College football's least improved teams for 2024 season: Regression looms for eight squads

Conference realignment hit Oregon State harder than any other college football program. Not only are the Beavers without a power conference, but they also saw head coach Jonathan Smith bolt for the Michigan State job and endured a mass roster exodus, which sent nearly every starter from last year's squad elsewhere. This was a 10-win team two years ago and a dark horse Pac-12 title contender in 2023, but as it enters a new era under coach Trent Bray, Oregon State has a lot of work to do. It is not a full-on rebuild, but anything above six or seven wins for the Beavers this season should be viewed as a success.

Brendan Sullivan was a surprise transfer portal entrant late in the 2024 cycle, and his spring departure from Northwestern threw a serious wrench in the Wildcats' outlook for Year 2 under coach David Braun. This program wildly outperformed expectations a year ago, but not only does its league context get much more difficult due to Big Ten expansion; it also has to overcome the loss of its starting signal-caller. The other options in the room do little to ignite confidence in Northwestern's ability to repeat as a bowl team.

There is not much continuity in the UCLA football program this year from both a roster and coaching staff perspective. The Bruins lost most of the top performers on last year's monster defense, including first-round pick Laiatu Latu, and sustained a head coaching change when Chip Kelly left for the offensive coordinator job at Ohio State. New head man DeShaun Foster has no head coaching experience, making him a total wild card atop the Bruins program. One of the few areas of optimism is the return of quarterback Ethan Garbers, who has the potential to flourish in his first full year as the starter.

Jeff Brohm took his alma mater to the ACC Championship Game during his first season at Louisville, but in order to get back there, his massive transfer portal haul needs to deliver results. The Cardinals took more transfers this offseason than any program not named Colorado. Many of them — like quarterback Tyler Shough and wide receivers Ja'Corey Brooks and Caullin Lacy — are starting-caliber players. There is a lot of inherent risk in building a roster primarily through the portal, though. If Louisville returns to the conference title game, it would dramatically outperform expectations for a second-straight year.

Running back Omarion Hampton is one of the best in the nation and should account for plenty of fireworks. The rest of the UNC offense, though, is set for a downturn after star quarterback Drake Maye departed for the NFL. This program relied heavily on Maye's arm to lead the way to victories, as the defense rarely held up its end of the bargain. Texas A&M transfer and projected starter Max Johnson does not have nearly the same upside as the first-round pick who preceded him. A middle-of-the-pack finish in the ACC feels likely for the Tar Heels.

Washington became the first and only Pac-12 team (since its expansion to 12 teams) to finish a regular season undefeated last year en route to the national championship game, but the Huskies' debut Big Ten season will be much more of a grind. With Kalen DeBoer off to Alabama and nearly every player from the 2023 two-deep either embarking on professional careers or seeking opportunities elsewhere, new head coach Jedd Fisch does not have much experienced talent to work with. Incoming transfer quarterback Will Rogers and a solid receiving corps should move the ball with relative ease, but the rest of the squad is loaded with question marks.

The irony of College Football Playoff expansion is that last year's undefeated Florida State team missed the cut, but a slightly worse 2024 Seminoles squad could get into the field. Mike Norvell's team is unlikely to take a massive step back, but the losses at star players at quarterback, running back, wide receiver and defensive line create significant hurdles on the path to a second-straight ACC title. The replacements — all of which came through the transfer portal — could prevent much of a dropoff, but their ceilings are not quite as high as the standouts that came before them.

While there is plenty of continuity at Michigan even amid a coaching change, the 2024 campaign will test the solidity of the foundation Jim Harbaugh built before he departed for the NFL. The primary concern around the Wolverines is their quarterback room, wherein projected starter Alex Orji is a total mystery box. He saw limited action in a rushing role last season and has yet to take meaningful reps as the No. 1 option. Michigan's defense will be among the nation's best, and the offensive line should still be great. But the offensive skill position talent, or lack thereof, makes the Wolverines far more of a national championship dark horse than they were in 2023.