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The Houston Rockets won 41 games in the 2023–2024 season and showed plenty of flashes to keep their fans optimistic about the upcoming year. Houston’s front office has their work cut out for them this offseason, and the team must make strategic additions in free agency to continue building out their roster as they look to take the next step.
There’s one undervalued player available for the right price that Houston should consider signing. It might require a slight overpay, but this player would raise the team’s ceiling and complement both of Houston’s young stars.
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The Rockets’ biggest need
The Rockets have done a great job of building a talented young core that can grow and compete together. The team has two potential franchise cornerstones in guard Jalen Green and big man Alperen Sengun.
The Rockets need a talented shot-creator who can make things happen when the defense tightens in the postseason. This has to be somebody who can be relied upon to create for himself or others with efficiency. Sengun is a great scorer but teams with dominant scoring big men have fared poorly in recent postseason runs, and Green will likely face relentless double teams without a credible perimeter threat alongside him.
The problem with Sengun as a lead scorer
Sengun is a great player, but in the modern NBA big men often struggle to score efficiently in isolation late in games. A great example of this would be Joel Embiid, arguably the most dominant player in today’s game. When the refs swallow their whistles, opponents will hack big men mercilessly. If he fights back, he’ll be more likely to get called for offensive fouls due to the physical disparity.
The Nuggets are a perfect example of a team with balance: Nikola Jokic was the star, but the team also had Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. as co-stars who could operate efficiently from the perimeter.
Emoni Bates would connect Green and Sengun
As a shotmaking wing, Bates would be a great connector between the Rockets’ two current stars. Green is a dynamic athlete who struggles with efficiency. Meanwhile, Sengun is a skilled interior player and an efficient scorer but he struggles to operate from the perimeter.
What the Rockets really need is somebody who can score from all three levels, and do so efficiently. Bates still has room to grow in the efficiency department, but for just being 20 years old and available for a reasonable price, he’s already shown three-level scoring potential.
Right now, he’s at his best attacking the paint, but he has already shown a smooth shooting stroke and he can splash threes off of passes from teammates or off the dribble.
Perhaps the most enticing skill Bates brings to the table is his shot-making potential in the mid-range. He can drive at defenders, stop short, and pull up to sink jumpers over the outstretched hands of the defenders. Bates uses his height and high release point to his advantage in getting the shot off, and it allows him to create a good look at the basket almost anytime he wishes.
This is one of the most valuable skills in basketball, because it means that Bates can essentially serve as a safety valve to bail out his team whenever the rest of the offense bogs down around him.
The young wing is a restricted free agent who represents the exact kind of high-upside young talent that the Rockets should be looking for. He is 6’10” and brings advanced shot-making ability as well as outside shooting and creation upside.
As a restricted free agent, the Cavaliers have the right to match any offers he receives. However, Cleveland is unlikely to overpay and Bates is undervalued for a player who was once considered one of the game’s future stars.
In high school, he was often considered a candidate to be drafted first overall. However, Bates struggled in college and ran into legal troubles. He fell to the second round where the Cavs selected him with the 49th overall pick.
What kind of deal would it take to acquire Bates?
Because Bates is a restricted free agent, the Cleveland Cavaliers have the right to match any deal that he signs with another team. This means it will likely require a slight overpay to convince Cleveland it isn’t worth matching, which would allow the Rockets to pry him away.
Something in the $5 to $7 million range would likely be more than enough to give the Cavs hesitation. Alternatively, Cleveland might balk at a long-term deal given that Bates is unproven at the highest level. If the Rockets offered him $4 to $6 million per year, but extended the length of the deal to three or four years, that might be enough to call Cleveland’s bluff and steal the promising young wing away from northeast Ohio.
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