CBSSports.com's David Cobb outlined the best- and worst-case 2024 scenarios on Friday for the new Big Ten programs. The Trojans sit in an interesting position going into the season, losing Heisman winning QB Caleb Williams but also overhauling the defensive staff and defensive philosophy for one of the toughest schedules in the nation.
Best Case: College Football Playoffs thanks to some signature wins
If USC beats two of the following four teams: LSU, Michigan, Penn State, Notre Dame, then it's plausible that it could steal one of the final spots in the 12-team CFP. The Trojans have a great opportunity to make an early statement as they open against LSU in Las Vegas before playing at Michigan in their third game. Wins in those two contests would vault the Trojans squarely into the CFP picture and Big Ten title conversation. However, that won't happen without marked defensive improvement as D'Anton Lynn steps in as coordinator following Alex Grinch's dismissal. - Cobb
Peristyle Reaction
This is a fair assessment looking at four of USC's five toughest matchups. Now, assuming there is a notable improvement with USC's defense, the Trojans will be threats in all four games. LSU is the biggest wild card of the games as the season opener, but both teams feel pretty similar, although the Tigers are notably better on the offensive line. Penn State and Notre Dame will be tough, but USC gets the benefit of hosting both opponents, especially the Nittany Lions coming from across the country. Michigan feels like the easiest to chalk up to a loss right now just being on the road against the defending national champs, but there are major changes on the roster. It's not out of the question for USC to take both home games and steal one against Michigan or LSU early.
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Worst Case: No bowl game in 2024
As with UCLA, there are no guaranteed wins on this schedule, and that introduces the doomsday scenario of USC failing to make a bowl. With star quarterback Caleb Williams gone, the Trojans may struggle to find an offensive identity at a time when their defense is in flux. While Lincoln Riley is one of the nation's foremost quarterback gurus, there will inevitably be some drop-off after replacing a generational talent under center. Miller Moss shined at quarterback in the Holiday Bowl, but playing LSU and Michigan away from home in two of the first three games marks a tough introduction to his stint as the full-time starter. An 0-2 mark in those contests would put USC's CFP hopes on life support before the end of September and ratchet up the heat on Riley. A USC team with wounded confidence navigating seven consecutive games -- including four road contests -- against Big Ten opposition could lead to a death spiral. - Cobb
Peristyle Reaction
We've all known the 2024 schedule is a brutal one for the Trojans, especially with the unforgiving start with the Tigers and Wolverines. It could get really bad for USC if it can't ride the fast start. I would argue Utah State is a guaranteed win with some USC-leaning matchups between Rutgers, Wisconsin, UCLA and Nebraska. Minnesota and Maryland are weaker Big Ten opponents, but both will be on the road for USC. UCLA is a rivalry so you never know. Those are seven games USC SHOULD win, but all but one of those teams played in a bowl game last season. Far from cake walks. I see defensive improvements coming and barring injuries, USC finds a way to at least get to bowl eligibility.