to 40 years.
However, if another, more economically attractive aircraft presents itself, airlines may decide to phase out the CRJ-700, even if it is still capable of flying.
“The difference between it could operate for 20 years and it would operate for 20 years is a big distinction,” Brad Jacobsen, chief operating officer and executive vice president of the consulting firm Jacobsen Daniels that worked on the 2023 aviation demand forecast component of the 2023 airport layout plan update, said in an April meeting of the Airport Advisory Board. “You can maintain them. That’s happened before, it could happen here. Doesn’t it make economic sense? Probably not.”
Amory Lovins, president of the local nonprofit group Aspen Fly Right, which has been advocating against an airfield modification that would allow larger planes, said an airplane’s rated lifetime can be extended repeatedly and the “tough and reliable” CRJ-700 is a good candidate for such continued life extensions.
“Aviation operators don’t retire older planes based on calendar ages or rules of thumb. They meticulously analyze specific planes in specific markets, choose the best and safely fly older planes as long as they need to and can make a profit,” according to Aspen Fly Right’s essay from January 2023. “The airlines’ planes aren’t vanishing.”
What the predictions said
Consultants working on behalf of the county conducted a three-phase air service planning study from 2013 to 2018 after the Federal Aviation Administration rejected an airport layout plan (ALP) in 2012 that included a second fixed-based operator and moving the runway to the west. That plan maintained an existing 320-foot separation between the centerline of the runway and the centerline of the taxiway, an unusually narrow gap for Aspen’s airport class that results in the 95-foot wingspan limit enforced at ASE.
The FAA said it would not approve the ALP with the 320-foot separation unless there was evidence that the airport cannot meet the standardized 400-foot separation. The county later determined that, with modifications, ASE could accommodate the 400-foot separation.
The first study, conducted by Mead & Hunt in 2013, stated that the CRJ-700 would reach its life cycle “something in the next decade” due to “indications from the manufacturer that the CRJ-700’s useful flying cycle should be similar to the 50-seat CRJ-100 and CRJ-200.” Those two smaller aircrafts would be phased out around their 15- to 17-year lifecycle due to CRJs’ having life-limiting parts that preclude them from flying past a certain age, according to the 2013 study. However, SkyWest currently has 106 CRJ-200s in its fleet.
In their November 2013 presentation, Mead & Hunt consultants said they were expecting that more than half of the CRJ-700 fleet in the U.S. would be phased out by 2021. First retirements were estimated to begin in 2018. The 2014 Phase II study presentation made by Jviation said the CRJ-700 would be completely retired by 2025.
However, as of this month, SkyWest Airlines, which operates United, Delta and American flights to and from Aspen, is flying about 16% fewer CRJ-700s in 2023, with 117 of them in the sky, than it did at the beginning of 2018, when 136 CRJ-700s were in operation. The 2023 aviation demand forecast produced as part of the airport layout plan update estimated their average age at about 17 years old — the oldest being 24. Local air service consultant Bill Tomcich noted that many of the CRJ-700s that were flying for United were repainted and are now flying for American, and many of the planes have gone through maintenance to extend their life cycles. He told Aspen Journalism that he believes the planes could be in service “at least through the end of the decade if need be.”
Pitkin County Manager Jon Peacock told Aspen Journalism that the 2025 mark should not be taken too literally. “It gave us an indication of how quickly the aircraft may come out of the market. But really, that precision doesn’t matter as much when you’re talking about planning over decades.”
County airport planning consultants now say it’s “reasonable to assume” that the regional jet that links Aspen to up to nine different airports can provide reliable service at ASE for at least another 12 to 15 years for the younger aircraft.
The “life-limiting” parts that were mentioned in the first study refer to engine parts that require replacement at a certain point in time, according to Ross Mitchell, vice president of communications for MHIRJ and who also worked for Bombardier before the CRJ series was sold to the Mitsubishi Heavy Industries subsidiary in 2020. “But you can use either engines that are already built and not being used to replace life-limited parts, or you can get supplies from the manufacturer, General Electric.”
The CRJ-700’s airframe is certified for 80,000 flight cycles (takeoffs and landings), which corresponds to about 30 to 40 years, according to Mitchell. “Only the very earliest models of the [CRJ-700] have sort of reached the halfway point,” Mitchell said. “When we did inspections on the airplanes, they were still in very good condition.”
However, just because the aircraft might technically be able to fly that long does not mean that carriers will keep them in the skies. That comes down to a question of economics and whether a viable replacement aircraft is available to serve ASE.
“I think the market life (of the CRJ-700) is probably going to be shorter than the physical life,” Peacock said.
Bartholomew said it comes down to a business decision by the airlines.
“If it gets to a point where they say that it is no longer an economical aircraft to fly or the prices get too high, the aircraft’s just not going to be business sense for them to do it. That’s where the question comes into play,” Bartholomew said. “That could be next week, that could be 15 years from now. Nobody knows.”
Mitchell said the CRJ-700 can fly beyond the end of the decade, but he agreed that it will depend on the airlines’ intentions and whether they find the replacement aircraft.
Density altitude and the E-175
In other mountainous regional markets, the CRJ-700 phaseout is occurring as airlines rely more heavily on the in-production Embraer E-175.
The E-175 meets ASE’s current wingspan restriction but, according to a 2018 aircraft feasibility study performed for the county, has a performance issue because of Aspen’s specific conditions. Density altitude refers to thin air at higher elevations, exacerbated by summer temperatures that make air even thinner, decreasing aircraft performance. Due to ASE’s summer heat and 7,820-foot elevation, the heavier E-175 might not be able to operate here year-round.
But SkyWest announced Oct. 26 the order of 19 new Embraer E-175 jets that will be placed under a flying agreement with United Airlines and are intended to replace United’s CRJ-700 fleet. Deliveries of the new Embraer aircraft will begin late next year and continue through 2026. As of this month, SkyWest operates 235 E-175s.
“We’ve been working with United on this deal for a while, and United has been extremely supportive of us to continue to get a very good complete [E-175] fleet in their large dual-class scope with them,” SkyWest Inc. chief commercial officer Wade Steel said in the company’s third-quarter conference call, adding that this agreement was made between SkyWest and Embraer, United and GE, which made the engines. SkyWest Inc. is the holding company for SkyWest Airlines and SkyWest Leasing, an aircraft leasing company.
SkyWest didn’t address the question of whether a solution has been identified that would overcome the E-175’s summer density-altitude problem at ASE.
Before the SkyWest announcement about the E-175 order, Bartholomew on Sept. 19 told a joint meeting of the Pitkin County commissioners and Aspen City Council that the airlines were in the process of getting the E-175 into Aspen in the next 12 to 18 months. “They want to make sure it’s safe to operate here. So, they have to test it, there’s some configuration changes … and they need to train pilots,” he said.
The airport is prepared for the E-175 after recent parking position modifications that allow the new aircraft to come in. The airport also has obtained four new ramps — the movable stairs passengers and crew use for entering and exiting the aircraft — to accommodate both the CRJ-700 and E-175.
SkyWest has already replaced its CRJ-700s with E-175s at Gunnison and Sun Valley airports. Those planes are equipped with the Wide Area Augmentation System, or WAAS, which uses satellite navigation to provide more precise guidance. This technology improves safety and allows the equipped planes to access runways in poor weather conditions, according to the FAA’s website.
Chris Pomeroy, airport director of Sun Valley Airport, where this transition happened in 2017, said the new technology has improved their reliability even during snowstorms. Gunnison airport Director Rick Lamport said the WAAS-equipped E-175 are able to operate in weather and wind conditions in which the CRJ-700 could not, such as at night when the wind is blowing in the wrong direction. He also said that SkyWest’s E-175 fleet is larger than the CRJ-700 fleet, which has improved the airport’s reliability when an aircraft gets grounded.
If the E-175 is to come here, Peacock said it doesn’t negate the need for the airfield-modification plan that would allow planes with wingspans greater than 95 feet to operate. “The FAA is pushing to remove modification of standards regardless of airline orders,” he said. “Our runway is facing significant maintenance issues that keep these discussions urgent.”
He also mentioned that the E-175 won’t help with community goals that call for a 30% reduction in both emissions and noise. “It’s a bit larger than the CRJ-700, is a bit noisier and has higher emissions per passenger,” he said.
Other future alternatives
If the wingspan restriction is lifted, the 2023 airport layout plan’s aviation demand forecast anticipates airlines to be operating the A220-100 and the A220-300, beginning in 2032 with increasing operations through 2037. The planes have a 115-foot wingspan and 100 to 120 seats and 130 seats, respectively.
Jacobsen has told county commissioners that he doesn’t think the A220-300 will operate at ASE. He said his firm had to include this larger aircraft in the forecast to get the ALP approved by the FAA and not limit the airport’s future operations.
Performance models for those aircraft get closer to meeting community noise and emission goals.
“If you have the larger aircraft that carries more passengers, you’re having fewer operations,” Bartholomew said, which should lower emissions per passenger even though the emissions for the plane itself would be a bit higher than the CRJ-700’s.
Aspen Fly Right’s essay from May 17, 2023 said that by having more seats, the A220 would indeed emit 19% to 41% less carbon dioxide per landing and takeoff cycle per passenger than the CRJ-700. “This would save total CO2 if the new planes brought no more total passengers and from no farther away. However, the forecasters chose the A220s precisely because their higher capacity and longer range could bring in more people and on new routes.”
In another essay from May 4, Aspen Fly Right noted that the A220 would be slightly quieter than the CRJ-700, it would emit less nitric oxide/nitrogen dioxide per passenger but more per departure. “However, its 115-foot wingspan would require and is being used to justify the $200+-million airside upgrade — thus triggering unstoppable arrivals of bigger, heavier, and possibly dirtier and noisier airline and private planes, so its net climate benefit is unknown and could be negative.”
Pitkin County supports Aspen Journalism with a grant from the Healthy Community Fund. Amory Lovins is also a donor. Aspen Journalism is solely responsible for its editorial content.