The pros of a potential Vladimir Guerrero Jr. contract extension

When spending hundreds of millions of dollars, there’s never one cut-and-dry viewpoint. There is nuance involved when it comes to inking your franchise player to a monster deal, which is why the prospect of locking up Vladimir Guerrero Jr. isn’t such a straightforward decision.

Yesterday, I went over the cons of said decision and entertained the devil on the Blue Jays’ proverbial shoulder, while today, it’s time to listen to the angel about why this team should go all-in on Vladdy.

Guerrero is on the upswing

Unlike re-upping someone like Bo Bichette who is having one of the worst seasons of his career, Guerrero is on the upswing. He’s not having a campaign reminiscent of his breakout 2021, but there are glimpses of that potential in his bat this year.

Because the Blue Jays signed him nine years ago when he was only sixteen years old, it feels like Guerrero Jr. is a lot older than he actually is, but now at 25-years-old, he’s still younger than many rookies breaking into the big leagues today.

And when he’s poised to head into free agency at 26-years-old, that’s a rare opportunity to buy into a player who won’t be on the other side of the aging curve for many years to come. Vladdy will be in his prime heading into any contract extension or free agent deal in the year 2026 during his age 27 season.

I’d argue that’s why players like Juan Soto, all of 25-years-old – but entering free agency a year before Guerrero – will be more coveted than any player prior to them not named Shohei Ohtani. Because at that young age, you’re not only getting a lengthy track record in the majors, but you’re also getting a much better shot at sustainability.

The sky-high ceiling

Most Blue Jays fans can already picture the alternate universe hellscape where Guerrero signs long-term with the Yankees or Red Sox, puts up MVP numbers and carries that team to a World Series. Not that he needs a change of scenery to unlock that potential, but many would agree from the second he landed in the majors, he can be a top 10 player in the game.

Fortunately, because he’s so young, there’s lots of runway left for Guerrero to figure this thing out. Maybe not the 2021 iteration that almost won the MVP, but somewhere in the 2.5 to 3.5 win season would be a nice compromise for his late 20s to early 30s.

It’s not a “he’s done it before, he can do it again” mentality. It’s a “he’s done it before, he could do it again” proposition that’s very tantalizing for a team like the Blue Jays.

Vladdy, the bankable baseball product

Baseball is an entertainment product, but it’s also a business. In order to sell that product, you need a bankable name (or names) to draw eyes towards the business. And there is nobody more marketable on the Blue Jays both domestically and internationally than Guerrero Jr.

For all the heat that he took for being named as the cover athlete for MLB The Show 24, that decision wasn’t made solely for his production as a baseball player; he’s a marquee athlete. People recognize and adore Vladdy, even if he doesn’t produce MVP-calibre numbers.

Shi Davidi outlined some potential roster machinations in one of his latest pieces, and among them were lineup pictures for the next several seasons. Forecasting ahead to 2026 without the likes of Bichette and Guerrero, Toronto’s lineup has some colossal holes to fill.

For me, that’s when it set in that a Blue Jays team without a franchise player, without a marketable name like Guerrero, is a scary proposition. Finding the next player like Guerrero could take years or might never happen.

If not Vlad, then who?

Without anchoring themselves to a player like Vladdy, the Blue Jays are in danger of setting themselves up for years of wandering through the wilderness searching for a new identity. At least by locking up Guerrero, part of that identity still exists. Conversely, re-building one from scratch takes time, energy, and even more money than one contract extension.

The Blue Jays can flex their financial muscle on the free agent market, but when would a player of Vlad’s calibre come along again? And more importantly, would they be willing to sign in Toronto, with 29 other potential suitors competing against them?

Luckily for the Blue Jays, Vladdy is here right now, and their competitive window is in front of them. By locking him up long-term, this club can prop that window up for several more years, at least to bridge the gap until the next wave of talent reaches this roster.

And that’s the thing; aside from Ricky Tiedemann, there doesn’t appear to be another Vladdy or Bichette in the farm system ready to take the baton from these franchise staples in the short term.

With a middling team in 2017 and 2018, at least the Blue Jays could sell the dream of the “baby Jays” as the next phase of talent to take over. Beyond 2025, there are slim pickings in Toronto’s prospect cupboard when it comes to impact players who can carry this team to the promised land.

In conclusion …

If you asked me one year ago whether the Blue Jays need to lock in Guerrero, I would’ve said they have to feel comfortable walking away from their first baseman. In a “one or the other scenario,” my preference would’ve been Bichette over Guerrero.

Because of Bichette’s track record and a premium on his ability to play shortstop, he felt like the safer bet of the two. But when you’re trying not just to make the playoffs but to win the World Series, do you want to play it safe, or do you want to take a big swing with the potential for a big payoff?

And as much variance as he’s had over his career, as the time comes closer to his potential departure, the fabric of the Blue Jays doesn’t feel complete without Guerrero here on this team.

You only get so many opportunities as a franchise to put your stake in the ground and say “this is our guy, we believe in this guy.” Not that baseball players need that vote of confidence, but at least it shows the team has a desire to be competitive.

If the Blue Jays go all-in on Guerrero, nobody dusts their hands off, steps back and says: “Well, I guess we’re all finished here.” His extension would be the first crucial step towards building or rebuilding a contending Blue Jays team.

A Vladdy extension – like any extension – would be a gamble. I think back to February 2021 when Alex Anthopoulos re-signed Jose Bautista to a five-year $64 million contract extension after Joey Bats came off his unreal 2010 campaign. That might’ve been one of the biggest gambles in Blue Jays history, but it paid off.

Without that anchor, do the Blue Jays make it to the ALCS in 2015 and 2016? I’m not so sure. At some point, the Blue Jays have to plant their flag in the ground for one of these guys on the roster. If there’s one guy who deserves it, it’s Vladdy.